April 2015 Observations and Discussion

[WildWisconsinWeather]

oops

 

Oops, no real warmth showing up next week, so much for a pattern change after Easter lol.  Lay off Maxim, he was only informing, and it's not like it was fantasy land.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

not too shabby

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/test8.gif

 

Yep, our 40s and low 50s and constant rainy days next week sure isn't looking too shabby for you, huh?

[Jaycee]

Yep, our 40s and low 50s and constant rainy days next week sure isn't looking too shabby for you, huh?

Haha.. people like that lowkey drive me nuts. Grasping at straws on cold/raw weather. I mean, I'm not going to hate you for liking that, but it's just so odd to me! Who would rather have temperatures in the 40's/50's in April, vs. low-mid 70's?! It's mind boggling to me. Plus, a cold rain shower is nothing in comparison to a strong storm in my opinion. 

 

--

 

I hope things turn around for you guys in Wisconsin. Talk about the shaft of weather, you guys are it. We haven't been much better but I know you guys are feeling our pain, and atleast our temperatures have been nice. I'm sure severe weather season can make up for the lack of winter. Just hope the temperatures warm up for you guys!

 

Oh, and go Badgers! Grew up in Wisconsin as a die hard packer/badger fan. Screw the statistics favoring Kentucky, we got this

[Maxim]

Oops, no real warmth showing up next week, so much for a pattern change after Easter lol.  Lay off Maxim, he was only informing, and it's not like it was fantasy land.

Did I say next week was supposed to be nice? Easter day is looking mild with temps in the 60s. Meanwhile, everyone else was stating how cold and wet it would be. Take a look at the pattern beyond the 11th, and you'll see a significant pattern flip is still in store for the CONUS. BTW, this week has averaged out ABOVE NORMAL, and next week will be pretty close to average. So yeah, I'd say we're already starting to see the pattern change. Come on, even JB would agree with me on this.

[Maxim]

Yep, our 40s and low 50s and constant rainy days next week sure isn't looking too shabby for you, huh?

Does that not look any different to you than what we have been seeing the past several months? Do you see that massive ridge out in the east? Also, that's for hours 168-240.....

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Haha.. people like that lowkey drive me nuts. Grasping at straws on cold/raw weather. I mean, I'm not going to hate you for liking that, but it's just so odd to me! Who would rather have temperatures in the 40's/50's in April, vs. low-mid 70's?! It's mind boggling to me. Plus, a cold rain shower is nothing in comparison to a strong storm in my opinion. 

 

--

 

I hope things turn around for you guys in Wisconsin. Talk about the shaft of weather, you guys are it. We haven't been much better but I know you guys are feeling our pain, and atleast our temperatures have been nice. I'm sure severe weather season can make up for the lack of winter. Just hope the temperatures warm up for you guys!

 

Oh, and go Badgers! Grew up in Wisconsin as a die hard packer/badger fan. Screw the statistics favoring Kentucky, we got this

 

Thanks for the kind words, NebraskaWx!  Yeah, the last four or five months (basically the winter and early spring) haven't been very enjoyable weather-wise, but we had some nice days in March.  Just been boring as you have documented and I'm sure as has been the case in much of Nebraska.  I'm just biding my time until May-September comes around.  Normally, we have a terrific climo during that period.

 

I am a big Badger fan, hopefully they can persevere, a bit concerned that we used up our hot game of the year.

[Money]

lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040312/gem_asnow_us_24.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040312/gem_asnow_us_24.png

 

Have fun with that Money!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Did I say next week was supposed to be nice? Easter day is looking mild with temps in the 60s. Meanwhile, everyone else was stating how cold and wet it would be. Take a look at the pattern beyond the 11th, and you'll see a significant pattern flip is still in store for the CONUS. BTW, this week has averaged out ABOVE NORMAL, and next week will be pretty close to average. So yeah, I'd say we're already starting to see the pattern change. Come on, even JB would agree with me on this.

 

It did average out that way, but just because a week or two starts to trend warmer doesn't make it a guaranteed pattern change.  I'd wait another week or two.

[Geos]

Falling into the 30s now, but just cloudy. 

I've got nothing but 40s, mostly cloudy weather with chances of showers next week. Very typical for early April around here.

[Hawkeye]

We are due for a wet pattern(eastern Iowa is now 'abnormally dry') and it looks like we're going to get it.  All the models have at least four good rounds of rain and storms Monday-Friday.

[Maxim]

Drought cancel? 

[Tom]

Farmer's are going to like next week's soaking...12z Euro spinning up a pretty strong storm in the central CONUS next Thu/Fri.  GFS is agreeing to some degree.

[BrianJK]

Tom - I took your advice and headed out west...

 

[Geos]

Awesome pictures Brian!

That's the next region of the country I am going to visit. Haven't been further southwest than northwest NM.

 

Nice day today, but windy - high 58°.

[Tom]

Tom - I took your advice and headed out west...

 

IMG_1349.JPGIMG_1365.JPGIMG_1383.JPGIMG_1401.JPG

Revealing God's country from the air...those pics bring back memories when I hiked the Grand Canyon 2 years ago almost to the day.  We started from the south rim and head down to the river @ 7:00am, then back up all in one day, made it up to the top at 7:00pm on the dot...total trip 18 miles.  

 

The majestic beauty of the Grand Canyon is something else when you witness it first hand and to see what the power of water can do over millions of years is mind boggling.  How long did you stay for??  Are you still out there?  I'll be in AZ till the end of April and then heading back home.  Hopefully the weather will be more summer like in Chicago because I'm getting spoiled out here with 80F+ days and full sunshine!

[gosaints]

lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040312/gem_asnow_us_24.png

Looks like you better drive to the northwoods

[BrianJK]

Revealing God's country from the air...those pics bring back memories when I hiked the Grand Canyon 2 years ago almost to the day.  We started from the south rim and head down to the river @ 7:00am, then back up all in one day, made it up to the top at 7:00pm on the dot...total trip 18 miles.  

 

The majestic beauty of the Grand Canyon is something else when you witness it first hand and to see what the power of water can do over millions of years is mind boggling.  How long did you stay for??  Are you still out there?  I'll be in AZ till the end of April and then heading back home.  Hopefully the weather will be more summer like in Chicago because I'm getting spoiled out here with 80F+ days and full sunshine!

 

Went out for a week - started in Phoenix, went up through Sedona, and ended at the canyon.  We had record heat the whole time, that same heat dome that brought the 70s/80s to the midwest on Wednesday.  Phoenix was 95-100, Sedona was upper 80s, and Grand Canyon was low-mid 70s.  And like you said, seeing it in person is absolutely amazing and literally an "awesome" experience. 

[Geos]

62°, breezy and mostly sunny here. Beautiful Easter Day.

Happy Easter to those celebrating it!

 

Grass has finally started greening up beyond patches.

 

Looks like a backdoor cold front is about the crash the party...

[Hawkeye]

Another fantastic day here with a temp near 70.  I'm not sure how much rain we'll get this week.  The models are suggesting a lot of the thunderstorm action will be south and southeast of us and the main low Thursday/Friday may track right over us, which could leave us in a relative dry area with storms to the southeast and defo zone to the nw.

[Seahawkfan]

We should get some decent storm's here where I'm at G.f.s was been pretty consistent over the last several runs.

[Tom]

While I'm enjoying 84F weather, IMBY back at home the temp went from 69F at roughly 6:00pm to a current 43F temp in 2 hours...Ouch!  What a nasty Pneumonia Front.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KILDESPL9#history

 

FWIW, Euro Ensembles backing off the huge ridge that it once predicted for next weekend near the Lakes.  Phase 1 of the MJO in April is colder than normal in the longer range.

[NEJeremy]

Looks to be an active week of severe weather coming up. I'm really focusing on Wednesday for the best tornado potential day and what will probably be my first chase of the season. Looks like central Kansas down to Oklahoma is the prime spot. A lot of the severe weather indices are sky high for Wednesday so not a lot of question marks at this point except for it's still 3 days away and things could slow down enough that timing of the piece of energy wouldn't match up with the right time of day, etc.

[Seahawkfan]

Wednesday possibly Thursday should be interesting for active possible servere weather. It be interesting to see how this plays out and if it hits at the right time of day.

[Maxim]

not feeling too confident about severe weather chances on Thursday for MBY.

[FV-Mike]

 

Looks like some big time rains coming

[Tom]

12z Euro showing some big time storms in IA/N IL Tuesday/Tuesday night...repeat scenario for Wed/Thu.  There is some talk about Tornadic activity during this period and some very heavy rainfall.  Could have some flooding potential with training thunderstorms.

[james1976]

Yes this week is getting interesting. Looks stormy!

[Geos]

12z Euro showing some big time storms in IA/N IL Tuesday/Tuesday night...repeat scenario for Wed/Thu.  There is some talk about Tornadic activity during this period and some very heavy rainfall.  Could have some flooding potential with training thunderstorms.

 

Probably see severe weather south of I-80. Winds are supposed to be easterly until Friday Thursday around here.

 

Only 40s today for highs.

[Maxim]

Probably see severe weather south of I-80. Winds are supposed to be easterly until Friday around here.

 

Only 40s today for highs.

What are you talking about? Winds on Thursday are progged to be S/SW by the majority (if not all) of model guidance. Also, go check the D3 outlook. Enhanced risk makes it all the way up to the WI state line. I still feel as if the best threat will be west of here, though.

[Jaycee]

What are you talking about? Winds on Thursday are progged to be S/SW by the majority (if not all) of model guidance. Also, go check the D3 outlook. Enhanced risk makes it all the way up to the WI state line. I still feel as if the best threat will be west of here, though.

Yeah, I think you guys have an ideal setup. Except supercellular storms will likely form west and become a bow echo by the time it reaches Chicago. I still think you all get nasty weather out there. hope tomorrow boads well for us out in the plains!

[Geos]

What are you talking about? Winds on Thursday are progged to be S/SW by the majority (if not all) of model guidance. Also, go check the D3 outlook. Enhanced risk makes it all the way up to the WI state line. I still feel as if the best threat will be west of here, though.

 

I was just getting at just tonight actually.

Pretty chilly tonight up this way.

 

 

Feels like a mild winter day today.

 

NAM was showing one sharp temperature cut off around here for late Thursday.

 

 

If the colder air is shallow enough I can see severe weather making it to the lake front, but if the thunderstorms ingest that marine air they're done for by the time they reach the shore counties.

 

Best severe weather I've seen has been in May and June.

[gosaints]

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

Nice start to the month.... 

[Maxim]

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

Nice start to the month....

 

lol @ Maine

[Hawkeye]

Thinking back to the discussion last month, wasn't early April supposed to be cold across our region with a warmer pattern showing up mid-month?

[gosaints]

Thinking back to the discussion last month, wasn't early April supposed to be cold across our region with a warmer pattern showing up mid-month?

The LRC fell on its face

[Tom]

Euro has been pumping some nice summer time warmth around the 15th through the extended in the central CONUS, esp from IA and points east.  Might be the first 80's for ORD and places nearby mid month (ish).

[Geos]

Not much rain today, but it definitely is cool. Winds gusting to 20 mph and at 38° currently.

[Maxim]

Nice western trough showing up on the 18z GFS

[Maxim]

Some pretty strong wording from LOT...

 

 

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

PRIMARY TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO
THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE VARIES SOME WITH RESPECT
TO TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 12Z ECMWF ON THE
FASTER/WEAKER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM AND THE NAM/GEM ON THE
SLOWER DEEPER END OF THE SPECTRUM. OFTEN TIMES THE SLOWER GUIDANCE
ENDS UP VERIFYING BETTER WITH THESE STRONGER SYSTEMS...SO TRENDED
THE GRIDS TOWARD THE NAM/GEM SOLUTION. THE GFS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
STRONGER SYSTEM BUT SUSPECT IT IS A BIT TOO FAST.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
CYCLONE CONTINUE TO RAISE RED FLAGS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IN THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH 90-
100KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
40KT+ LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF A TORNADO THREAT VARIES
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS HAVE A MORE BACKED
SURFACE FLOW AND LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE
WORRISOME REGARDING TORNADO THREAT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING ALSO SUGGEST AN UNUSUALLY
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SO FAR EASTWARD
BECOME JUXTAPOSED OVER TOP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 60S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE
PROGGED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SUSPECT THAT EVEN MORNING CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM BLASTING NORTH AND
PLACING ENTIRE CWA IN THE HUMID/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON.

OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A TON OF MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT CANNOT BE
RESOLVED AT THIS DISTANCE...INCLUDING STORM MODE AND COVERAGE. THERE
IS A LOT THAT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY SO A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FAR FROM A SURE THING...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN THERE IS DEFINITELY REASON
FOR CONCERN ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO POTENTIAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.