April 2015 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

How did your call about warm temps turn out for this upcoming week?

Still sucking near the lakes.  2 absolutely beautiful days in a row here. Tomorrow will make 3.  

 

First half of the month had calls of cold.  How did that workout?

[Snowshoe]

Still sucking near the lakes.  2 absolutely beautiful days in a row here. Tomorrow will make 3.  

 

First half of the month had calls of cold.  How did that workout?

 

Well we did have snow on the ground last week.

 

I noticed the GFS has been showing snow potential mid next week.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015041506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

[gosaints]

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

Yep brrrrr.

[Tom]

It's always easy to state the obvious after the fact.  When will anyone have the guts to make a prediction?

[gosaints]

It's always easy to state the obvious after the fact.  When will anyone have the guts to make a prediction?

I stated many times that the calls for cold were over blown.  Over and over stating that models were overdoing it in the long range.  

[Jaycee]

Depends on your perspective.  Yes, Chicago has had a pleasant April for their standards.  I'm coming from summer time weather to days that may potentially be in the upper 40's/low 50's for a few days and that would be a shock to the system.,..not to mention depressing.  think my blood has thinned since being out here!

Tom, I understand you like leg day a ton, but you should probly stop skipping arms... looking pretty small in those pictures bro 

[Geos]

I think there's still the chance of having some well below normal days yet this month. Probably high in the low 40s would be as cool as I would predict. Having snow on April 22nd would be crazy though for this area!

 

Not going to warm up too much more today with a stiff East wind.

[Tom]

I think there's still the chance of having some well below normal days yet this month. Probably high in the low 40s would be as cool as I would predict. Having snow on April 22nd would be crazy though for this area!

 

Not going to warm up too much more today with a stiff East wind.

Remember this snow event last year on April 14th??  This is a pic from my surgeons house on the North Shore...

 

[Tom]

Pretty wet month ahead for large portion of the nation according to the Euro EPS Mean...Farmers in the break basket of the nation will like this look.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/eps_qpf_768_conus_129__22_.png

[Tom]

There has been a delay off of the JAMSTEC site due to a system computing update.  Today it finally has update and here is the model's take for the Summer.  Looks cool and very wet for the heart of the nation. A similar pattern compared to last year's summer which was an ideal summer in my book (except for all the rain and D**n Mosquito's!)

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2015.1mar2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2015.1mar2015.gif

 

 

Looking out towards next Winter....we see a mature looking modiki El Nino and the tongue of warmer waters hugging NW NAMER and a defined cold pocket of water NW of Hawaii.  Last year, this cold pocket wasn't established till later in the season.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1mar2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2015.1mar2015.gif

[Maxim]

How did your call about warm temps turn out for this upcoming week?

7th straight day in a row above 60 at ORD and running a +4.2° departure for the month at this point. Even warmer at MDW (though I suspect the sensor at MDW has a bit of a warm bias.) My call for warmth has been pretty spot on. This week will end up above average for the third week in a row. And no, I never called for warmth next week.

[Maxim]

Still sucking near the lakes. 2 absolutely beautiful days in a row here. Tomorrow will make 3.

 

First half of the month had calls of cold. How did that workout?

yeah if you're within a few miles of the lake then it'll be cooler when winds are onshore, happens every spring. Geos knows about it, lol.

 

What's funny though is that even with easterly winds yesterday, lakeside communities were still in the 60s. Not quite the same today however.

[CentralNebWeather]

From Hastings NE NWS Office this morning:

 

Slightly cooler weather is expected today with highs in the mid 60s. The big story the next several days will be the fairly good chance of appreciable precipitation. Rain chances get started tonight and then are rather good Thursday through Saturday before diminishing on Sunday. Many locations could see 1 to 3 inches of rain between tonight and Sunday morning. High temperatures through the week ahead will generally be in the 60s.

 

What a god send this would be for our area if we could receive this amount of rainfall.  I will post amounts over the weekend for Nebraska folks or others that are interested.

[Tom]

12z Euro is averaging 10-20F below normal the week of the 20th with the possibility of snow in NE/IA and daytime highs in the 30's for a couple days.  Tons of precip from the Plains to the Lakes in this pattern.

[CentralNebWeather]

Sounds good Tom, rain or snow is fine with me.  Our school announced that students should be prepared for postponements or cancellations of sporting events the next several days if this wet weather pattern verifies, (track, soccer, tennis, golf).

[Snowshoe]

Not unusual for this time of year as we wait for things to green up. 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/grb/WxStory/FileL.png

[Snowshoe]

A 200 acre fire forced some evacuations in Necedah, Wis yesterday.

 

[Niko]

Did you go to the sand bar or by the London Bridge canal???  The water in the canal was pristine clear blue water that was pretty chilly.  I'd say in the low 60's.  The runoff from the Colorado Rockies doesn't really warm up till late May believe it or not given how warm temps are there now.  It hit 100F in Lake Havasu yesterday.

 

It was here in SEMI. I was not too thrilled with the water. It was kinda blue I guess, but not crystal clear. The fact that people were just standing in the water talking and drinking, didn't make me wanna swim at all, if you know what I mean. There was no sand bar there. Wish there was, otherwise I would have swam to that bar.

[Tom]

Say it ain't SNOW....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015041518/gfs_asnow_us_31.png

[Maxim]

lol

[Tom]

lol

Your the #1 fan...

[Tom]

I don't remember exactly, but I think it was the longest period Last Winter between "First Flake to last Flake" in N IL.  If there are any snow flakes again this late in April in N IL that would be rather impressive.

[Tom]

Friday looks to be a superb day in Chicago.  I'm sure the bars/restaurants will be crowded watching Game 2 Hawks vs Preds!  I'm kinda jealous I won't be back home watching the games in the local bars.  Hoping the Hawks go a long way this year and bring home the Cup back to Chicago!

[CentralNebWeather]

Hope this image comes true.  Has my area of Central Nebraska close to 3 inches.

 

 

[Geos]

Tomorrow and Saturday look nice, but now Sunday looks wet. Definitely some cold shots coming it looks like along with some freezes for sure. 18z GFS was mainly below normal for the Midwest through the 2nd.

Can't believe the GFS was showing snow for southern New England on the 27th!

[Snowlover76]

Hope this image comes true. Has my area of Central Nebraska close to 3 inches.

 

 

rain.png

Nothing so far here in Lincoln.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro is just awful.  Its pattern the rest of the month looks more like January than late April.  The storm track gets suppressed down to the gulf coast.

[Maxim]

Guess you can blame the -NAO for that. The pattern looks awful for the whole CONUS actually.

[Niko]

OK, so, why is my forecast calling for snow next week??! This better be a Fu*king joke. Last thing in the world I want to see now is snow.

 

Today is gorgeous. Sunshine and temps in the 60s. Gotta like this weather this time of the year.

[Tom]

Looking forward to coming back in May.  CFSv2/Euro/JMA all agreeing to a ridging pattern across the Lakes/Plains/Midwest region.  Warm Phase of the LRC will be cycling through as well.  Here is the May outlook from the JMA.

[Maxim]

OK, so, why is my forecast calling for snow next week??! This better be a Fu*king joke. Last thing in the world I want to see now is snow.

worst climo

[Maxim]

Torching out there at 76°

[Geos]

Reached 74° in Waukegan before the winds turned east. Now in the mid 60s. 

 

Sunday is looking yucky. NE winds with a driving rain.

 

[Madtown]

Snow chances this week in the forecast here.

[Tom]

Looking likely that the ridge will pop right around the time we flip the calendar to May.  00z Euro ensembles looking nice and if the AO/NAO stay negative heading into May, it will have a different effect to the weather pattern and place a trough out in the West/Southwest and a ridge smack dab in the middle of the nation.  The AO/NAO play a different role in late Spring/Summer/early Fall.

[Maxim]

Looking likely that the ridge will pop right around the time we flip the calendar to May.  00z Euro ensembles looking nice and if the AO/NAO stay negative heading into May, it will have a different effect to the weather pattern and place a trough out in the West/Southwest and a ridge smack dab in the middle of the nation.  The AO/NAO play a different role in late Spring/Summer/early Fall.

I always thought a -NAO would translate to mostly cooler than normal conditions for the CONUS. Guess it's different this time of the year. I'm really starting to wonder if teleconnections even matter anymore...

[Tom]

I always thought a -NAO would translate to mostly cooler than normal conditions for the CONUS. Guess it's different this time of the year. I'm really starting to wonder if teleconnections even matter anymore...

The AO/NAO in our region play a different role May-Sept when the jet is at it's weakest state when comparing it to Oct-Apr. Look below when you have a -AO/NAO in May:

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/AO/AOneg_05may.png

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/NAO/NAOneg_05may.png

[Tom]

With all this colder weather hanging around, Severe Wx season will continue to stay abnormally low yet again this season...at least places have been getting soaking rains.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_shot_2015_04_19_at_8_41_56_AM.png

[gosaints]

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

April has been anything but cold to the is point. Severe lacking but not because of cold.

[Tom]

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

April has been anything but cold to the is point. Severe lacking but not because of cold.

I meant over the next 2 weeks, not the past 2 weeks+...