April 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Might have some Hard Freezes near the Lakes this coming week.  Right on Climo schedule.

[Geos]

I haven't seen a lot of flowering trees blooming yet, except a few Magnolia and Crabapple. A freeze shouldn't damage a whole of plant life this week - locally. I know where it's been warmer there could be more damage. At least we haven't had a spring like 2012!

 

Clouded over now. Rain about 60-70 miles away - looks to be a schedule to arrive after 3pm.

[Geos]

Raining steadily this evening. A chilly 45°.

[NEJeremy]

ended up with 1.23" of rain here

[Hawkeye]

A whopping 2.10" of rain here, well above what I was expecting.  We got some heavier bands late yesterday and then the deformation zone pivoted on top of us overnight.  We couldn't buy any precip from March into early April, but 3.7 inches has fallen over the last two weeks.

[gosaints]

like a broken record the EURO is starting to modify

[CentralNebWeather]

Frost this morning in Central Nebraska.  I believe we ended here with around 2 inches of rain this weekend.  Some places had more,some had less.  Around North Platte was over 3 inches.  Looks like a very good chance again this Thursday night through Saturday. 

[Geos]

0.61" of rain here so far for this storm system. Patches of drizzle remain this morning. Low ceilings are making for a dark and gloomy day.

[james1976]

50s all week, and wind....frost possible mid-late week.

[Tom]

Pop goes the ridge around May 1st...Ensembles showing some good support.

[Maxim]

like a broken record the EURO is starting to modify

same with the GFS, which has had an overly cold bias this season...

[Geos]

0.63" of rain total with this system. Winds are gusting past 30 mph out there now. Today could have passed for a mid November day easily.

 

Might have some highs that fail to reach 50° this week.

[Hawkeye]

The op Euro has modified some in the near term, but then brings the highly amplified cold pattern right back for the end of the month.

[gosaints]

The op Euro has modified some in the near term, but then brings the highly amplified cold pattern right back for the end of the month.

Luckily none of the ensembles look as craptastic

[Geos]

I saw some scattered reports of snow mixing in with the rain to the northwest! Cold morning.

[Tom]

The Halloween part of the LRC is showing signs mid/late next week with a highly amplified pattern across the CONUS.  Huge storm potential in the East and a very chilly northerly flow across the Lakes.  

[james1976]

50mph wind gusts yesterday and today! Chilly, cloudy, windy. Looks more like fall outside.

[Tom]

Interesting find by the Coast Guard up near Traverse City, MI in Lake Michigan.  I never thought the waters up that way are so clear compared to down by Chicago from all the pollution.

 

http://www.discovery.com/dscovrd/nature/coast-guard-spots-century-old-shipwreck-in-lake-michigan/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=DiscoveryChannel

[Tom]

Last nights Euro Weeklies look amazing for the opening couple weeks of May with a broad ridge over the central CONUS.  Looking forward to seeing Chitown in full bloom, birds chirping, sun shining, and that fresh scent from the grass being cut.  Summer time weather is around the corner and beach/boating season not that far away.

[Geos]

50mph wind gusts yesterday and today! Chilly, cloudy, windy. Looks more like fall outside.

 

Only thing missing is all the loose leaves on the ground. 

 

Might be able to pull off a sub 50° high today. Heard reports of wet snowflakes and graupel mixing in with the rain in northern IL that last 3 hours.

 

Lake temps still firmly in the low 40s. With this wind today it's going to mixing any warmer waters near the shoreline away. 

[Hawkeye]

Last night's Euro brought the cold back into the central and eastern US big time at the end of the month.  On the new run the cold is nowhere to be found.  Instead, we'd be back in the 70s by the end of the month, just like what the GFS has been suggesting.

[Maxim]

amazing how inconsistent the models have become.

[CentralNebWeather]

Really enjoying the weather here in Central Nebraska.  Had good rains last weekend and more to come this weekend.  I planted grass 10 days ago and am start to see a little growth.  Even the last 2 mornings of readings in the low 30's shouldn't cause too many issues.  Chance of frost or freezing conditions tonight (valleys primarily) but farmers planting has been in full swing -but was stopped by the rain.  I believe my relatives might get back at corn planting on Wed. and Thursday before rain comes into the forecast Friday.  Planting of soybeans will start around May 1.  Father-in-law has 2500 acres of corn and 2000 acres of soybeans to get planted.

[Tom]

Really enjoying the weather here in Central Nebraska.  Had good rains last weekend and more to come this weekend.  I planted grass 10 days ago and am start to see a little growth.  Even the last 2 mornings of readings in the low 30's shouldn't cause too many issues.  Chance of frost or freezing conditions tonight (valleys primarily) but farmers planting has been in full swing -but was stopped by the rain.  I believe my relatives might get back at corn planting on Wed. and Thursday before rain comes into the forecast Friday.  Planting of soybeans will start around May 1.  Father-in-law has 2500 acres of corn and 2000 acres of soybeans to get planted.

Glad to see the wetter pattern evolve out in the Plains where the majority of crops are grown.  Climate models suggest this pattern to continue through the summer, similar to last year where there were record amounts of corn/soybean harvested.

 

Edit: Commodity prices ended up coming down which keeps $$$ in our pockets...and of course into the Farmer's!  

[Tom]

The potential Spring Freeze's this week coming right on schedule...

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/GIS_plots/frz_spring/frzmed_32_shd_Central.png

[CentralNebWeather]

My father-in-law mentioned these to me as he has been at the coffee shop and one of his friends follows the climate models.  It is great to see the mood of the area improve when we have had good rains and when more is predicted.  We are very fortunate here to be located over the Ogallala Aquifer, which is one of the largest underground reservoirs in the world.   Most of the crops are irrigated but it can get expensive with fuel, electricity, maintenance, insurance so when the pivots don't have to be used it is money in their pockets.

 

Here is a rainfall map from last week.  Amen for this.  I live in the county just southwest of Kearney NE.

 

[Geos]

High of 48° today here. Trace of rain. 

May pretty much always has at least one low at or below 32° around here. 

 

41° now with partially clearing. Going down well into the 30s I think.

A 3-4" across tree limb came down within inches of someone's car at work today. Would have left a mark if it had hit it for sure.

[Hawkeye]

Today was very windy again, and of course cool, but it was much better than yesterday.  Today brought more sun and a temp several degrees higher.

[Geos]

Had some light snow showers this morning. Low around 33°. Had to break out the lighter winter coat today.

[Tom]

Late April Snow in N IL...Back to back years where it snowed early and very late in a season.

 

[Maxim]

Non-accumulating snow in April really isn't that uncommon in N. IL (even April 2010 had a snow event). Once you get into May, the chances of any kind of snow go way down.

[Tom]

Non-accumulating snow in April really isn't that uncommon in N. IL (even April 2010 had a snow event). Once you get into May, the chances of any kind of snow go way down.

It's not, and the point was that it snowed in early May last year and its snowing very late again in late April.  That alone is rare to see and doesn't happen often in consecutive years.  The Lakes have the 3rd latest Ice Coverage also.

[Tom]

Nasty Hump Day in N IL & Lakes region...instability rain/snow showers developing and I hear its pretty darn windy.  I think low 40's may be the max if the cloud deck prevails.  Not the last crappy day of the week.  If forecasts hold, Saturday could be the last day of 40's/rain for a while in the Midwest/Lower Lakes.

[Money]

zzzz

[Tom]

zzzz

Good thing is, Ensembles still showing the ridge building in from the west around the 1st of May.  Looks to lock in for a while.

[Maxim]

downright awful day.

[Tom]

This should put a smile on your face....

[Tom]

Meantime, Freeze Warnings hoisted for a large portion of the Midwest region...

 

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
325 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
230430-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FZ.W.0001.150423T0700Z-150423T1300Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...
WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...
FOWLER
325 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM CDT /3 AM EDT/ TO 8 AM CDT
/9 AM EDT/ THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM CDT /3 AM EDT/ TO 8 AM CDT
/9 AM EDT/ THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND AROUND 30
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED...WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[Maxim]

How is MDW averaging 3.2° warmer than ORD for the month? That's a bit screwy... 

[Geos]

Definitely saw the snow come down today. High of 43°, which is actually only -15° from normal.

 

Down to 35° already. Probably heading towards the dewpoint of 27° - currently.