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4/1 - 4/12 Severe Weather Threat


Tom

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You're implying that today will be a dud, when everything is going as planned. You do realize the main event wasn't supposed to start in the morning, correct?

Not true Last couple day we we're supposed to get storm's notta one storm. Now as far as today goes likely get a few storm's especially if we can get sun breaks this afternoon
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   150 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

 

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

 

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

     NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS

     FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA

     FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

     LAKE MICHIGAN

 

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL

     1100 PM CDT.

 

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

     A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

       TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5

       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

 

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF

   MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR ILLINOIS.

   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

 

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

 

 

   DISCUSSION...TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED WITH

   INITIAL STORMS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS DEVELOPING E/NE AND ADDITIONAL

   STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH AREAS WILL HAVE STRONG DEEP-LAYER

   SHEAR SUPPORTING RISKS FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

   WINDS.
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Atmosphere is more stable up in WI. Storms seems to be firing right along the warm front. That cell in Winnebago County is the one to watch in N IL.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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After a near complete bust of a week, a last minute skinny line of storms trained over my side of Cedar Rapids and dropped three rounds of hail.  Most of it was pea size, but one round had a few pieces up to 0.50" diameter and one round had 0.75" diameter pieces.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The line that's back along the cold front is the best bet to get severe weather this far north. Winds turned back out of the NE here and is killing activity as it approaches the lake. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The line that's back along the cold front is the best bet to get severe weather this far north. Winds turned back out of the NE here and is killing activity as it approaches the lake. 

Strange. Did the warm front drift a bit south? That really makes no sense...

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Strange. Did the warm front drift a bit south? That really makes no sense...

 

T-storm outflow did that. Fog has overspread the area again. Too much convection today up this way to allow for any destabilization.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Serious situation near Rochelle ---

 

This is confirmed TOG.

 

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
643 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ILC103-141-100000-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150410T0000Z/
OGLE IL-LEE IL-
643 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OGLE AND NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 643 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHTON...OR 9
MILES WEST OF ROCHELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROCHELLE AND HILLCREST AROUND 700 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
STEWARD.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 92 AND 102.
I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 81.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tornado warning now out up by Harvard, IL.

 

Lake breeze/outflow boundary cuts across eastern McHenry county into southern Lake County currently. That might be the only thing that stops this supercell. Watch out if winds turn back southerly ahead of it. - Especially if your in northern Kane and southern McHenry County.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tornado warning now out up by Harvard, IL.

 

Lake breeze/outflow boundary cuts across eastern McHenry county into southern Lake County currently. That might be the only thing that stops this supercell. Watch out if winds turn back southerly ahead of it. - Especially if your in northern Kane and southern McHenry County.

The cell itself is above that outflow boundary, I "think".

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If it stays intact up to the Northwest tollway, it will be getting into a more populated area...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Wow, look at this video!
Crazy.
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=840970689315679&permPage=1

Still holding onto the cooler air up this way.

Marengo and possibly just south of Woodstock should really watch out now.


Steve KahnA MINUTE AGO

875]
Large and dangerous tornado just east of Belvidere moving northeast at 40 at 7:33pm
TAKE COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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TOG still northwest of Marengo heading towards Woodstock!

 

Tornado Warning McHenry County until 8:30 pm
Confirmed tornado northwest of Marengo moving northeast at 45 mph.
 
TAKE COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Heading north of Woodstock. Wonder Lake and northeastern McHenry County in line.

 

Beyond that this storm will be moving into much cooler air. 

 

Tornado near Wonder Lake and Greenwood moving northeast at 40 mph.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Storm rolled in with C-G lightning and winds gusted up near 40mph. Cut the power for a minutes and now it's pouring down hail here.


Not much bigger than pea sized though.


 


Impressive photos coming in.


 


http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/live-blog-for-this-afternoons-severe-weather


Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It was slow in the afternoon, but it sure ramped up quickly.

 

Getting trained now by heavy downpours. Might break the 3" mark today.

 

Clearing out now...

 

Fairdale or what's left of it. 1 fatality confirmed.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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