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4/1 - 4/12 Severe Weather Threat

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#51
FV-Mike

Posted 09 April 2015 - 11:35 AM

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Heavy rain, lots of lighting with the storm moving through DeKalb county at the moment



#52
Seahawkfan

Posted 09 April 2015 - 12:00 PM

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Line of storm's from south/central iowa stretching central Missouri heading east.

#53
Seahawkfan

Posted 09 April 2015 - 12:03 PM

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We have warmed up to 76 with the on off sunbreaks.

#54
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 01:39 PM

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Atmosphere is more stable up in WI. Storms seems to be firing right along the warm front. That cell in Winnebago County is the one to watch in N IL.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#55
Hawkeye

Posted 09 April 2015 - 02:05 PM

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After a near complete bust of a week, a last minute skinny line of storms trained over my side of Cedar Rapids and dropped three rounds of hail.  Most of it was pea size, but one round had a few pieces up to 0.50" diameter and one round had 0.75" diameter pieces.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#56
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 02:12 PM

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The line that's back along the cold front is the best bet to get severe weather this far north. Winds turned back out of the NE here and is killing activity as it approaches the lake. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#57
Illinois_WX

Posted 09 April 2015 - 02:27 PM

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Isn't there someone from Clinton IL/IA on here?? looks like that tornado warned storm is headed directly towards that area as we speak.

'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#58
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 02:38 PM

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The line that's back along the cold front is the best bet to get severe weather this far north. Winds turned back out of the NE here and is killing activity as it approaches the lake. 

Strange. Did the warm front drift a bit south? That really makes no sense...



#59
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 03:44 PM

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Strange. Did the warm front drift a bit south? That really makes no sense...

 

T-storm outflow did that. Fog has overspread the area again. Too much convection today up this way to allow for any destabilization.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#60
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 03:46 PM

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Serious situation near Rochelle ---

 

This is confirmed TOG.

 

c4184e4402cac29c509943ceaaacbb78.jpg

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
643 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ILC103-141-100000-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150410T0000Z/
OGLE IL-LEE IL-
643 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OGLE AND NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 643 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHTON...OR 9
MILES WEST OF ROCHELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROCHELLE AND HILLCREST AROUND 700 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
STEWARD.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 92 AND 102.
I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 81.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

 

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#61
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 03:55 PM

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That Rochelle cell is insane.



#62
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 03:58 PM

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Jesus...

 

8DSQshl.gif

SwaxNfX.gif



#63
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:04 PM

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b4e2c36ec5a6219fa3c31ff580c358e0.png



#64
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:04 PM

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Here's a pic of that thing, someone else took it earlier.

 

e060e237d3dab94fcecec9fe85fa9417.png



#65
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:09 PM

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Live on the Weather Channel right now. 

This thing is a monster!


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#66
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:10 PM

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Probably close to a mile wide by now. I'm pretty sure the velocity has maxed out on this thing too.



#67
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:13 PM

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Tornado warning now out up by Harvard, IL.

 

Lake breeze/outflow boundary cuts across eastern McHenry county into southern Lake County currently. That might be the only thing that stops this supercell. Watch out if winds turn back southerly ahead of it. - Especially if your in northern Kane and southern McHenry County.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#68
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:19 PM

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Tornado warning now out up by Harvard, IL.

 

Lake breeze/outflow boundary cuts across eastern McHenry county into southern Lake County currently. That might be the only thing that stops this supercell. Watch out if winds turn back southerly ahead of it. - Especially if your in northern Kane and southern McHenry County.

The cell itself is above that outflow boundary, I "think".



#69
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:20 PM

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Awful amount of damage already being reported from the tornado.



#70
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:21 PM

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If it stays intact up to the Northwest tollway, it will be getting into a more populated area...


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#71
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:27 PM

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Wow, look at this video!
Crazy.
https://www.facebook...5679&permPage=1

Still holding onto the cooler air up this way.

Marengo and possibly just south of Woodstock should really watch out now.


Steve KahnA MINUTE AGO

875]
Large and dangerous tornado just east of Belvidere moving northeast at 40 at 7:33pm
TAKE COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM

 

24adb89048c378c2d0f3910adee4de78.jpg


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#72
Maxim

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:46 PM

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That had to be an EF4 at least. Some homes were wiped clean off their foundation.



#73
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:46 PM

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TOG still northwest of Marengo heading towards Woodstock!

 

Tornado Warning McHenry County until 8:30 pm
Confirmed tornado northwest of Marengo moving northeast at 45 mph.
 
TAKE COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#74
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 04:56 PM

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Heading north of Woodstock. Wonder Lake and northeastern McHenry County in line.

 

Beyond that this storm will be moving into much cooler air. 

 

Tornado near Wonder Lake and Greenwood moving northeast at 40 mph.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#75
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 05:15 PM

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Crystal Lake area posters better watch this cell.

 

VkJgDFb.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#76
james1976

Posted 09 April 2015 - 05:18 PM

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Crazy video. That circulation is impressive.



#77
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 05:24 PM

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Another crazy video

 

https://youtu.be/kiiBEpabzc8

 

Also

 

https://www.facebook...6692&permPage=1


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#78
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 05:41 PM

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Storm rolled in with C-G lightning and winds gusted up near 40mph. Cut the power for a minutes and now it's pouring down hail here.

Not much bigger than pea sized though.

 

Impressive photos coming in.

 

http://chicagoweathe...-severe-weather


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#79
Money

Posted 09 April 2015 - 05:53 PM

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So, I'm guessing the person who said this was a bust and people were just going to get a few showers was a little bit off..



#80
Geos

Posted 09 April 2015 - 06:05 PM

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It was slow in the afternoon, but it sure ramped up quickly.

 

Getting trained now by heavy downpours. Might break the 3" mark today.

 

Clearing out now...

 

Fairdale or what's left of it. 1 fatality confirmed.

 

IMG_2373.jpg


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#81
Illinois_WX

Posted 09 April 2015 - 08:24 PM

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There's going to be more fatalities i think. Watched an interview of a guy helping out around the town, and im afraid he hinted that there were more. Just heartbreaking. It's eerie watching the tornado live, and knowing that its taking lives in the process. Horrible. It's so weird seeing this happen in Northern Illinois, let alone in April. That tornado will probably be an F4 just based on what I've seen in photos. Unreal outbreak, surprised they didn't have atleast a Moderate risk today, screw this enhanced stuff.

'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#82
Maxim

Posted 10 April 2015 - 03:51 AM

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There's going to be more fatalities i think. Watched an interview of a guy helping out around the town, and im afraid he hinted that there were more. Just heartbreaking. It's eerie watching the tornado live, and knowing that its taking lives in the process. Horrible. It's so weird seeing this happen in Northern Illinois, let alone in April. That tornado will probably be an F4 just based on what I've seen in photos. Unreal outbreak, surprised they didn't have atleast a Moderate risk today, screw this enhanced stuff.

Yeah, they should have gone with a moderate risk. They always seem to be too conservative it seems.

If this tornado had formed just a bit farther east, I'm sure it would have been much more deadly. It went over mostly unpopulated areas. Nonetheless, pretty tragic.

#83
Geos

Posted 10 April 2015 - 06:59 AM

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Noticed some minor damage and of course some localized flooding this morning. Few roads flooded over just west of here. Saw a couple small trees snapped off at ground level and some limbs up to 4" broke off. Also saw a few light poles and a flag pole bent over as well in Kenosha. There was probably some wind gusts up near 60 mph in the area last night.

 

A little bit west and it probably would have hit the southeast Rockford metro and if it would have formed closer to DeKalb is would have gone into the more populated Kane County. It formed in the "best" place with regards to lowest population.

 

The storm probably would have been sustained longer further south and east where the inflow would not have been interrupted by the east winds off the lake last night.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#84
NEJeremy

Posted 10 April 2015 - 10:12 AM

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There's going to be more fatalities i think. Watched an interview of a guy helping out around the town, and im afraid he hinted that there were more. Just heartbreaking. It's eerie watching the tornado live, and knowing that its taking lives in the process. Horrible. It's so weird seeing this happen in Northern Illinois, let alone in April. That tornado will probably be an F4 just based on what I've seen in photos. Unreal outbreak, surprised they didn't have atleast a Moderate risk today, screw this enhanced stuff.

If we were still on the old scale, this would have been a slight risk with a 30% probs. Slight risks before were 15-30% and now it's 15% for slight and 30% for enhanced. Moderate risk is still 45% probs and I don't think it should have been a moderate risk yesterday. There weren't enough tornado reports to make it a moderate risk even if one of the tornadoes were stronger. Most of the reports from yesterday are duplicate reports from the same tornado. Also the tornado watch boxes for that area outlined the risk for a couple of intense tornadoes. For the most part yesterday when you looked at the national map, there were never more than a handful of warnings going on at one time. This was a higer end slight risk, but not a moderate risk to me IMO.



#85
Tom

Posted 10 April 2015 - 05:59 PM

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EF-4 may be the final rating following final review tomorrow...

 

 

The preliminary rating of the tornado that struck Fairdale yesterday is an EF-4. Only 2 percent of all tornadoes reach this strength.

NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/09/15 TORNADO EVENT UPDATE...
...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TORNADO PRELIMINARY RATED AN EF-4...

NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE CONDUCTED A GROUND SURVEY COVERING THE MOST
HEAVILY DAMAGED LOCATIONS. BASED ON EARLY FINDINGS THE TORNADO THAT
TRACKED FROM NEAR ROCHELLE TO NEAR BELVIDERE...AND IMPACTED THE
COMMUNITY OF FAIRDALE...APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A SINGLE LONG TRACK
TORNADO. PRELIMINARY SURVEY ASSESSMENT INDICATES THIS TORNADO
WAS AN EF-4. AN AERIAL SURVEY WILL BE CONDUCTED
TOMORROW...WEATHER PERMITTING...TO CONFIRM A FINAL RATING.

AT LEAST ONE SATELLITE TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGER TORNADO
WAS FOUND THUS FAR AND THERE MAY HAVE BEEN OTHERS. AN AERIAL
SURVEY WILL HELP US ASCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WERE ANY ADDITIONAL
TORNADOES ON THIS DAY.

.TORNADO...

RATING: EF-4 (PRELIMINARY)
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 180-200 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: TBD
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 0.5 MILE (PRELIMINARY)
FATALITIES: 2
INJURIES: 22

START DATE:APRIL 09 2015
START TIME:TBD
START LOCATION:TBD

END DATE:APRIL 09 2015
END TIME:TBD
END LOCATION:TBD



#86
Geos

Posted 11 April 2015 - 02:34 PM

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Map of the tornado tracks.

 

7342_900816173308751_1198349153077312357


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#87
Maxim

Posted 11 April 2015 - 03:39 PM

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If we were still on the old scale, this would have been a slight risk with a 30% probs. Slight risks before were 15-30% and now it's 15% for slight and 30% for enhanced. Moderate risk is still 45% probs and I don't think it should have been a moderate risk yesterday. There weren't enough tornado reports to make it a moderate risk even if one of the tornadoes were stronger. Most of the reports from yesterday are duplicate reports from the same tornado. Also the tornado watch boxes for that area outlined the risk for a couple of intense tornadoes. For the most part yesterday when you looked at the national map, there were never more than a handful of warnings going on at one time. This was a higer end slight risk, but not a moderate risk to me IMO.

Probs were at 45% at one point. It definitely would have been a moderate risk with the old scale.



#88
NEJeremy

Posted 13 April 2015 - 08:41 AM

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Probs were at 45% at one point. It definitely would have been a moderate risk with the old scale.

They were never at 45% on day one. There was one outlook on day 2 that had a huge area of 45% that was lowered for day one. There were basically 2 tornadic cells that day that produced anything other than brief spinups. There were a lot of storm reports that day but that's due to such a large area that had reports and there weren't a lot of high end reports either. IMO a slight risk was justified.

http://www.spc.noaa....50409_2000.html