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East Coast and Gulf Coast Weather Observations for 2015

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#501
Phil

Posted 17 January 2016 - 08:13 PM

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The 00z GFS is rape. Height of the storm delivers 6-8"+ over 3hrs with 50-70mph gusts depicted, total accumulations approaching 40" over central MD.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#502
hlcater

Posted 17 January 2016 - 08:54 PM

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lol. thats one way to put it. I dont even live on the east cost but will enjoy watching this one pan out regardless :D


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2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn


#503
Phil

Posted 17 January 2016 - 09:15 PM

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Looks like another round of snow squalls incoming with the Arctic front. Winds will probably surpass 40mph in a few hours.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#504
iFred

Posted 17 January 2016 - 09:18 PM

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The 00 runs are encouraging. It's nice to see that the Philadelphia area is now being modeled with more snow. The dynamics look to favor north and west of the low, with 36-48 hours of steady snowfall. Weenie hype is max.

#505
Phil

Posted 17 January 2016 - 09:30 PM

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The 00 runs are encouraging. It's nice to see that the Philadelphia area is now being modeled with more snow. The dynamics look to favor north and west of the low, with 36-48 hours of steady snowfall. Weenie hype is max.


I'm more worried about suppression than something overamped and NW.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#506
Phil

Posted 18 January 2016 - 06:02 AM

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Woke up to a nippy 16/2 this morning. Wind was howling last night, gusts around 45mph regionwide with a few snow squalls in the area.
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Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#507
iFred

Posted 19 January 2016 - 11:05 AM

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Well the Euro giveth and taketh away. This storm is probably a non event north of BWI.

 

The weenie express has broken down, as have my dreams.



#508
Phil

Posted 19 January 2016 - 11:14 AM

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Might be a wobble, but I've seen enough last minute jumps with these things over the years to expect the unexpected.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#509
iFred

Posted 19 January 2016 - 01:09 PM

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Might be a wobble, but I've seen enough last minute jumps with these things over the years to expect the unexpected.


I have a little hope. From what I am reading, there is almost a bad run for two from the GFS or Euro in the 5-3 day range, typically after new data is ingested, such as the low moving ashore in Oregon. Add the Euro southerly bias, I think there is a good chance that we revert to the previous forecasts or the whole thing moves north.

#510
ShawniganLake

Posted 19 January 2016 - 01:16 PM

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I have a little hope. From what I am reading, there is almost a bad run for two from the GFS or Euro in the 5-3 day range, typically after new data is ingested, such as the low moving ashore in Oregon. Add the Euro southerly bias, I think there is a good chance that we revert to the previous forecasts or the whole thing moves north.

Seems like the Canadian has a pretty nice placement of the low for you guys. 



#511
iFred

Posted 19 January 2016 - 02:24 PM

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Seems like the Canadian has a pretty nice placement of the low for you guys.


I've always loved Canada.

#512
ShawniganLake

Posted 19 January 2016 - 02:28 PM

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I've always loved Canada.

18Z has 30-40" just south of DC.  I wonder if things typically trend north over there, much like they do in the PNW. 



#513
iFred

Posted 19 January 2016 - 05:16 PM

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18Z has 30-40" just south of DC.  I wonder if things typically trend north over there, much like they do in the PNW.


That's what some have been saying. A couple of Mets have also pointed out how the Euro has been underplaying available energy and toning down lows. We will see in 36 hours as by that time we should know if the low is going to be weak and zonal, or gather strength and bowl up the coast.

#514
Geos

Posted 21 January 2016 - 11:26 AM

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Moved some of the more recent storm posts to the actual storm thread. I figure the handful of members that live out East will be posting quite a bit more as this historic blizzard gets underway.


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 23.62", 9/23

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#515
Geos

Posted 23 January 2016 - 01:17 PM

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GGEM and UKMET showing a smaller snowstorm going up the east coast next Thursday!

 

pratetypema.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 23.62", 9/23

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#516
Phil

Posted 23 January 2016 - 08:21 PM

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I may have brought this up previously. Since 1950, every moderate, strong, and super Niño that featured a warmer than average November in this region was followed by a snowier than average winter. It's not a small sample size, either.

Hopefully this continues to hold true, haha.


It held true! ;)
  • iFred likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#517
iFred

Posted 23 January 2016 - 08:55 PM

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It held true! ;)

 

This would be worthy of a signature.

 

From what I can gather, there is rarely ever one big storm a season, but usually two or three significant storms.



#518
Phil

Posted 23 January 2016 - 08:59 PM

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This would be worthy of a signature.

From what I can gather, there is rarely ever one big storm a season, but usually two or three significant storms.


Yeah, we've never had a blockbuster blizzard stand alone in a winter. I suspect mid and/or late February will offer tremendous potential, with next weekend also offering an opportunity for additional snowfall.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#519
weatherfan2012

Posted 23 January 2016 - 09:01 PM

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No matter what happens in febuary into march storm wise it will be a bonus from here on out as this storm has all ready made this winter historical in a snow since but something tells me we may not be done yet as another periold of big blocking in the Ao and nao is likey mid febuary into first half of march.so another periold of great potential in the mid febuary through the early March time frame is a good bet.also some possibilities of some sort of storm next fir day saterday as you stated phil.

#520
weatherfan2012

Posted 25 January 2016 - 04:28 PM

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The firday system has treaded further east close call but looks like a near miss for us early febuary looks like a reload periold with a warm first few days of febuary but the cold pattern should come back east again after febuary 4 or 5th as phil said mid to late febuary into early Marchs likely offers big potential once again.

#521
Black Hole

Posted 25 January 2016 - 08:20 PM

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It was great tracking this thing. What a storm :)


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Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#522
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 January 2016 - 06:10 PM

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It got quite warm today many locations in the mid 50s a few days down turn to normal temperatures followed by the sort warm shot periold that phil was talking about end of January first few days of febuary.pattern those looks to be getting very interesting with lots of potential again mid febuary into early Marchs so as stated before we aren't done by a long shot yet.but in the mean time going to enjoy the week or two of the break.

#523
Phil

Posted 28 January 2016 - 01:39 PM

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Have to say, even with the snow, this has been one of the warmest winters I can recall. Upon further investigation, looks like it's one of the warmest on record as of today, and has a shot to finish in the top-10.

Actually the warmest on record through today in Philadelphia, New York, and Boston.

Attached File  image.jpeg   220.91KB   0 downloads
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#524
Phil

Posted 28 January 2016 - 01:55 PM

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This winter has such a different feel than 2013-14 and 2014-15. It almost feels like a prolonged autumn without those extended stretches of single digit lows persistent winds, and frequent snowfall.

I remember the Arctic attacks like it was yesterday. That squall/arctic cyclone on February 14th is a milestone for me. It dropped 4" in 30 minutes over several areas, and was followed by 70mph gusts and a temperature plunge into the zero degree range, leading to wind chills approaching -40 degrees. Watching the thermometer fall below zero several times, in two consecutive Marches, was also amazing from a numbers perspective.

This winter has just been relatively tame by comparison, so far at least..
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#525
weatherfan2012

Posted 28 January 2016 - 01:57 PM

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This may just be the calm before the storm temperature wise in a few years.it will be interesting to see the trends after the 2016-2017 winter or when we start to desend into our low solar min in a few years.

#526
Phil

Posted 28 January 2016 - 02:08 PM

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I think 2016-17 is another blowtorch, but ironically it may turn out colder overall than this winter. However, 2017-18 and/or 2018-19 should be quite cold/snowy.

I'm watching 2018-19 very closely.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#527
weatherfan2012

Posted 28 January 2016 - 02:21 PM

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Agreed and of course the 2020s and 2030s and beowed is largely dependent on what happens with solar cycles 25 and 26.

#528
Phil

Posted 01 February 2016 - 09:34 AM

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Drip drip drip..snowpack (or should I say icepack) down to 11-13" in the shade, 4-7" in the sun. Officially the warmest December/January combo on record in my area. :(
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#529
weatherfan2012

Posted 01 February 2016 - 01:40 PM

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It's been sort of 83 like with the warm over all temperatures but got a week or so of decent cold and the massive snow storm.it will be interesting to see how things play out after this warm shot this week.and how the rest of febuary plays out still very much think winter has some tricks up it sleeve.

#530
iFred

Posted 02 February 2016 - 01:53 PM

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Next week is looking interesting. Some solutions latching onto a Mon-Tues event.

#531
Phil

Posted 02 February 2016 - 07:11 PM

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Too much northern-stream dominance for my liking right now. Unless that changes, we're looking at typical cold/dry crap for awhile, similar to the first half of February 2015.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#532
weatherfan2012

Posted 02 February 2016 - 09:00 PM

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Yeah this storm next week maybe more northern stream which would benefit new england more so.it would be surprising if blizzard of 2016 was our only event as most winters that have a block buster storm tends to see another event or two.those to be honest this has been a very unusual winter in how it been so warm yet we scored on that big event.It will be interesting to see how the febuary 15-march 4 period trinspires.

#533
Phil

Posted 04 February 2016 - 05:22 PM

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Interesting anafrontal system late tonight/tomorrow morning. These things tend to either boom or bust, so it'll be interesting to watch unfold. Could be a surprise 1-3" for eastern areas during the morning commute.

Next week has high potential, but Miller-Bs are fickle and difficult to pin down. Someone always gets screwed, while someone close to the screw zone hits the jackpot.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#534
Andie

Posted 04 February 2016 - 06:25 PM

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Phil, while you're waiting for the verdict on that. How 'bout replying to that pm? :)

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#535
weatherfan2012

Posted 04 February 2016 - 07:40 PM

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We likey won't know next week's out come until this weekend at the earliest as miller B systems can be complicated animals.it also depends how far south or north it phases or forums.

#536
Phil

Posted 04 February 2016 - 07:54 PM

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Phil, while you're waiting for the verdict on that. How 'bout replying to that pm? :)


Sorry, didn't see your PM.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#537
Phil

Posted 04 February 2016 - 07:55 PM

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Northerly breeze picking up, radar returns developing to the S/SE, expanding N/NW. Going to be an interesting night.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#538
Phil

Posted 05 February 2016 - 06:47 AM

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Been snowing lightly for almost 9hrs with nothing to show for it so far. Currently 35/28 with a breeze from the NW.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#539
weatherfan2012

Posted 05 February 2016 - 01:39 PM

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The data is really going full on winter madness doing the periold of mid febuary through early march exactly what phil was predicting for a while now that the febuary 15 early March time frame could be the true high light of this winter.and data is showing this quite strongly.

#540
iFred

Posted 05 February 2016 - 01:58 PM

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The data is really going full on winter madness doing the periold of mid febuary through early march exactly what phil was predicting for a while now that the febuary 15 early March time frame could be the true high light of this winter.and data is showing this quite strongly.


Weird to think that we could end the season with another blockbuster event.

#541
Phil

Posted 05 February 2016 - 04:11 PM

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Weird to think that we could end the season with another blockbuster event.


The modeled mid/late February pattern is an absolute pants tent. I'm fully expecting another snowstorm or two.
  • iFred likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#542
weatherfan2012

Posted 06 February 2016 - 10:34 AM

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Models are having lot's of trouble not only with this week's systems but very much back and forth on mid febuary through early March.will be interesting to see how this plays out the next few weeks.

#543
iFred

Posted 07 February 2016 - 01:27 AM

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Amazing how the models can go from a something amazing to a whiff and a dusting in one run, and do so in sync with the rest of the models. Phil is probably right about the mid-late Feburary show.
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#544
Phil

Posted 07 February 2016 - 12:19 PM

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Amazing how the models can go from a something amazing to a whiff and a dusting in one run, and do so in sync with the rest of the models. Phil is probably right about the mid-late Feburary show.


Miller-Bs are heartbreakers 90% of the time unless you live in New England, even if the modeling suggests otherwise. I'm not surprised at all. The DC/Philadelphia areas do much better under the Miller-A storm evolution.

That said, in the rare cases where Miller-Bs do work out, they're incredible. A good example of this is February 9-10, 2010. Areas in North/Central MD ended up with over 2 feet of snow in 10 hours with winds measured close to 70mph under convective snowbands. I've never experienced a storm quite like that one in my life..a true Midwest style blizzard with visibility under 100ft for the duration of the storm.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#545
weatherfan2012

Posted 07 February 2016 - 02:35 PM

weatherfan2012

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Yes march 2001 was another such classic case of a miller B screw over where days leading on to it the data was big for a big snow event only til hours before when models got a clue that it was going to be a classic miller B new england blast hit screw over south of pa.2000-2001 the winter of the miller B storms.

#546
Phil

Posted 07 February 2016 - 11:19 PM

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Good lord the 00z ECMWF is an icebox. Gets MD/PA down into the -10s with gusty breezes, haha.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#547
iFred

Posted 08 February 2016 - 03:19 AM

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It's going to be the coldest I've ever been. -2f Saturday night.

#548
Phil

Posted 08 February 2016 - 10:47 AM

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About 4" already at Snowshoe, WV: http://www.snowshoem...e-village.aspx#
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#549
Phil

Posted 08 February 2016 - 03:48 PM

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Lightning strikes occurring over the mountains.
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Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#550
iFred

Posted 08 February 2016 - 05:20 PM

iFred

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Lightning strikes occurring over the mountains.


Lift looks amazing tomorrow.