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May Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we get ready to flip the calendar into May, will the above normal regime continue into this month?  Certainly looks like the weather pattern will continue into May.  The LRC says a -EPO pattern should develop sometime this month and the Euro Weeklies were showing this as well.  However, when you get later into the year the reaction is different but the same,  According to the LRC, it should cycle through.  Here is what a -EPO suggests this month:

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/EPOnew/EPOnew_neg_05may.png

 

 

I gotta say, if this wet pattern holds on, this summer may be a carbon copy of what last year's summer looked like and the JMA/JAMSTEC  have been hinting at this for a few months now.

 

 

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Growing season should be getting a real boost with warmer temps and widespread rainfall across the central CONUS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

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Nice to see that wet signal backing up into areas west of the subforum. Late season snows in the mountains are really beneficial going into summer.

 

Forecasted 60s here Friday and Saturday and 70s on Sunday - will see how that works out with the increased chance of rain.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS is very wet for all next week and following weekend.

 

It goes to show you our dry winters really haven't meant jack when it comes to precip here in the spring and summer. A dry winter might leave an area an inch or two below normal in moisture, a dry spring and summer will quickly add up to 5-10" of below normal moisture.

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Accuweather with their Summer Forecast...not sure if I buy into the hot/dry pattern in KS/NE, the northern Plains have a better chance, but not where the wet pattern has already started.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_04291708_summer-2015-highlights.jpg

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Little cool today, but still pretty nice out. About 57° currently.

 

Chilly morning with patchy frost early today.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The weather is great and should remain that way indefinitely.

 

This happened two years ago today

 

CEAfPCtVAAAcw5J.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I remember that storm very well. The places that got accumulating snow were in the 80s just a couple days prior to the storm, and I believe there was accumulating snow as far south as Arkansas. Just an incredibly rare event, probably won't happen again in our lifetime. 

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Nice to see Lake Michigan continue to fill up with water and raise the levels even higher than last year.  I recall a few years ago, boat launches where so high up you had to climb up onto them when you launched your boat at Diversey Harbor.

 

 

CD8yQ1zVEAAVzlL.jpg

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Reach 75° today. Cooled off nicely this evening due to the dry atmosphere. Leaves are finally pushing out on the trees - and at full force!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yuck! 10 out of the next forecast periods(day/night) have thunderstorms likely in my grid forecast. Let's see how much rain we'll get this week. All these storms are probably going to keep the severe weather threat down as the atmosphere is going to get worked over pretty much daily.

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A surprise rainfall this morning, caused by a weak vort moving over the area, is ruining my big garden-planting day.  :(

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow, marginal risk today, only to get 3 severe thunderstorm warnings, as well as a tornado warning in my county. Unreal. Picked up about 1.5" rain, and got some solid hail. Reports of baseball sized hail in south lincoln today. Crazy how this unfolded!

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It's definitely a much-improved pattern for the plains states.

 

I got some modest rainfall(0.30") overnight from a weakening line of storms.  The better storms this evening may track south of my area, but I should get some more solid rainfall.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Kind of surprised there was never a Severe t-storm watch issued either. Maybe not for Nebraska as for the most part the storms were rather "pulsey", but further northeast of us, there was a pretty good line of storms that formed. The SPC said they would watch that area for a possible watch but never issued one. Wonder what they wanted to see before they would have?!

Wow, marginal risk today, only to get 3 severe thunderstorm warnings, as well as a tornado warning in my county. Unreal. Picked up about 1.5" rain, and got some solid hail. Reports of baseball sized hail in south lincoln today. Crazy how this unfolded!

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Line of strong storm last night faded by the time they got this far east. 0.30" of rain from late yesterday afternoon though. 

Warmest day of the year yesterday at 77°.\

 

In the upper 60s now, but a wind just started onshore.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Using the East Asian Theory, there is a Typhoon expected to hit the Philipines over the weekend.  Expect a Eastern Ridge to pop 6-10 days thereafter.

 

12z Euro Ensembles agree...Day 10-15 Mean...

 

 

 

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I pickedup another 0.96" of rain overnight.  Just to the south, closer to Iowa City, a band of 3+ inches fell.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had my first taste of Thunderstorms here in AZ Sunday night/Monday.  Reminds me of the Monsoon season that gets going here in late July.  We had a little over 1.0" of rain that produced flash flooding, intense lightning displays and powerful winds that kicked up a wall of dust.  I was sitting outside on the balcony and I could see the wall of dust moving towards me and then....boom!  

 

Where I am located, I have unrestricted views and could see for miles in either direction.  The beauty of nature continues to amaze me when you can see a cumulonimbus cloud in the distance blow up into a huge storm and the anvil cloud tops reaching high up into the jet stream.  Spending what should be my last week here and heading back home soon.  Not really looking forward to the mosquitoes and bugs!

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Been hanging in the 40s most of the day here. Up to 0.83" of rain for the week so far. 0.53" today - mainly before 12pm.

 

@NE Jeremy - and it someone did get 9" of rain in California it will cause all kinds of other problems. Would be a lot of runoff with the dry bare ground - unless it was over several weeks.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Been hanging in the 40s most of the day here. Up to 0.83" of rain for the week so far. 0.53" today - mainly before 12pm.

 

@NE Jeremy - and it someone did get 9" of rain in California it will cause all kinds of other problems. Would be a lot of runoff with the dry bare ground - unless it was over several weeks.

Yeah i know :)  The map that Tom showed that had 9" of rain was over a 32 day period to June, so hopefully most of that would sink into the ground or go into the lakes and reservoirs out there in California.

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