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May Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I am loving this weather, might not later when mosquitoes are prevalent, as we continue to get rain in Central Nebraska.  Started thundering about 4 AM and has rained off and on through 8:30 AM with some heavier rains.  Radar estimates are between 1/2 and 1 inch with more just south of us in North Central Kansas.  Been a long time in this part of the state that we have standing water everywhere.  This is not counting what might be coming in terms of severe weather this weekend, then more chances of rain next week and cooler.  

 

Have a great weekend, I know many are celebrating graduations and other end of the school year activities.  Our school graduates on Sunday and the rest of the students are out Tuesday at 11:30 AM.

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Hastings NWS not messing around with potential for severe weather this weekend.  Could get interesting around here.

 

FileL (2).png

 

The main weather story these next few days within the local area of South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas will be the potential for severe thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Although thunderstorms have already developed across parts of the area this morning, these are not expected to carry much threat of being severe. As for later this afternoon and evening, the Storm Prediction Center has indicated a Slight Risk of severe storms for most of the local area, although somewhat higher chances for severe weather is expected to focus off to the northwest over the Nebraska Sandhills region. Nonetheless, any given location within South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas could see at least isolated severe storm development through this evening, with the main hazards being hail up to around the size of golf balls, wind gusts up to around 70 MPH, and perhaps a few tornadoes. While most of the local area is expected to see a lull in thunderstorm activity through most of the later evening and overnight hours, another round of storms could move in from the south and west late tonight into Saturday morning. As for other elements of the weather forecast today, it will be rather breezy from the south-southeast, with sustained speeds increasing to 20 to 25 MPH with higher gusts. High temperatures today are expected to be the warmest most areas will see for several days, with mainly upper 70s to low 80s. Turning to Saturday, although parts of the day could feature a lull in thunderstorm chances, the overall risk for severe thunderstorms within the local area during the afternoon and evening actually appears to be a bit higher than it is today, and the Storm Prediction Center has assigned an Enhanced Risk of severe weather to most of the area, especially south and west of the Tri-Cities. Again, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but at least a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Looking ahead, although limited rain chances continue into Sunday for parts of the area, the risk for severe storms will depart well off to the east, with little to no risk of severe weather following through the next several days, although another decent chance of rain appears on track for around Tuesday night. Next week as a whole will feature slightly cooler than average temperatures, with highs expected to be in the 60s on most days.

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The JMA has come out with its new 3 monthly runs for June-Aug which basically are the summer months.  No drastic changes and the model is right in line with the other climate models that point towards a cooler than normal central/southern CONUS.  June may end up closer to normal near the Lakes and there sure doesn't seem like there will be any shortages in rainfall.  I noticed the model is seeing a lot of troughiness near the 4 corners/southwest by July/Aug where tropical activity may start out real early as the eastern Pacific waters are quite warm.  It'll be good to get some added moisture here in the desert southwest.

 

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Broke the daily rainfall record here in Phoenix...Sky Harbor airport officially at 0.34" (old record 0.11")...LOL...storms are brewing and heading my way!  Flying back to Chitown Tuesday...looks like the wx for MDW ain't looking to shabby near the Lakes.  Can't wait for the Hawks to start the Western Conference Final!  Thought about driving down to Anaheim this weekend to check out Game 1 on Sunday, but decided to save the money and fly back instead.  Probably will buy a hawks ticket and go to a game back home.

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Broke the daily rainfall record here in Phoenix...Sky Harbor airport officially at 0.34" (old record 0.11")...LOL...storms are brewing and heading my way!  Flying back to Chitown Tuesday...looks like the wx for MDW ain't looking to shabby near the Lakes.  Can't wait for the Hawks to start the Western Conference Final!  Thought about driving down to Anaheim this weekend to check out Game 1 on Sunday, but decided to save the money and fly back instead.  Probably will buy a hawks ticket and go to a game back home.

Man, you have been out there for a while now!

Looking like 50s and 60s around here next week.

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Man, you have been out there for a while now!

Looking like 50s and 60s around here next week.

I'm getting a taste of cooler wx as we speak.  It's cooled to 58F now!  A bit nippy for AZ standards and it snowed about 9" in the high country!  It hasn't been this chilly since about 2 or 3 weeks ago.  It's about time to head back and enjoy the Midwestern climo.  I enjoy heading up to Wisco with my friends....beach, bon fires, babes and boats!

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DMX talking about the typhoon effects:
IT IS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER PERIOD SUB-NORMAL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW  
THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CHANGE IN TREND TOWARD COOLER WEATHER  
APPEARS TO BE IN PART TO THE RECURVATURE OF TYPHOON NOUL...AND  
AFTER NEXT WEEKEND THE RECURVATURE EXPECTED WITH TYPHOON DOLPHIN.  
 

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DMX talking about the typhoon effects:

IT IS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER PERIOD SUB-NORMAL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW  

THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CHANGE IN TREND TOWARD COOLER WEATHER  

APPEARS TO BE IN PART TO THE RECURVATURE OF TYPHOON NOUL...AND  

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND THE RECURVATURE EXPECTED WITH TYPHOON DOLPHIN.  

 

Nobody cares.

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Low and behold, are we going to see a wet/stormy Sun/Mon period over Memorial Day weekend near the Lakes?  GFS has been hinting at it now for a couple days now.  D**n it!  I hope it goes south but if it ends up becoming a wet period, the LRC was spot on weeks out if you had to make an educated prediction.

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Interesting records being broken here in Phoenix:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/pns/2015/May/15MayRecords.png

 

 

 

Could be a sign of a cooler than normal summer and an active subtropical season near the Baja late this summer.

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Maxim, we also don't care that you've been struggling with pms lately, so save the attitude.

 

I'm in SE MN as we speak, and im actually surprised to see such strong wording from the local AFD as well as the SPC. Things are going to get interesting, I can tell the moisture is definitely in place already!

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Tomorrow should be a interesting day weather wise. Servere weather? Odds differently seem better tomorrow vs last weekend when it was a Major bust least for eastern iowa. Differently will be checking weather before heading out tomarrow to a already planned outdoor event.

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Today was a super nice day! Not much rain though - 0.02". SE breeze had the fog near the lake shore when I was down there earlier in the day. High of 73°.

Very pleasant out right now.

 

Few pictures from the prairies near the state line.

You can see the green up has still yet to be completed.

 

 

10012890_10206949767249589_8477293031115

 

11262439_10206949770089660_7377038821080

 

11206649_10206949769649649_5786738438496

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Noticed SPC lowered the chance for severe weather over most of eastern iowa, Illinois. Unlikely were see any servere weather today. I Believe today will be mostly dry warm humid sticky day Minus extreme north eastern iowa, southeast Minnesota where still decent shot at severe weather.

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Sun was partially out for an hour and a half, now cloudy with a steady SE wind. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Dewpoint down to the low 60s here with strong wind.  As expected, our storm chance this afternoon is very low.  Stormwise, this is the second dud weekend in a row.  It appears we'll get to try again next weekend.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The NAM and Euro are both suggesting the temp could be stuck in the upper 40s on Wednesday with a sub-zero 850 mb temp and light rain through the afternoon.  The GFS isn't quite that cold and neither is the NWS forecast.  The average high is in the mid 70s, so that is quite a departure, even if only for a day.

 

Hopefully, there will be enough wind to keep the temp up Tuesday morning and keep frost away.  I'd prefer to not have to cover anything now that all my tender plants are in the ground.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tuesday night I have a forecasted low of 37°. Pretty darn cool for the 3rd week of May.

 

Only a trace of rain today. Too many clouds today to get destabilization. 

81° for a high.

 

The sunset tonight though was awesome!

 

post-7-0-84870200-1431914206_thumb.jpg

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Snowing in Bismarck and areas to the north of the city tonight! Definitely not time to plant crops up there yet.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Very cool weather predicted for US in the Central Plains.  Most have had good rains, though as always, some places haven't done as well precip. wise as other.  NWS Hastings even predicting frost for areas well north of Interstate 80.

 

FileL (3).png

 

It will be a cool start to the work week, with high temperatures at least 10 degrees below normal for today. Sky cover will be variable across the region today, with north-northwesterly winds diminishing with time into the 10 to 15 mph range. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight there will be a chance that far northern portions of the area may see some patchy frost, as low temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s. Further south, lows tonight are expected to drop into the lower 40s. Rain chances will be on the increase as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, with the best chances coming Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. High temperatures both days remain in the 50s, with some locations in the west possibly struggling to reach the 50 degree mark on Tuesday. Dry conditions are in the forecast for Thursday with highs back in the 60s. Looking ahead to Friday into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, plenty of uncertainty remains, but there is the potential the upper level pattern will be an unsettled one, with additional precipitation chances and below normal temperatures. Stay tuned!

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The cold phase of the LRC returning right on schedule.  Not looking forward to coming back to daytime high temps in the low 50's on Wednesday!  MDW still looking a bit stormy Sun/Mon period and it looks like the early April Severe wx outbreak will be cycling through during the upcoming weekend.  Will it produce Tornado's again?  The potential is certainly there and the dynamics are looking interesting.

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That's a cool looking heartland...with a lot of rain being forecast over the next 2 weeks...I'm wondering if the commodity pricing on corn & soybeans this year will be less than last year's price when there were record amounts of corn supply.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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Temperature is really dropping on the NW wind now. Noticed the cloud deck on the western horizon at sunset.


 


76° for a high. CAA is definitely strong tonight.


Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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My area here in SEMI is in for another frost advisory for tomorrow night. Lows are expected to bottom out at around 35F or so. It will feel great after a muggy start to the week. Temps stay cool right through the end of the week before warmer air returns by the weekend, along with wet weather too.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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