June 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Caught my first ever Muskie early this morning around 7:50am trolling in Lake Marie on the Chain O'Lakes...she took on a fight and it was all worth it.  The fish that was once known as "Fish of 10,000 Casts" is no longer...its a rather illusive predator in the waters and one of the more enjoyable fish I have caught.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Tekamah, NE, north of Omaha, just hit 100.

[Tom]

Tekamah, NE, north of Omaha, just hit 100.

Places in S Wisco reaching 90F today...I think ORD has a shot at reaching that mark for the first time this year...the Plains are poised to bake next week.

[Tom]

Took this photo of the "fire" sun this morning just after sunrise.  The picture doesn't really do it justice, but it was quite the view due to the smoke from the forest fires all the way up near Saskatchewan.  All morning the skies had a "firey" look to them.

[Geos]

So that's why the sun and sky looked so weird this morning!

 

Reached 84°, warmest days of the year so far. Lake breeze kicked in afterwards and knocked it down into the 70s late in the afternoon. Air feels really stale tonight - not much of a breeze.

 

That's a good sized Muskie Tom! 

[Tom]

So that's why the sun and sky looked so weird this morning!

 

Reached 84°, warmest days of the year so far. Lake breeze kicked in afterwards and knocked it down into the 70s late in the afternoon. Air feels really stale tonight - not much of a breeze.

 

That's a good sized Muskie Tom! 

Thanks!  Looking forward to going again next Wed weather permitting.  A couple weeks ago, anglers were pulling out 50"+ Muskie's out of that lake during the tournament.

 

It's a fantastic evening out there tonight.  Perfect summer feel and there was an amazing sunset as well.  I think this week is definitely putting a smile on everyone's faces!

[Geos]

Thanks!  Looking forward to going again next Wed weather permitting.  A couple weeks ago, anglers were pulling out 50"+ Muskie's out of that lake during the tournament.

 

It's a fantastic evening out there tonight.  Perfect summer feel and there was an amazing sunset as well.  I think this week is definitely putting a smile on everyone's faces!

 

Chances of more rain loom though after tomorrow. I hope the theme this summer isn't going to be rain on the weekend and nicer during the work week!

 

Highs have backed off the 80s later in the week, but still mild around here.

[james1976]

Northern Iowa in the heavy rain threat thu pm-fri am. I want some storms!

[Tom]

Big time rains coming for areas that really haven't seen much of late...

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

[Tom]

12z NAM showing nearly 5-7 inches of rain in Sothern/East-Central WI for Thursday into Friday.

Looks like your area is now in the prime spot to get some flooding rains.  It has been rather quiet around your neck of the woods this Spring.  Now that Summer is in full swing, looks like more active weather is on the menu.

[Madtown]

Last Thurs morning.

[Geos]

Made it to 85° today before winds shifts ENE/NE. Hit the 60s by the time rush hour came about. A good 100 miles to the south I was able to see the anvil heads of the thunderstorms that pushed severe limits.

 

[james1976]

Heck of a storm train lining up in west-central IL.

[Tom]

It officially hit 92F yesterday at ORD and with the warmth, it sprung some intense severe storms.  In fact, there were reports of 4.25" hail near Minooka, IL and that actually came close to breaking a state record for the largest hail in the state.

 

 

 

188
NOUS43 KLOT 111138
PNSLOT
ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
112345-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
638 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...GIANT HAIL RECORDED IN MINOOKA ON JUNE 10TH...

SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY JUNE 10TH. ONE OF THESE PASSED OVER MINOOKA ILLINOIS IN
GRUNDY COUNTY BETWEEN 715 AND 725 PM AND PRODUCED ISOLATED GIANT
HAIL OF UP TO OVER FOUR INCHES IN DIAMETER. THERE WERE MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF HAIL TO 4.25 INCHES IN DIAMETER FROM THE PUBLIC. SOME
OF THIS HAIL CAUSED SEVERE DAMAGE TO VEHICLE WINDSHIELDS.

LOOKING AT LARGE HAIL DATA THROUGH THE STORM DATA EVENTS DATABASE
FROM THE NOAA NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER /NCDC/...INFORMATION
WAS RETRIEVED THAT MAY HELP TO PUT HAIL THIS SIZE INTO
PERSPECTIVE. RECORDS ON HAIL DATA DATE BACK TO 1950 BUT BECAME
MORE DETAILED AND ROBUST BEGINNING IN THE MID TO LATE 1990S.
ACCORDING TO THE DATABASE:

- THIS WAS THE SECOND LARGEST HAIL IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ONLY INSTANCE OF OBSERVED LARGER HAIL WAS ON APRIL
23 1961...WHEN SIX INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN KANKAKEE
COUNTY.

- BESIDES THE 1961 INSTANCE NOTED ABOVE...THERE WAS ONE OTHER
OCCASION IN THE NWS CHICAGO COUNTY WARNING AREA WHERE HAIL OF THIS
LARGE IN DIAMETER WAS RECORDED...AND THAT WAS ON JUNE 14 2010 WHEN
4.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL OCCURRED IN BOSWELL OF BENTON COUNTY
INDIANA.

- THIS WAS THE LARGEST HAIL IN THE STATE OF ILLINOIS SINCE APRIL
28 2012...WHEN 4.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN OKAWVILLE
IN WASHINGTON COUNTY.

- SINCE 2005...HAIL OF THIS LARGE IN DIAMETER IS REPORTED ABOUT
35-40 TIMES A YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...ALMOST ALL OF
THESE REPORTS ARE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

 

 

[james1976]

1.02" so far today but nothing exciting. 60s and a chilly rain. Was hoping for tstorm action but it never seems to happen.

[Tom]

Flood Watches and now a Tornado Watch has been hoisted in N IL....should be an interested evening of weather and overnight hours.  Already a Tornado warning issued near Davenport, IA.

[Geos]

Anyone from the Twin Cities area?

 

Closest member I can think of is, Gosaints from near Rochester.

[Geos]

Flood Watches and now a Tornado Watch has been hoisted in N IL....should be an interested evening of weather and overnight hours.  Already a Tornado warning issued near Davenport, IA.

 

I read earlier today that the surface low pressure is taking a more southern route - probably due to the broad area of NE wind blowing off the Great Lakes. Now the heaviest rain is going to be focused further south.

Had some brief downpours earlier today in Racine. Now with a solid moderate stratiform rain. Reached only 66°. 

60s are going to dominate the next 2 days.

[Hawkeye]

Currently getting smoked here in Cedar Rapids.  Storms have really blown up and backbuilt from CR westward.  The wind isn't bad and the lightning/thunder is modest, but the rain is torrential.

[Hawkeye]

I ended with 4.35 inches of rain.  A couple inches of that fell in 35 minutes, but the rest was spread out enough to limit any flooding in my yard.  A couple hours of lightning and thunder was nice.

[james1976]

I ended with 4.35 inches of rain.  A couple inches of that fell in 35 minutes, but the rest was spread out enough to limit any flooding in my yard.  A couple hours of lightning and thunder was nice.

You guys got rocked down there. I ended up with 1.42" storm total.

[NEJeremy]

1.95" of rain overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning here. Now today it's only in the mid 60's and cloudy. Summer should start here sometime right, lol?!

[Geos]

Been getting cooler as the day goes on. Mid 50s with light fog and occasional shower all day. 0.53" of rain so far.

 

Lake Michigan still running cool. 39° at the mid lake bouy.

 

[james1976]

DMX talking possible 90s by next Saturday with "summer storms" and then a big trough moving in by next Sunday with much cooler air.

[Geos]

I know one thing, it needs to dry out. Can't finish up outside projects in this type of weather.

 

0.78" of rain overnight - not including the moderate rain falling now. 

Looks like a big flood potential this week as tropical moisture gets into the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.

 

 

[Geos]

Rainfall in the last 2 weeks.

 

 

 

[james1976]

Andrew is coming back to The Weather Centre. Thats good news.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

[Tom]

All is clear from the TSA...Lord Stanley is making its way to the Madhouse on Madison baby!  Heading to the city shortly along with thousands of loyal Hawks fans in the hopes of seeing the Hawks hoist the Cup for the first time at home in 77 years!  Let's make history boys!

 

 

 

 

[Madtown]

The cup wasn't there in 38. Everyone didn't give them a chance. Hope it happens tonight!

[Geos]

About 1.84" of rain in the last 48 hours here. Walking on the ground is like walking on wet sponges. Fog has rolled in with vengeance. < 1/4 mile visibility.

[Tom]

The Hawks have hoisted the Cup once again!  What an epic night in the city.  While the pregame newscasts were going on, torrential rains, Tornado sirens were going off in the city and a funnel cloud was spotted near Midway.  Even Mother Nature had her shenanigans prior to the game's puck drop which delayed the Cups arrival due to flooding on the Eisenhower.

 

Anyhow, June's run of the JAMSTEC is in and the same ol' story which alot of us have been experiencing seems to be the drill through the remainder of our summer season.  Above normal precip along with cooler temps, esp in the bread basket of the nation...temps are above normal near the Lakes.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2015.1jun2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2015.1jun2015.gif

 

Looking out farther towards next Fall...a very wet pattern for the eastern 2/3rd of the nation.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2015.1jun2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2015.1jun2015.gif

 

 

Next Winter....same SST's in the N Pacific as we have seen last year, along with a strong Modiki El Nino.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1jun2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1jun2015.gif

[Tom]

All the models are coming into agreement for next week and want to create a "dome of heat" in the Plains that should generate some active waves of storms as a "Ring of Fire" pattern evolves.

[Geos]

Today was perfect weather, especially when coming off of 5 days with measurable rain! Mostly sunny with a high of 66°.

55°/45° currently. Looks to hit the upper 40s tonight.

 

16.29" of rain year to date.

 

The soils are wet enough to support a numerous thunderstorm complexes, but I don't see any strong heat domes building over those wet soils - especially with Bill coming to keep things wet in the southern Plains. Wouldn't be surprised if another tropical system takes aim at Texas later in the summer.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah last week it was showing it super hot here by this week, and now we're only supposed to be in the 80s all week which is about average.

[Geos]

Forecast was calling for at least 80° every day this week, now the forecast is for 70s and even a few days in the 60s.

 

High of only 67° today.

[Maxim]

Forecast was calling for at least 80° every day this week, now the forecast is for 70s and even a few days in the 60s.

 

High of only 67° today.

Only one day below 80 in the forecast: Friday. Unless you live Duluth or something, I'm not sure where you're seeing that.

[Tom]

CPC Outlook issued today for July...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif

[james1976]

Where are we sitting currently with the El Nino? Weak?

[Geos]

Where are we sitting currently with the El Nino? Weak?

 

Yeah, there is an El Niño now. March, April, May SST departure was +0.7.

[Geos]

Only one day below 80 in the forecast: Friday. Unless you live Duluth or something, I'm not sure where you're seeing that.

 

I'm close to the lake...

Currently forecasted temps stand at: 64/51, 81/53, 76/66, 79/61, 73/60, 72/57, 77/58.

A ten degree difference between here and Mundelein is quite common.