June 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Interesting note from Mike Hammernick...avg Lake Michigan temp (51F) which is equivalent to late Oct/early Nov levels.

 

[Geos]

Interesting note from Mike Hammernick...avg Lake Michigan temp (51F) which is equivalent to late Oct/early Nov levels.

 

 

Running as cold as last year too. Was at the lakefront this morning and it was chilly down there with some patchy light fog blowing on the wind. Since then it has warmed up, but now raining.

[Money]

Looks like a potential severe weather outbreak on Monday

 

From SPC:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1434876413552

 

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...

   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS

   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE 60 TO 80 KT

   MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES

   REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE

   MID MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES

   SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST

   AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F

   WHICH SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS

   MUCH OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. 

   IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW

   IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM THAT APPEARS

   QUITE ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET COUPLET.

   THIS COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF

   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. CONSIDERING

   THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO THE BE

   MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE

   CONSERVATIVE CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND

   ORGANIZATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. MANY PROBLEMS EXIST FOR

   DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE INCLUDING 1) HOW

   MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE SETUP IN THE AFTERNOON AND 2) HOW

   FAR NORTH WILL THE CAPPING INVERSION IMPEDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

 

   THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A MORNING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE

   POTENTIAL WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM ERN MN AND ERN IA ACROSS SRN

   WI...NRN IL AND INTO IND AROUND MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE

   MORNING MCS...AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN MO

   NWD INTO ERN IA WITH NEW CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE NRN END OF THE

   STRONG INSTABILITY IN FAR SE MN AND NWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE. NAM

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ON MONDAY FOR MADISON WI SHOW IMPRESSIVE

   THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH MLCAPE ABOVE 4000 J/KG AND

   0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 60 TO 70 KT. THIS WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR

   SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT A CLUSTER

   OF SUPERCELLS COULD ORGANIZE DURING THE MID TO LATE

   AFTERNOON...MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN WI AND CROSSING LAKE MI

   INTO LOWER MI BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT

   A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND A LONG-TRACK TORNADO CAN NOT BE

   RULED OUT. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR A SEVERE WIND PRODUCING

   LINEAR MCS THAT MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS WI DURING THE LATE

   AFTERNOON REACHING LOWER MI BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY

   OF A HIGH-END EVENT FOR EITHER TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE...THE

   ENHANCED AREA WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF WI AND LOWER MI

   WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA ALSO INCLUDING SERN MN.

[Tom]

The Summer Solstice officially begins at 11:38 am CST today along with the longest day of the year!  Can't believe how fast this year is going by and how darn WET it has been around here.  I think it may be a little wetter than last year by this time.

 

Future Radar showing 2 lines of storms in the early afternoon for N IL and then again later in the evening.  This summer season certainly hasn't been a boring one that's for sure.  Last nights vivid lighting display was very impressive.  Perfect beach day today and ample sunshine.  Happy Father's Day!

[Tom]

Looking out towards the 4th of July weekend, the cold phase of the LRC will be returning as the NW NAMER ridge pops and a trough begins to develop over the eastern CONUS.  Hopefully it wont disrupt any plans near the Lakes region.  So far there is much discrepancy between the Euro/GFS in the extended.

[Geos]

Looking like a enhanced risk of severe weather into northern IL also tomorrow. Newest SPC day 2 mentioning the expansion of the moderate risk area.

 

At 7pm tomorrow.

 

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015  
 
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS  
VALLEY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO LOWER  
GREAT LAKES...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL/NE  
STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE  
INTENSE...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY.  
   
..UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES  
 
STRONGLY CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WITH POTENTIAL FOR  
CLUSTERS OF INTENSE SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE  
HAZARDS POSSIBLE. BUT WILL DEFER GIVEN ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH  
REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF LATE D1 CONVECTION WITH ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECT  
ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ALONG WITH  
TIMING OF THE PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITH RESPECT TO  
PEAK HEATING.  
 
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRENGTHENING  
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED  
MCV FROM LATE D1/EARLY D2 AND APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WOULD  
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL WAA OF THE RICHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS CURRENTLY  
PRESENT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. AVAILABLE CAMS VARY MARKEDLY WITH  
THE DAYTIME EVOLUTION OF AN MCS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS  
OF SRN MN/NRN IA. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK ON THE EDGE OF  
A ROBUST PLAINS EML. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO MAY RESULT IN LEAD  
CONVECTION OUTPACING THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT  
CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LARGE  
BUOYANCY.  
 
AT LEAST SCATTERED UPSTREAM TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE  
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN WI SW TO THE IA/IL  
BORDER AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DIABATIC HEATING  
OVERCOME INHIBITION DUE TO THE INITIALLY STOUT EML. SUPERCELLS ARE  
EXPECTED IN INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME OF THIS  
CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY VEERED IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL  
IMPULSE...MAIN HAZARDS WITH SW EXTENT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL  
TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINATELY SEVERE WIND. WHERE 850 MB WINDS CAN  
REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /MOST LIKELY  
IN ERN WI TO LOWER MI/...A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND/OR  
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP.  
 
..GRAMS.. 06/21/2015  

 

[Geos]

Newest SPC severe weather risk map.

 

[Geos]

MCS charging its way eastward from MN and IA. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly.php

 

Cold pool forming in back of it will probably cause it to turn more SE later this morning.

 

71/68 currently.

[Yerf]

keep an eye on this for WI and Northern IL

 

[Geos]

It's going to follow the warm front right in.

 

 

 

[Tom]

80-94mph winds have been reported with the bow echo...should be an interesting morning around here if the line of storms holds...looks like it may be weakening some as it heads east.

[Tom]

There looks to be some rotation on radar near Madison, WI...check out this radar imagery....

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-12

[Money]

Interested to see if there's any redevelopment this aft

 

Already starting to clear out in la crosse area and HRRR shows redevelopment around 20-21z

[james1976]

Lots of damage all over the place. High wind and large hail. My place is fine. Just some limbs came down. Picked up 1.28" with this morning's storms.

[Tom]

Looks like the 2nd line of storms starting to blossom over N IA/W WI out ahead of the approaching cold front.  Nothing big now, but should become explosive over the next 1-2 hours as day time heating does its job.

[Geos]

Earlier the show wasn't very impressive. Winds in the 30mph range, some lightning and heavy rain. It dark enough though to turn the street lamps on. 

[Seahawkfan]

Storms starting to fire up over south central Iowa now. Interesting lat afternoon & evening looking promising.

[Geos]

Tornado warning west of Sterling, IL. Big supercell.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015ILC195-230030-/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150623T0030Z/WHITESIDE IL-702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FORWHITESIDE COUNTY...AT 701 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED OVER EMERSON...OR NEAR STERLING...MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS         LIKELY.THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  EMERSON AROUND 705 PM CDT.  ROCK FALLS AROUND 710 PM CDT.  STERLING AROUND 715 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEAGNEW...UNIONVILLE...DOUGLAS PARK...WHITE PIGEON...GALT...ROUNDGROVE...GRIMES ADDITION...MALVERN...COMO AND MORRISON/ROCKWOOD PARK.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 40.

[Hawkeye]

The morning MCS passed just north of me.  As was the case Saturday, however, the tail end kept bubbling up.  One cell dropped large hail a few miles north of me.  Another cell dropped pea size hail at my house.  I finished with 1.02" of rain.  My June total is up to 8.07".

[Tom]

 

Tornado warning west of Sterling, IL. Big supercell.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015ILC195-230030-/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150623T0030Z/WHITESIDE IL-702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FORWHITESIDE COUNTY...AT 701 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED OVER EMERSON...OR NEAR STERLING...MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS         LIKELY.THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  EMERSON AROUND 705 PM CDT.  ROCK FALLS AROUND 710 PM CDT.  STERLING AROUND 715 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEAGNEW...UNIONVILLE...DOUGLAS PARK...WHITE PIGEON...GALT...ROUNDGROVE...GRIMES ADDITION...MALVERN...COMO AND MORRISON/ROCKWOOD PARK.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 40.

I've been watching WGN live tracking this storm...this is one massive super cell storm.  Night time storms are so much more dangerous.  Feel bad for those ppl that have received damage.

[Geos]

I've been watching WGN live tracking this storm...this is one massive super cell storm.  Night time storms are so much more dangerous.  Feel bad for those ppl that have received damage.

 

I've been trying to watch all the cells from central IL to NE MI. As I've been reading the damage reports, it seems a little town of Deckerville, MI; near Lake Huron, was heavily hit.

 

Overall had 0.27" of rain today.

[Tom]

I've been trying to watch all the cells from central IL to NE MI. As I've been reading the damage reports, it seems a little town of Deckerville, MI; near Lake Huron, was heavily hit.

 

Overall had 0.27" of rain today.

I think this storm is producing multiple tornado's within the same super cell!  I don't see this storm weakening as it heads SE into IN.  Dewpoints are in the upper 70's in IN..

[Geos]

I think this storm is producing multiple tornado's within the same super cell!  I don't see this storm weakening as it heads SE into IN.  Dewpoints are in the upper 70's in IN..

 

Tornado warning was dropped now, but damage reports coming in. Houses damaged in Coal City for sure. I-55 shut down south of Joliet also. < This is due to high tension power lines across all lanes and tree debris.

Tornado came within 1/2 mile of the nuclear power plant in Braidwood. Talk about just adverting a disaster.

[Tom]

Coal City was one of the towns that sustained severe damage and thankfully NO deaths.  They also were hit on Nov 17th 2013 when we had a huge severe weather outbreak in Illinois a couple years back.  I remember that storm system was an important part of the LRC pattern that year.

[Seahawkfan]

Crazy intense storms last night. First time since i moved here to iowa that i"ve seen so many tornado warned thunderstorms all at the same time. Lucky us we were just missed by the one in s.e iowa. Storm chaser posted a video on youtube looked like a hurricane inside that storm. awesome video.

[Tom]

Another round of Severe weather Wednesday...

 

[Tom]

Just a thought, but I'm hoping this mature El Nino can continue it's wet weather pattern into the Fall/Winter months.  One could only imagine the kind of snow fall totals we would see if all plays out just right.  

[Hawkeye]

The morning MCS activity in sw/s Iowa will play a role in how far north Wednesday night's severe/flooding develops.

[james1976]

Just a thought, but I'm hoping this mature El Nino can continue it's wet weather pattern into the Fall/Winter months.  One could only imagine the kind of snow fall totals we would see if all plays out just right.  

I was just telling a friend of mine this same thing today.

[Geos]

18Z GFS shows this area for heavy rainfall...

The exact locations that don't need it!

[Tom]

I think the Enhanced Risk will eventually jog a bit north and cover N IL and even parts of S WI.  WRF/RPM/GFS taking the MCS a bit farther north now.

[Hawkeye]

Significant convection is backbuilding across southern Iowa this morning.  This has certainly been the trend this week with late night MCSs.

[Tom]

After today/tonight's storms, I'm really looking forward to enjoy some dry weather and sunshine Fri-Sun.  We certainly need a good period of dry weather around here.  We may finally have a delightful weekend of weather...albeit a bit cool for late June standards.

[james1976]

Local met says the next 2 weeks are expected to be below normal temps. Must be the cold phase of the LRC.

[james1976]

July-Sept is expected to be cooler around here.
http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/late-summer-temperature-forecast-july-august-september

[Tom]

I think the warm front has pushed a little farther north than expected...meantime, storms really starting to fire in IA and heading due east...

[Geos]

Heavy rain threat seems to have sunk a bit south tonight. Flash Flood Watch no longer in effect for Lake or McHenry Counties. Made it to 78° today with a onshore breeze all afternoon. Pretty comfortable out tonight.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
924 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015  
   
UPDATE  
 
924 PM CDT  
 
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER  
STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND  
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO  
RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS  
HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO  
OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE  
THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST  
STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN  
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED  
ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW  
IT TO WITH ANY HASTE.  
 
THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES  
INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF  
THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING  
LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING  
UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD  
SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD  
STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE  
DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST  
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT  
IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST  
INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES  
IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN  
LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACKBUILDING  
VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT.  
THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.  
 
MTF  

 

[Tom]

Was woken up around 3:30 this morning to a really intense rainfall from some active storms.  Everything is so damp and wet this morning and I'm really looking forward to some dry weather today thru Sunday.  The grass is growing so fast I need to cut it 2x per week now with all this rain!  I'm sure all the gardens around our region and certainly loving all this rain.

 

Meantime, an unusual high latitude blocking pattern is setting up over the Northern Hemisphere for the opening days of July which is directly related to the "cold phase" of the LRC pattern.  GFS showing some real chilly high temps near the Great Lakes during the 4th of July weekend.  Might need to pack some light sweaters if your traveling for the holiday.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Hawkeye]

A lone storm that held together long enough on the northeast flank of last night's MCS gave me some good lightning and 0.72" of rain.  My daily total was 1.15".  Areas south and west really got nailed.

[Tom]

It's rather peculiar to see the GFS runs come in and all are showing "Clipper" type systems rounding the base of the trough as we approach the month of July.  CFSv2 is looking really cool for next month.