July 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

I'll have to count how many days in the 60s, but there has been quite a few!

 

Live satellite loop of the smoke venturing to the southeast.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/

[East Dubzz]

What pleasant weather we have had lately

[Geos]

My God, how many days this summer have you been in the 60s? You must be right close to the lake?

 

4 miles away.

Out of the 39 days since June 1st it breaks down like this.

For highs:

 

50s: 1

60s: 15

70s: 14

80s: 9

90s: 0

 

So you can imagine how many more days closer to the lake that have been in the 60s! I've only had to turn on the AC about 6x this year!

 

For lows:

 

70s: 0

60s: 4

50s: 22

40s: 12

30s: 1

 

Excellent sleeping weather this summer!

 

---

 

Great shot of the smoke plume as it makes its way southward this evening.

 

[Geos]

Signals are showing up of a pattern change for the west, and the LRC's warm phase should begin to emerge late next week (July 16-20th).  When I was in AZ for the month of May, it was down right pleasant with below normal temps during the previous cycle.  Meanwhile, from IA and points east it was a rather warm month.  Let's see how warm it gets around here for the later half of July.

 

Thought I'd share this. El Niño expected to peak before winter really starts...

 

[East Dubzz]

Don't like the sound of that

[james1976]

My God that would be a strong el nino. I hope not cuz i dont recall strong el nino's being cold and snowy.

[Tom]

My God that would be a strong el nino. I hope not cuz i dont recall strong el nino's being cold and snowy.

Not all El Nino's are the same tho.  The warm waters in the N PAC are going to play a big role, just not sure how the whole pattern evolves as we head into the Fall/Winter months.  I heard the new ECMWF seasonal run is showing a huge NW NAMER ridge which will offset any significant warming from a strong El Nino.  I believe if the Pacific jet gets set up in the early Fall, your going to see some very strong storm systems pound Cali and then emerge east of the Rockies.  We'll just have to see how this all plays out.

[Tom]

Here comes the warmth...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Geos]

Monday looks to be a day of severe weather across the Central Plains. Some models are showing insane CAPE values in excess of 8000j/kg! Dewpoints that could hit 80° also.

 

[Tom]

Ring of Fire pattern should fuel some strong storms nearby...the ridge that is building out in the Plains should become pretty intense producing triple digit heat!  Like you said Geo's, this should bring a ton of fuel into the atmosphere.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png

[Geos]

Extremely unstable atmosphere in Iowa, southern MN and western IL tomorrow.

 

[james1976]

SPC has really upgraded the severe risk for tonight. Enhanced to Moderate risk over here.

[Tom]

Here is an interesting article I found regarding the Solar Cycles and where the future may be heading.  Also, it touches on the similarities of the "Maunder Minimum" and where the sun spot cycles may be heading in the years of 2020-2030...

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html

[Tom]

Severe Threat has increased for Mon/Mon night...

 

[Geos]

Derecho getting its act together in eastern MN right now. Expected to plow SE towards Milwaukee and Chicago by morning.

 

Didn't make 80° today, but at 77° with a little humidity it felt like it.

 

[Tom]

Very impressive severe wx set up tonight over N IL...Tornado Watch has just been hoisted!  Dew points are in the low/mid 70's and the atmosphere is prime for explosive development.  This has to be the most humid day of the year thus far and absolutely NO Lake cooling.  Geo's, you should be like mid Summer wx has arrived!

[Geos]

Storms to the northwest mean business now! Tornado warning west of Madison.

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
643 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT  
 
* AT 642 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRING GREEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF  
DODGEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...  
BARNEVELD...BLUE MOUND ST PARK...ARENA...RIDGEWAY AND BLUE MOUNDS.  
 

 

 

[Geos]

Atrocious outside right now. 82°/76°/89°

Windows are steaming up as the storms roll closer.

[Geos]

Heads up if you live northwest of Chicago. Cell with strong rotation.

 

[james1976]

Kind of a cloudy, cool day over here. Rain is already in western Iowa. Sounds like triple digit heat index again this weekend.

[james1976]

Guy from NOAA was on TWC saying this is the strongest el nino ever and that a pattern change is coming. Gonna be interesting to see how this unfolds heading into the fall.

[Tom]

The JMA's 3-month outlook shows what I see happening in the GOA as we head into the Fall months.  In August, NW NAMER continues to roast while the eastern CONUS enjoy's pretty much normal temps.  As we head into September, you can see the GOA trough placed south of the Aleutians where the ECMWF & JAMSTEC see it being placed as well.  This is important as we head into October and the new LRC pattern sets up.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Another chilly night last night in my neck of the woods this July, being the second time thus far this month with lows dropping into the 40s and to be exact, 48F. It was a record low. The old record was 49F. My airmass was so refreshing yesterday, so delightful to be outside. Too bad the humidity returns soon.

 

This weekend will be the first time this summer that temperatures in my area hit the 90 degree mark. Pretty amazing.

[james1976]

The JMA's 3-month outlook shows what I see happening in the GOA as we head into the Fall months.  In August, NW NAMER continues to roast while the eastern CONUS enjoy's pretty much normal temps.  As we head into September, you can see the GOA trough placed south of the Aleutians where the ECMWF & JAMSTEC see it being placed as well.  This is important as we head into October and the new LRC pattern sets up.

Is this typical of an El Nino?

[Tom]

Is this typical of an El Nino?

Not necessarily.  Every El Nino is different and the one El Nino that comes close enough to the same SST setup in the Pacific as this coming winter season would be 1919-1920.  I read an article posted on Wx Bell of that winter and it had -7F/-8F departures near the Lakes that Winter.

[Tom]

A couple Tornado Warnings have popped up in W IL near Clinton, IA and Galesburg, IL....storms starting to really explode and drop torrential rains over here.

[james1976]

Not necessarily.  Every El Nino is different and the one El Nino that comes close enough to the same SST setup in the Pacific as this coming winter season would be 1919-1920.  I read an article posted on Wx Bell of that winter and it had -7F/-8F departures near the Lakes that Winter.

Yeah, i was reading some articles about past El Nino's and some have been colder and wetter than normal around here. So I guess you just never know.

[Tom]

Some 2015-16 Winter Outlooks coming out....

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/united-states-winter-2015-16-forecast.php

[james1976]

Some 2015-16 Winter Outlooks coming out....

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/united-states-winter-2015-16-forecast.php

That's a good read. Sounds like he knows his stuff.

[james1976]

Another one.....
http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/

[Geos]

Decent rain rates up this way between 5-6 pm especially. Cool day today - well appreciated before the heat. 0.60" so far.

71°/53° today

 

Going to open an El Niño discussion.

[Yerf]

Heat Advisory issued.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ SATURDAY.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES...MIDDLE 90S.

* PEAK HEAT INDICES...105 TO 110 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
  OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS WHICH MAY CAUSE HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES TO
  DEVELOP DUE TO PROLONGED EXPOSURE...PARTICULARLY THE ELDERLY AND
  THOSE WITH PRE-EXISTING HEALTH CONDITIONS.
 

[Maxim]

Hottest day in 3 years tomorrow probably. Wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated 100 degree reading near the area.

[Geos]

Fell short on the heat today due to convection. Not surprised thunderstorms took off over the areas that got hit hard last night. Mid 60 degree dewpoints currently.

[Maxim]

every site in Illinois reached or exceeded 90 except for UGN lol

[Geos]

every site in Illinois reached or exceeded 90 except for UGN lol

 

It's the coldest location based on averages in the state! Not surprised. MKE hit 90°, for the first time in about 2 years.

[East Dubzz]

Really not looking forward to working outside in the heat today. Stuff is brutal.

[Geos]

Currently experiencing a NE wind with outflow from the storms in MI. Not too bad out yet.

[Tom]

Down into the upper 70's at the moment...feels real nice with the ENE breeze off the Lake.  Debris clouds from the storms to the south in N MO might put a lid on what could have been the hottest temps today.

[Geos]

Heat advisories were dropped in WI. It's actually quite nice out with the SE wind.