July 2015 Observations and Discussion

[BrianJK]

Hottest day in 3 years tomorrow probably. Wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated 100 degree reading near the area.

So much for that. So redicoulous. Was hoping for a pool day today. Did it even make it to 90?

[Tom]

The Cap is Poppin' and Storms are Rockin'....Tornado Watch Issued for N IL/S WI

[Geos]

2.96" of rain in the last 48 hours has soaked the ground! 4.04" of rain month to date - another 13 days to go yet.

High of 82° only today. Convection ruled and beat back the heat.

 

The atmosphere and ground is loaded with water - hard to get any big heat in here because of that.

 

Looks like ORD hit 89°.

[Geos]

Summer is finally here. Last 4 days above 80°. Only took to the middle of July to get here, 

 

Month will still likely see a negative departure though. Next several days look mild and drier.

[Tom]

Summer is finally here. Last 4 days above 80°. Only took to the middle of July to get here, 

 

Month will still likely see a negative departure though. Next several days look mild and drier.

Skilling mentioned this July is 2.1F colder thus far through the month than last year believe it or not.

[Tom]

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2015/07/coolwetsummer2015-1024x255.jpg

[Tom]

Just read Gary Lezak's Blog this morning and he made a few comments on the potential effects of an El Nino next Fall/Winter...

 

 

Remember, we strongly believe that El Niño has an influence on the overall pattern. Will it be a wet winter in California to help the drought out west? Where will the biggest impacts be located?

• If a “long term” long-wave trough sets up near the west coast in the fall, then we can forecast a very wet winter for California. Every El Niño is different. There are other factors that influence the pattern. Somewhere across the southern United States will likely have major impacts from this developing positive anomaly.
• If a “long term” long-wave trough sets up in the middle of the nation, then the Rocky Mountain states and central states into the Great Lakes will have likely big impacts this winter.
• If a “long term” long-wave trough sets up east of the Mississippi River, then California would likely have yet another dry winter and the eastern states and southeast would have huge impacts.

These “long term” troughs and ridges are one major aspect of the LRC. During the past two winters these have set up east of the Mississippi River. I have studied El Niño years and the chance of a trough farther west is definitely a lot higher when El Niño is strengthening.

[Tom]

Will this be a trend as we get closer to the Fall/Winter???

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/curr_w_chg3_daily(8).gif

[Tom]

Arctic Temps have been hovering near normal as of late...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

[Tom]

Looking forward to hear what Andrew has to say about the upcoming Winter of 2015-16.  He posts his predictions this Saturday.

 

It's been a fantastic day today with a high temp near 78F and low humidity levels.  Superb weather for the rest of the work week!

 

Most of the nation below normal thus far this month...

[james1976]

Looking forward to hear what Andrew has to say about the upcoming Winter of 2015-16.  He posts his predictions this Saturday.

 

It's been a fantastic day today with a high temp near 78F and low humidity levels.  Superb weather for the rest of the work week!

 

Most of the nation below normal thus far this month...

I am surprised we are below normal, especially that much. It has seemed like a warm month. I know we are below normal for rain.

[Tom]

Been playing around with the some of the long range models and spending some extra time researching on what we may see this coming Fall/Winter.  Since we are still about 4-5 months away from meteorological Winter, I want to focus on the month of October.  There are 2 reasons why...#1) The new LRC begins setting up by then  #2) Dr. Judah Cohen developed whats called the "Snow Advance Index (SAI) and I wanted to see what the CFS is predicting for the month of October.

 

What I'm going to post below are the CFS models Snow Cover at a specific date...

 

October 1st for North America below...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/07/21/basis00/namk/weas/15100100_2100.gif

 

October 14th for North America...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/07/21/basis00/namk/weas/15101400_2100.gif

 

 

Certainly these maps are months away and they will obviously change, but I have seen this model perform "good", not "great", but gives us a decent glimpse on what the weather pattern may be in the 3 month range.  What's interesting to see is how quickly the snow cover is building over Alaska and Canada so early in the season.  I recall last year, Canada really didn't get going with it's snow cover till later in November.

 

Let's take a look on the other side of the Pole and focus our attention to Siberia.  Interestingly enough, the CFS is seeing some pockets of snow building very early on in September (probably over done)...

September 9th...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/07/21/basis00/noas/weas/15090800_2100.gif

 

Fast forward to October 1st....snow cover explodes...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/07/21/basis00/noas/weas/15100112_2100.gif

 

 

 

By mid October, the snow cover in Siberia has expanded across thousands of square miles.  Something we saw happen last year as well.  If we were to accept the SAI Theory, one would expect another harsh winter this coming season.  I am a believer that the snow cover rule is not a "cause" but a "reaction" to what Nature is saying.  The reason why snow falls earlier is because the conditions the atmosphere is setting up are properly aligning much faster signalling a harsher Winter ahead.  Who gets hit the worse this season???  Time will tell and we'll have to see how the LRC finishes setting up by Mid November.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/07/21/basis00/noas/weas/15101400_2100.gif

 

 

 

Let's see how well this model performs as we move ahead into September and October.  One thing is for certain, Millions of people across this country will be impacted from what looks to be a Strong El Nino.  I believe there will be coast to coast action from Cali to New York with an active STJ as we have a mature El Nino take place.

 

 

Go Cubbies!  Kyle Schwarber is a beast!

[Tom]

Lake Michigan finally starting to warm...Chicago Scene Boat Party this Saturday should be a blast...

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

[Tom]

Both Euro/GFS showing a pretty decent cool off towards the end of the month.  In the meantime, this week has been amazing so far and looking forward to enjoy this real summertime warmth over the next 7+ days.

[james1976]

Nice post Tom. I have a question but idk if it's possible to answer.
Is there a better chance at seeing stronger winter storms during El Nino or more so with a La Nina? The reason I ask is because it seems like there is more talk of 'severe' weather situations with an El Nino.

[Tom]

Nice post Tom. I have a question but idk if it's possible to answer.

Is there a better chance at seeing stronger winter storms during El Nino or more so with a La Nina? The reason I ask is because it seems like there is more talk of 'severe' weather situations with an El Nino.

Nobody knows for sure.  I'd imagine a warm E PAC should ignite the Pineapple Express this year which will lambaste Cali with storm systems.  Almost every Global Model is painting significant amounts of Precip in Cali which would more than likely dump precip in the 4 corners region/Rockies.  As far as the chances of seeing significant storm systems, I think with an extreme wx pattern anything is possible.  Especially when your talking about a -PDO pattern in the Pacific that produces a "wavy" jet stream pattern across North America along with a Strong El Nino.  You can just imagine how the atmosphere will respond as we head towards Fall/Winter.

[Tom]

Solar Trend continues to follow a regular pattern...heading steadily lower each month...

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

[Tom]

CFSv2/GFS & Euro Ensembles are indicating a pretty chilly open to the month of August...LRC's cold phase will be cycling back on through...

[james1976]

Solar Trend continues to follow a regular pattern...heading steadily lower each month...

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

Solar Trend continues to follow a regular pattern...heading steadily lower each month...

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

This should be a big player heading into fall/winter as well. I've read this will make an impact on this year's El Nino.

[Hawkeye]

The biggest rainfall deficits in the entire midwest over the last 30 days are across northern Iowa.  It really has been quite dry this month.  The lawns have lost their vigor.  There have been several decent chances of good rain/storms, but nothing has panned out.  Meanwhile, parts of southern Iowa have an 8-inch positive anomaly.

 

http://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd59/hawkeye_wx/image%203_zps9lw3tgpf.jpg

[james1976]

The biggest rainfall deficits in the entire midwest over the last 30 days are across northern Iowa.  It really has been quite dry this month.  The lawns have lost their vigor.  There have been several decent chances of good rain/storms, but nothing has panned out.  Meanwhile, parts of souther Iowa have an 8-inch positive anomaly.

 

http://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd59/hawkeye_wx/image%203_zps9lw3tgpf.jpg

Yeah with convection you just never know. A few miles can make a big difference.

[Tom]

I can't express how amazing this weather has been this week and will probably last through next week as well.  The best week of Summer hands down.

 

JMA Thursday and the model is showing what most models are indicating.  Week 1 will have tranquil weather over much of the Eastern 2/3 of the nation.  Week 2 the ridge builds out west and the model is seeing a trough near the Lakes which matches up pretty well with the CFSv2.

[Tom]

Here is the Eurosip public model SST's for Oct-Dec...clearly indicating a Modiki El Nino with warm waters hugging the West Coast.  Can you imagine how wild this wx pattern can be in Winter???  Another Split Flow set up with a powerhouse STJ and a NW NAMER ridge to feed the cold air into systems across the Lower 48.  Time will tell how all these players will play on the field together.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/seasonal_charts_sst!sea_surface_temperature!ensemble_mean!3_months!Global!201507!chart.gif

[Tom]

CFSv2 and GFS showing some major August cold for the time of year to open the month of August.  Will be interesting to see if day time highs stay in the upper 60's around here.

[FV-Mike]

Skilling's take on the next couple of weeks

[Tom]

CPC starting to see the cooler pattern...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Geos]

So far nothing past mid 80s in the forecast here.

 

Hit 83° here today with mostly sunny skies all day. Last 4 days just needed the AC on for 2-3 hours late in the day before nightfall. Tomorrow looks hot, but I'm out of here till the 2nd - going to be in the high country around Rocky Mountain National Park!

Sounds like there has been some good lightning shows out that way with the Monsoon kicking in.

[Tom]

I found a nice detailed article on how our forecasted El Nino compares to other Winters in the past...IMO, the key will be how quickly the ENSO 1.2 Region cools as we head into the Fall. CFSv2 and other various models have it cooling quickly over the next 3 months.  See below...

 

Here's the link to the article...

 

http://epawaweather.com/2015/07/24/el-nino-and-the-relationship-to-winter-2015-16/

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/nino12Sea.gif

[Tom]

Managed to hit our 3rd 90F temp of the Summer...lake breeze knocking on my door step.  It's def toasty out there this afternoon.  Bring it!

[Hawkeye]

Picked up 0.85" of rain a bit ago, the first heavy rain in a month.  The browning lawns will certainly like it.

[Niko]

Incredible amounts of sunshine. Day after day of beautiful weather with pop up thunderstorms from time to time. Humidity not a big factor. Awesome, just awesome.

[Tom]

Added another 90F day at ORD bringing the summer total to 4 thus far, might tack on a couple more this week.  Not a bad Summer around these parts so far.  At times it's been active, cool, warm and NO sustained heat waves as was predicted before summer began.  A transient weather pattern similar to last Summer.

[james1976]

1.15" of rain today. Only made it to the low 80s. Low 90s was the forecast.

[Hawkeye]

I got 1.51" of rain yesterday.  The airport, south of the city, got 2.35".  Clouds and rain kept us in the 70s all day, rather than the expected 90.

 

My July rain total ended at 3.88" thanks to a couple heavy rain events the last few days.  The CR airport got 4" just in the last few days, so likely 5+ for the month.  The dryness is gone.

[NEJeremy]

Had quite the rude wakeup early this morning. At about 415, woke up to a storm coming through. This was a huge surprise as there was a 0% chance of rain last night when I went to bed. A strong(should have been severe warned cell) was rolling through Omaha from north to south. At our house there was some small hail but also intense winds and very heavy rain. Looked outside to see a couple of large branches blown into our yard(3" diameter, 6-8 feet long) from our neighbors tree and also several large 4-6 ft pieces of siding sitting in our yard and in the street from another house. Had a flower pot full of soil that probably weighed 40 pounds tipped over. Also neighbor had a much larger branch, est 10" diameter that was broken off of one of their trees. Storm continued moving south right through the older part of town that has lots of large old trees. Ended up with 12k without power and never a warning issued despite all the damage. Winds had to be 60-65 mph.

[james1976]

How did July turn out for temps and precip across the midwest? I believe it was forecasted to be below normal temps and above precip. It seemed like a pretty warm month around here.

[Tom]

How did July turn out for temps and precip across the midwest? I believe it was forecasted to be below normal temps and above precip. It seemed like a pretty warm month around here.

The month started off pretty darn cool and then warmed up over the last 2 weeks.  All in all, it was a cooler than normal month across the lower 48.

[Geos]

-3.03° here for the month of July.