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2015-2016 el Niño Watch/Discussion


Geos

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I thought I would start a discussion on the El Niño topic. It looks to be an important influence on our weather coming up, especially into Autumn.

 

April May June the index was at 0.9.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

If this will become a super El Niño like 1997, one difference this time will be is that solar activity is low. 

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I currently think it will not peak as strong as 97, but it could be close. My best guess is peaking strong but not 'super', so probably 1.5 to 1.9 on the tri-monthlies.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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This thing is going to be pretty strong. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The latest July JAMSTEC run coming in pretty strong, close to Super NINO status, but clearly a central-based Modiki which is very different than '97 when it was warmest in the ENSO 1.2 Region.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1jul2015.gif

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Alot of meteorologists are thinking more of a Modoki el nino.

 

I couldn't remember what that was. Had to look it up.

For anyone wondering...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

 

It will be interesting to see how the moisture feeds into the western area of the continent going forward. Having warm waters over at least part of the equatorial Pacific and the West Coast will complicate predictions I think.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Here are some of the latest forecast maps...looks like a majority of the models are trending lower and averaging out around 2.0C

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Screen-Shot-2015-07-21-at-6.54.47-AM-e1437479818893.png

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Screen-Shot-2015-07-21-at-6.55.22-AM.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think the precip maps for the two strongest el ninos (82-83 & 97-98) showed a tongue of above normal precip up through Iowa, with the dry pocket over in the Ohio Valley.  A few ninos that weren't quite as strong were dry here.  Anything can happen.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A quote from JB.

 

 

 "I like what I am seeing relative to our ideas of another big snow winter for much of the nation, though more in the south and east than in the northern tier of states. But the ECMWF continues to show the major ridge over NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA, NOT SOUTHEAST CANADA. It continues to show the ENSO 3.4 warmer than 1.2 and a much broader warm water pool off the west coast, not being sliced into from the west. The big problem will be California rain as the ECMWF is suggesting alot of dryness central and north. It has lower than normal pressures from the gulf up the east coast and above normal precip through the south and the east. If I were to score it in analog weight, I would have 86-87 first, 09-10 second, 57-58 3rd. a blend of 97-98,82-83,72-73 would come in 4th as one must respect the analog to previous super ninos, but again this has a very different look overall."

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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A quote from JB.

Certainly looking interesting.  I'm really hoping for a lot of systems to target the 4 corners region with an actives STJ.  If the ECMWF is right, and the placement of the blocking high in Central Canada, this could set up a parade of bowling balls systems.  Wonder how much the low solar will effect blocking this season.  I've noticed the AO/NAO have been largely negative this summer.  It will be interesting to see how this year's LRC evolves.

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I wonder how all of this will affect our upcoming winter. Super El Nino winters can play a huge role. Im hoping we can get a few big time snowstorms. I like the lows to come from the 4 corner regions and collect a ton of moisture from the GOM and track just due east of the Detroit Metro area. That kind of track will bury my area. Lets see how it all plays out as we get closer and closer into September with more info.  Fun times ahead folks. I have a good feeling about this winter for the midwest.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We're gonna torch this winter, period. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. The deep south will be in for a wild winter, though.

 

Even if the south gets a wild winter, we're bound to have our wintry weather too. 

 

One thing the winter of 97-98 did not have was low solar activity and the warm northeast Pacific Ocean.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Way to early to determine how this Winter will play out.  The Oceans ultimately rule the planetary weather so focusing in on the NE Pacific waters and the Modiki El Nino will be the key components in our weather this coming Fall/Winter.  So long the ENSO 1.2 region cools and the 3.4 region warms, I'm optimistic of a cooler than normal winter around here.  December may be end up becoming the warmest month relative to average.  The later you get into Winter, especially with El Nino's, the wilder the pattern.  Can't wait to see how the LRC sets up this Fall.

 

Meantime, remember the Super Nino being forecast by the CFS about a month ago???  The trend in the model has cooled the forecast ENSO 3.4 region from its sky high 3.5C temp in the beginning of July (this map below is a 10 day chunk from July 10-19th, I should have saved the prior week)...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

 

Now the latest 10 day chunk forecast is....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

That's roughly a 0.5C drop in less than a month.  Let's see if that trend continues.  The ECMWF has the El Nino peaking around 2.5C which would be a strong El Nino.

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I wonder if an early peak before Christmas would have less of an impact on our winter? That's a pretty steep drop in the index after early October.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I wonder if an early peak before Christmas would have less of an impact on our winter? That's a pretty steep drop in the index after early October.

According to the map above ^, it looks like it peaks in early November...the Pacific really cools next year which is interesting bc that is exactly how fast the Pacific cooled after the '97-'98 NINO.

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Here was the mid-July Plume...quite a bit lower than previous runs...

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Screen-Shot-2015-08-11-at-6.56.44-AM.png

 

Given the current SST departures below, I think the El Nino peaks in the 2.1-2.4 range.  Anything above 2.5C may be far fetched at this point given the trends in the models.

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Screen-Shot-2015-08-11-at-6.53.55-AM-640x434.png

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Region 3.4 predicted to peak in about 6 weeks.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1aug2015.gif

Surprisingly, I just noticed this is the new August run of the JAMSTEC model which is pretty similar to its July forecast.

 

Moving forward, there are some interesting developments on this new run that caught my eye.  Check out last months run for Dec-Feb compared to today's run:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1jul2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1aug2015.gif

 

It still has the trough centered south of the Aleutians, but the waters hugging NW NAMER are much warmer!  The central pacific modiki El Nino is still predicted to be STRONG.  Also, the ENSO 1.2 Region is a little bit cooler as well.  The signals are there for an interesting Fall/Winter.

 

Check out the Autumn months...nice cold pool in the center of the nation...with above normal precip..

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2015.1aug2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2015.1aug2015.gif

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Notice the crash in the ENSO event next Spring/Summer into the following Winter...we may go from a strong El NINO, straight into a weak La NINA!

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1aug2015.gif

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Notice the crash in the ENSO event next Spring/Summer into the following Winter...we may go from a strong El NINO, straight into a weak La NINA!

 

 

That's actually comical the way the forecasts have changed over the last several month. What was once a super El Niño peak, is now; still strong, but briefly and earlier in the year.

Could see a roller coaster of a winter.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's actually comical the way the forecasts have changed over the last several month. What was once a super El Niño peak, is now; still strong, but briefly and earlier in the year.

Could see a roller coaster of a winter.

Sometimes I wonder if the record Antarctic Sea Ice has something to do with it and the models are not taking into account the colder waters to the south.  Either way, we saw this last year and are seeing it again this year.

 

Meantime, the Pacific has reached its highest temps of the year and sits at 3.4F above the average.  It looks like the warmest waters are beginning to shift westward...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CMRLUFOWIAA3fq8.mp4

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Sometimes I wonder if the record Antarctic Sea Ice has something to do with it and the models are not taking into account the colder waters to the south.  Either way, we saw this last year and are seeing it again this year.

 

Meantime, the Pacific has reached its highest temps of the year and sits at 3.4F above the average.  It looks like the warmest waters are beginning to shift westward...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CMRLUFOWIAA3fq8.mp4

 

It will be interesting to watch and see if Regions 1+2 and 3 cool significantly with upwelling off the coast of South Peru and Ecuador. Wonder if there has ever been a case where there has been an organized area of colder than normal water in those regions and an El Niño 3.4 and 4?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like the waters off Peru and Ecuador cooler slightly in the last several days.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Here are the weekly ocean temps since May.  As Geo's alluded to, the ENSO 1.2 Region near Peru is clearly beginning to cool off the west coast of South America.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/sstanim(3).gif

 

Below is the corrected ensemble mean of the CFSv2...

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_shot_2015_08_15_at_10_25_58_AM.png

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Here are the weekly ocean temps since May.  As Geo's alluded to, the ENSO 1.2 Region near Peru is clearly beginning to cool off the west coast of South America.

 

 

Below is the corrected ensemble mean of the CFSv2...

 

Interesting development for sure.

 

I was thinking if you had a substantial warm pool to the west (i.e. Modoki El Niño) and an organized cool pool near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, the effects might cancel each other out - at least for some areas. My guess with a NE warm Pacific, Midwest weather will be near to slightly cooler than normal most of the time. The jet stream will be juiced up to the south.

 

A Modoki wouldn't be good for California, Nevada, and that region.

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I remember last year the ENSO 1.2 Region was warming as we headed out of Summer into the Fall, this year its the complete opposite which may have a different impact as we head into December.  Last December was a torch for pretty much the nation as a whole.  It'll be interesting to see what, if any, warming it has on temps in the central CONUS this season.

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Cooling in the eastern Pacific is notable over the past 4 weeks and warming in the central Pacific..

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_08_21_at_8_35_10_AM.png

 

The formation of the Modiki El NINO going as planned...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/sstaanim(6).gif

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Sure looks like a Modoki El Niño is possible now.

 

That patch of cool waters near the Galapagos Islands sure stands out!

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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