2015-2016 el Niño Watch/Discussion

[Geos]

That's very nice. Are 4 and 3.4 still forecast to climb?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

 

Little more with 4.

 

Little more with 3.4 also.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks!!

[OKwx2k4]

Question, is there any site that has just a raw ocean surface temperature archive with a really long history? Say maybe 1950 or so?

[Tom]

That's very nice. Are 4 and 3.4 still forecast to climb?

Most models have them peaking at 2.5C.

 

Here is the current NINO 3.2 Index value...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Geos]

That warm pool west of Mexico is so substantial looking it almost half the size of the El Niño covered area!

 

[james1976]

On Weather Geeks this morning on TWC they were talking about how strong this is and keep comparing it to 82-83 and 97-98.

[OKwx2k4]

On Weather Geeks this morning on TWC they were talking about how strong this is and keep comparing it to 82-83 and 97-98.

Yeah. I laugh every time I hear those 2 years used as climo for what this winter will be like. Nothing has been similar pretty much anywhere since August but they can beat the dead horse all they want and keep posting the standard nino temperature maps for this winter. Lol. I'll be laughing when they're wrong.

[Maxim]

Yeah. I laugh every time I hear those 2 years used as climo for what this winter will be like. Nothing has been similar pretty much anywhere since August but they can beat the dead horse all they want and keep posting the standard nino temperature maps for this winter. Lol. I'll be laughing when they're wrong.

This nino has a lot more in common with 97-98 than 82-83 IMO. The next couple weeks will tell us a lot about what might happen though.

[Tom]

This nino has a lot more in common with 97-98 than 82-83 IMO. The next couple weeks will tell us a lot about what might happen though.

How so???

SST comparisons October 24th, 1997 vs Current...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.10.24.1997.gif

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.22.2015.gif

 

 

In 1997, ENSO 1.2 Region was torching and main warmth much farther East.  On top of that, it had a lot more colder waters in the N PAC.  Lastly, the overall warmth in the equatorial Pacific was higher back in 1997.  Look at those anamolies...of the charts.  Stark differences TBH.

[OKwx2k4]

Not even remotely close.

[gabel23]

How so???

 

SST comparisons Current vs October 24th, 1997...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.10.24.1997.gif

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.22.2015.gif

 

 

In 1997, ENSO 1.2 Region was torching and main warmth much farther East.  On top of that, it had a lot more colder waters in the N PAC.  Lastly, the overall warmth in the equatorial Pacific was higher back in 1997.  Look at those anamolies...of the charts.  Stark differences TBH.

Well said tom, I can't believe the difference. There are two key points that says we are about to experience something we never had before. One, all El Niños are different....and two there just isn't enough data to compare. I'm excited to see how things play out.

[OKwx2k4]

SST in R1.2 dropping like a rock. Super basin-wide modoki hybrid by December? Makes for a crazy sounding El Niño description huh?

[Tom]

SST in R1.2 dropping like a rock. Super basin-wide modoki hybrid by December? Makes for a crazy sounding El Niño description huh?

Yup, supposed to start tanking according to the Climate models.  You can already see some cold eddy's showing up near the South American coastline.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.26.2015.gif

 

Last 7 days showing the fast cooling...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Also, more importantly, ENSO 3.4 Region may have reached its peaked about a week ago.  It has since dropped off from its 2.5C peak...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Geos]

Was just about to mention that pull back of warmer waters near the continent, Tom.

 

 

Now focused between the Galapagos and IDL.

[Tom]

ENSO 1.2 Region dropping like a rock...this is a good sign to see a colder December.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

 

ENSO 3.4 Region has cooled slightly to 2.2C...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[OKwx2k4]

ENSO 1.2 Region dropping like a rock...this is a good sign to see a colder December.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

 

ENSO 3.4 Region has cooled slightly to just below 2.2C...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Yup. I can hear the sound of people's forecasts busting as we speak. :-)

 

Even mine is looking weaker now. I have December at average temperatures down here. I don't know if we'll even be as warm as average now.

[james1976]

Yup. I can hear the sound of people's forecasts busting as we speak. :-)

 

Even mine is looking weaker now. I have December at average temperatures down here. I don't know if we'll even be as warm as average now.

I wouldn't get that excited about it. I hope you are right, believe me, but I wouldnt get overly excited about a quick little change in SST's. I'm hoping it will continue dropping as well but who knows. Next week it could jump back up.

[OKwx2k4]

I wouldn't get that excited about it. I hope you are right, believe me, but I wouldnt get overly excited about a quick little change in SST's. I'm hoping it will continue dropping as well but who knows. Next week it could jump back up.

Yeah. I probably made a classic "foot in mouth" statement right there. I think I'm suffering from Niño hype fatigue syndrome today. Lol.

[james1976]

Yeah. I probably made a classic "foot in mouth" statement right there. I think I'm suffering from Niño hype fatigue syndrome today. Lol.

Lmao. I think its time for La Nina to form!

Then again, that southern jet might wallop your area pretty good this winter!

[Tom]

I found this chart comparison to previous El Nino's (both strong/moderate) and when comparing all of them, only this year's El Nino will peak earlier rather than later during Winter.  There is no good comparison if you were to use that as an analog.  Again, finding that this year's El Nino is indeed in uncharted territory.

 

 

 

 

 

[Geos]

I found this chart comparison to previous El Nino's (both strong/moderate) and when comparing all of them, only this year's El Nino will peak earlier rather than later during Winter.  There is no good comparison if you were to use that as an analog.  Again, finding that this year's El Nino is indeed in uncharted territory.

 

Nice graph. As it currently looking we will fall short of the 97-98 el Niño and possibly even the 82-83.

[jaster220]

@ Nino graph

 

Not to nit-pick, but shouldn't those dates on the right be 1983 & 1998 respectively since that's what the right half of the graph is, or at least 1982-83, etc.

 

The 2015 for the current yr Nino  up until January looks correct. And, yes, it is a very nice visual aid to see the comparison. Thx

[Tom]

ENSO 3.4 Region has popped to it's highest value yet...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

ENSO 1.2 has also warmed quite a bit...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

 

SST anamolies over the last 7 days show this trend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Tom]

Overall, the Pacific still looks like a basin-wide modiki El NINO...doesn't even compare to 1997

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[OKwx2k4]

Nice. I'm thinking that this is the last push for 1.2. Think we see 3 and 3.4 warm a bit more or hold there.

[Geos]

One thing that I have looked at is the QBO index. In the western Lakes I have found a strong correlation between the best wintry and the positive vs. negative phase of the QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation).

When the index (measurement taken at 30hPa) emerges from being in the deep negative side right before winter starts, the winter are usually a bit harsher or at least snowier than normal. Same goes if the index is positive going into winter. When the index is deep in the negative you tend to get benign winters ~ like 11-12.

 

Right now we're quite positive, in a low solar stage, and with the dominating warm northern Pacific still. So I would go against el Niño ruling the roost on the weather pattern all winter long.

As of October the index is 13.38. October of 2013 it was 11.69 for comparison. October of 2014 it was strongly negative at -23.86 and I think it weren't for the warm northern Pacific the Midwest winter would have been much calmer and milder than it was. Last winter was quite a bit drier in this region, and the negative QBO was partly a factor.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

One thing that I have looked at is the QBO index. In the western Lakes I have found a strong correlation between the best wintry and the positive vs. negative phase of the QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation).

When the index (measurement taken at 30hPa) emerges from being in the deep negative side right before winter starts, the winter are usually a bit harsher or at least snowier than normal. Same goes if the index is positive going into winter. When the index is deep in the negative you tend to get benign winters ~ like 11-12.

 

Right now we're quite positive, in a low solar stage, and with the dominating warm northern Pacific still. So I would go against el Niño ruling the roost on the weather pattern all winter long.

As of October the index is 13.38. October of 2013 it was 11.69 for comparison. October of 2014 it was strongly negative at -23.86 and I think it weren't for the warm northern Pacific the Midwest winter would have been much calmer and milder than it was. Last winter was quite a bit drier in this region, and the negative QBO was partly a factor.

 

qbo_2005-2015.png

This is a part of the equation that I'm struggling to learn about. Definitely could be a viable explanation for why the AO never went negative last year even though SAI said it should have.

[Tom]

ENSO 3.4 Region torching...reaching 2.71C above normal...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

 

Notice where the warmest waters are in the central Pacific.  This looks to me like there will be tremendous upward motion generated by these warm waters and increase convection north of Hawaii down the road where those colder waters are building.  Most global models have the main trough developing in this region.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

Crazy jumps

[Tom]

ENSO 3.4 Region has tied the record of 2.8C...

 

Here is a link to see the SST Anomalies trend...

 

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/SST_Plots/Weekly_Loop.html

[gosaints]

Impressive basin wide torch in the nino.  Also watching some cooling taking place in the northeast pacific.

[Tom]

Trends are still moving the warmest waters into the central equatorial Pacific...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

[jaster220]

ENSO 3.4 Region has tied the record of 2.8C...

 

Here is a link to see the SST Anomalies trend...

 

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/SST_Plots/Weekly_Loop.html

 

EDIT! @ Tom - beat me to it - ha!

 

Focus of greatest departures have been migrating westward as you watch that time-loop over the last several months. I've posted before that I'm not aware of any Big Dog storms occurring for our region (Chicago and S. Lakes) during a "strong" nino. Could this be the year when we see one?

[westMJim]

EDIT! @ Tom - beat me to it - ha!

 

Focus of greatest departures have been migrating westward as you watch that time-loop over the last several months. I've posted before that I'm not aware of any Big Dog storms occurring for our region (Chicago and S. Lakes) during a "strong" nino. Could this be the year when we see one?

The biggest non Lake effect event I can find for the strong Nino years was on February 26th 1966 when 17.9" of snow fell in the Bay City/Saginaw area and just under a foot in Detroit. There were also storms (non lake effect) of over 6" in December of 1965, March of 1998. In the past it looks like the chance for a storm came later in the winter vs early winter  

[jaster220]

The biggest non Lake effect event I can find for the strong Nino years was on February 26th 1966 when 17.9" of snow fell in the Bay City/Saginaw area and just under a foot in Detroit. There were also storms (non lake effect) of over 6" in December of 1965, March of 1998. In the past it looks like the chance for a storm came later in the winter vs early winter  

 

Nice find, and you're 100% correct about the chances being the best in late winter, heck even early calendar spring. Was late March of '83 when Flint had a solid 10" storm. I was there. Also caught the March of '98 bliz when I was living in Michiana. What I really meant to say is that if you take a look at the TOP 5 (or maybe even 10) storms of all time for Chicago and/or SMI, you won't find any that I am aware of during a strong nino. That's what I meant by Big Dog.

 

Having said that, bliz of '99, '78, & '67 all occurred with a +QBO which we have this year, so we got that going in our favor. Still looking for that "area wide" 30 inch storm - LOL  (but even a large coverage area 24+ event would be amazing. Jan '78 came the closest and due to a really nice existing base had the effects of a storm of that magnitude (24-30") across much of SMI.

 

Just see this video. The best I know of that gives one a proper perspective of the event's magnitude:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuAMWRtT4NY

[westMJim]

I have a update on big strong El Nino years. Above I mentioned the Feb 25th storm but left out the March 17 1973 storm when 21.3" fell in the Bay City/Saginaw area.

[gosaints]

EDIT! @ Tom - beat me to it - ha!

 

Focus of greatest departures have been migrating westward as you watch that time-loop over the last several months. I've posted before that I'm not aware of any Big Dog storms occurring for our region (Chicago and S. Lakes) during a "strong" nino. Could this be the year when we see one?

We are pretending that nino 1.2 arent torching as well.. Second warmest october ever in that region?

[Tom]

We are pretending that nino 1.2 arent torching as well.. Second warmest october ever in that region?

More importantly, it's central based rather than east-based.  Bigger implications as far as where the energy will be released into the atmosphere.

[gosaints]

1.2 is gonna rise

[Tom]

1.2 is gonna rise

It's not what your Go-to CFSv2 is forecasting and every other global model...just saying...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif