August 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Does it seem like this Summer is flying by way to fast???  I can't believe we are already at the end of July and fast approaching the last month of meteorological Summer.

Taking a look at the latest CFSv2 model temp forecast for the month of August, it has a large area of the country below normal.  Surprisingly, this is the time of year the jet is at it's weakest point which would promote ridging.  Might not be the case this year.  Looks like the West gets some appreciable rains out of this pattern and probably some tropical systems to effect that region.  Monsoonal rains should be welcome out that way.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150726.201508.gif

[Tom]

Sick of the Heat???  CFSv2 ushering down some chilly air at a time of the year when the hottest temps of Summer should be boiling.  A/C units will have a break.

 

GFS/EURO Ensembles are all in agreement as well...

[james1976]

GFS is showing the cooldown. Looks a little 'troughy' toward the end of the run.

[Tom]

D**n, 00z Euro painting upper 60 high temps in the Northwoods towards the end of the run and even some 50's in the U.P.!  Taste of Autumn???  We'll see if it holds.

[james1976]

Seems like all the major models are showing the cooldown.

[Tom]

Seems like all the major models are showing the cooldown.

12z GFS showing early/mid October temps for a large part of the region!  I could only see that happening if there is a lot of cloud cover/showery weather.

[GDR]

Looks like NOAA's is calling for a warmer and drier winter in the region.

[james1976]

Looks like NOAA's is calling for a warmer and drier winter in the region.

Yup, I think everyone is expecting that with the El Nino strengthening.

[Yerf]

more information for Illinois and this upcoming August

 

https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2015/07/16/cool-and-wet-forecast-for-august-in-illinois/

[Tom]

Interesting comments made by Gary Lezak in today's blog...

 

 

 

The weather pattern continues to cycle in the 45 to 50 day range. Yesterday we showcased the pattern from June and now at 49 days apart. The jet stream is now at it’s weakest average strength and weakest average north position. In the next two weeks the jet stream will begin it’s slow strengthening as the overall pattern begins to change. Yes, the new LRC will begin evolving soon, but the old pattern continues to dominate deep into September. As these changes begin to take place we will begin looking for our first fall cold front. I think that a hint of one will happen late in August. Between now and then it’s summer time!

 

Taking a look at the last few runs of the CFSv2 model, it's hinting at a very strong cold front from late Aug into early Sept....

[james1976]

Thats a lot of below normal temps! I'm looking forward to it.

[Tom]

Thats a lot of below normal temps! I'm looking forward to it.

July might be the only month left where we have the last of the 90's for the summer.  Doesn't look like any real significant chances of ridging to develop in August, at least in our region.

[Tom]

Arctic temps seem to be heading south after peaking about 1-2 weeks ago.  I've noticed that the CFSv2 is showing below normal temps in August in the Arctic regions as well as Siberia.  Might this be a trend over the next several months?  Would be a good sign to build up that reservoir of cold air quicker than normal.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

[james1976]

12z GFS not showing much of a cool down now for the beginning of August.

[Tom]

12z GFS not showing much of a cool down now for the beginning of August.

Not the 12z Euro, it has upper 70's Mon-Wed, then low/mid 70's for highs the rest of the week...even pockets of 60's Wed/Thu where clouds/showers occur.  This coming cool down will feel real nice.

[Tom]

Arctic Sea Ice near the top of the pack since 2006, still ahead of last year's Sea Ice Extent.  Based on model guidance, temps are to decline over the next several weeks and slow the melting process in the Arctic.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/images/sea_ice_only.jpg

 

Here's the latest Snow/Ice coverage...surprised to see Hudson Bay nearly 40% Ice covered.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

It will be interesting to see how much ice and snow coverage there will be as we approach October.  If the Arctic can continue to cool over the next couple months and maintain or even expand its coverage as we head into the Fall, once that Ridge builds over the Arctic in the Winter it can have a big impact on our weather downstream.  Something I'll pay attn to down the road.

[james1976]

Not the 12z Euro, it has upper 70's Mon-Wed, then low/mid 70's for highs the rest of the week...even pockets of 60's Wed/Thu where clouds/showers occur.  This coming cool down will feel real nice.

Im glad the Euro is staying the course. Im looking forward to a cool down. Once August hits I start getting that Fall feeling. It's right around the corner.

[Tom]

GFS/EURO now coming into an agreement with next weeks cool down.  Wouldn't be surprised to see some high temps in the 60's lakeside.  Def going to be nice to crack open the window and have some good sleeping weather.

 

This coming cool down was predictable if you followed the LRC.  Saw this post on Gary's blog today.  Here's a snapshot from the GFS model for next week during Cycle 7...

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/LRC-Cycle-7-August-5-GFS-e1438262628651.jpg

 

 

Now here is the LRC's Cycle #1 way back in October...do you see the similarities???  Obviously the amplitude is much higher in the Fall as the jet is stronger, but you can notice the common features on both maps.  I remember the Halloween cold front last year quite well when Lake Michigan was spilling over onto Lake Shore Drive.

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/LRC-Cycle-1-October-31-640x480.jpg

[Tom]

JMA weeklies are showing the cool down over the Eastern CONUS Week 1 & 2...

[Tom]

12z Euro painting an early Autumn-like weather pattern from the 5th-9th and a dose of what some of I've have been waiting for.  Great bon fire weather for sure.  

[james1976]

12z Euro painting an early Autumn-like weather pattern from the 5th-9th and a dose of what some of I've have been waiting for.  Great bon fire weather for sure.  

What is it showing for highs? Just looked at 12z GFS. Looking pretty comfortable next week into next weekend. Great bonfire weather for sure.

[Tom]

What is it showing for highs? Just looked at 12z GFS. Looking pretty comfortable next week into next weekend. Great bonfire weather for sure.

It actually shows some days with pockets of upper 60's for highs from NE to MI on a few days from Wed-Sun.  Overall, mainly highs in the low/high 70's, nights in the 50's.

[james1976]

It actually shows some days with pockets of upper 60's for highs from NE to MI on a few days from Wed-Sun.  Overall, mainly highs in the low/high 70's, nights in the 50's.

Nice. Im looking forward to it!

[Tom]

It's been dry and very warm around here over the last 2 weeks.  We have enjoyed a streak of 15 days and counting of 80F+ temps!  The LRC's warm phase certainly showed up during this cycle.

 

Hopefully we get some active storms later tonight and tomorrow...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png

[Tom]

Nasty cell heading right over Geo's place sparking a Tornado warning!

 

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
ILC097-030230-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0032.150803T0145Z-150803T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
845 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 844 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER THIRD LAKE...OR OVER GAGES LAKE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GURNEE AROUND 850 PM CDT.
WAUKEGAN...NORTH CHICAGO...BEACH PARK AND PARK CITY AROUND 855 PM
CDT.

[Geos]

Just got back from Colorado and I come home to severe weather! 

What a change from 60s and 70s during the day and 30s at night.

 

Chicago Storm (Joe) at AMwx took this photo of the tornado over Lake County a little while ago. 

 

 

[Tom]

Just got back from Colorado and I come home to severe weather! 

What a change from 60s and 70s during the day and 30s at night.

 

Chicago Storm (Joe) at AMwx took this photo of the tornado over Lake County a little while ago. 

 

 

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/08/02/4b3a90529bf97152de06792f17c5464f.jpg

Welcome back!  I'm enjoying the vivid light show nature is producing from that  line of severe storms just to the north.  These cells must be packing quite the punch out by you.  I haven't seen a light show like this in years.  Very breezy out there this evening.

[Geos]

Hearing that there was some minor tornado damage in Grayslake tonight. Don't know much else.

 

0.90" of rain here. Winds probably hit 40mph at the height of the storm.

[Tom]

Saw these maps posted on Wx Bell this morning.  It's the SST Analog forecast from N-J showing a monster GOA trough which should pump the NW NAMER Ridge.  I like what I'm seeing in terms of a SW/NE orientated trough originating near the 4 corners and heading NE.  With a strong El Nino in place, I can see the STJ becoming very active this Fall/Winter.  Keep in mind that these maps only go out till January.

 

Also, notice how cold Eurasia is which is correlating pretty well with the CFS and catching onto a snowy/cold October in that part of the world.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cahgt_anom_3(6).gif

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cat2m_anom_3(4).gif

[Tom]

CFS maintaining a cool pool in the central states through October...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd1.gif

[Tom]

August still looking pretty cool for a large part of the CONUS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd1.gif

[james1976]

Hopefully these maps will be like this for the upcoming winter.

[Yerf]

CFS maintaining a cool pool in the central states through October...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd1.gif

Thanks Tom! Really interesting to see

[Tom]

It's going to be close, but it looks like our streak of 80's may continue well into August now.  Both the GFS/EURO didn't do well with the cool down they were predicting about a week ago for this week.  Hey, I don't mind at all.  Low 80's with low humidity is primo in my book.

[Tom]

Precip over the last 30 days....N MO/S IA in the bullseye...IL dried out from the torrential rains back in June.

 

 

[james1976]

Yeah i saw they have been raising the temps this week and weekend into the low 80s now.

[Tom]

Typhoon Rule coming into play in the 6-10 day & 8-14 day.  Super Typhoon Soudelor churning in the W PAC is expected to head due west and hit mainland China which should promote ridging across the region.  Yesterday sustained winds topped out at 180mph!  Insane...

 

This was yesterday's infared satellite imagery...

 

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/f5165edfa19bcf273643df7b3770f5690bca06dd/r=x404&c=534x401/http/cdn.tegna-tv.com/-mm-/9902e24b3ce22452871a78d74d7f00970fb66eca/c=0-0-533-401/local/-/media/2015/08/04/WTSP/WTSP/635742626966147557-635742192757529008-SoudelorThumb.jpg

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[james1976]

I thought the typhoon rule usually meant a trough for the midwest-east.

[Tom]

I thought the typhoon rule usually meant a trough for the midwest-east.

Not if it doesn't re-curve towards Japan (that's what you need for a trough to form in the Eastern CONUS).  If it heads west, it promotes ridging.

[james1976]

I didnt know that. Thanks. 

I was mowing the lawn this evening and someone in the neighborhood was burning wood. Made me think of Fall!