August 2015 Observations and Discussions

[james1976]

 

 

James, I bet the low 60's and cloudiness is a shock to your system!  Get out there and make a bonfire tonight!

 

 

I did last night! It was perfect weather for it.

[james1976]

The system coming in later today is expected to go negative tilt. This will be the 2nd system in a row to do so.
http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html

[james1976]

Been reading some stuff about the El Nino and all these meteorologists keep talking about it getting stronger and may become a record breaking El Nino. But the maps you guys post in here show it leveling off. Gonna be fun to watch as we evolve into Fall.

[Tom]

The LRC's cold phase is showing up not only in our region, but in southern Canada near Calgary where there was some Summer time SNOW!  This shot was about 50 mi north of the U.S./Canada border in Alberta...snow was also flying in Calgary...

 

 

I"m very impressed to see how cool it will be getting in the northern Plains/Northwoods this time of year when the jet has reached its weakest point.

[james1976]

The LRC's cold phase is showing up not only in our region, but in southern Canada near Calgary where there was some Summer time SNOW!  This shot was about 50 mi north of the U.S./Canada border in Alberta...snow was also flying in Calgary...

 

 

I"m very impressed to see how cool it will be getting in the northern Plains/Northwoods this time of year when the jet has reached its weakest point.

I assume thats the cold shot heading this way over the next few days. They have been lowering forecasted temps here for the last few days. Now they are saying around 70 and lows in upper 40s.

[Geos]

Wow, snow near Calgary in August is pretty impressive!

 

You can really feel the effect of the colder water that upwelled along this coastline. 60s within a few miles of the lake today on the northshore. About 74-75° right now 4 miles inland.

[Tom]

Arctic temps have dipped below freezing as we begin to turn the corner in the northern latitudes.  Shorter days and longer nights begin the slow process of building the core of cold air near the Pole.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

[james1976]

A line of strong storms about ready to invade my backyard. Cold front behind that. This is part of another strong system affecting the midwest and northern plains.

[Geos]

Today was an awesome day! Dry with dewpoints in the 50s all day, high of 75°.

 

Looking like rain will arrive by early morning here. Hopefully won't be a total washout... I would like to finish an outdoor project tomorrow.

[Geos]

Feels like a September day again. 0.05" of rain this morning with a little humidity cleared out quickly after 11am. Now gusty West winds are blowing with falling dewpoints and full sun for the time being.

[Tom]

Time to go lay out and soak up some sun!  Love these type of summer days.

 

We should see some more upwelling on the western shores of Lake Michigan today/tomorrow.  Wonder how cool the waters will get over the next day or two.  Water temps taking a dive just north of MKE up towards Sheboygan...

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

[Geos]

Closer plot of water temperatures.

 

 

 

I bet the water temperatures dip into the 40s after today and tomorrow's west winds! Then on Wednesday or Thursday winds are supposed to shift onshore, so it should be pretty refreshing!

[Tom]

12z Euro trying to pump a couple days of 90's into the region next Sun/Mon.  Both GFS/Euro Ensembles are agreeing that a big ridge develops as we head into the first part of September.

 

It's been very chilly in the Plains over the past 7 days...and somewhat cool over the central CONUS...

[Tom]

For those who care to see...

 

[Tom]

Saw this Tweet from JB...Brazilian model seeing many snow events and looks similar to what 2013-14season looked like...

 

[Geos]

For those who care to see...

 

 

Looks like the winter of 2013-2014 all over again!

[james1976]

13-14 winter would be epic. that was the best one ever.

[james1976]

Its funny how the Farmer's Almanac is showing completely opposite of what most other winter outlooks are showing.

[Tom]

Haven't slept that good in a long time last night with the window cracked a bit.  My grid forecast keeps lowering temps for tomorrow and Wednesday.  Might not crack 70F tomorrow...darn cool for August standards.  Forgot how cool 60's feel during the day!

[Geos]

63°/46° currently here. Feels like Colorado again. Although it was very this cloudy there.

 

I know one thing, this is not your typical August sky.

 

[james1976]

Already down to mid 50s here. Might get down to mid 40s by morning! I believe the record low is 39.

[Tom]

Chicago has experienced very warm and cool periods this summer.  Rather peculiar we are only about 1F below normal for the season...

 

 

 

Not expecting to get out of the upper 60's today if the heavy overcast sticks around.  Tomorrow will be another cool day before temps bounce back into upper 70's/low 80's.

[Geos]

A bigger departure up this way for sure.

Lake temps crashed like we all thought.

 

[Tom]

A bigger departure up this way for sure.

Lake temps crashed like we all thought.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

I heard from a friend of mine that Kings and Soho Salmon fishing is lighting up now near Waukegan.  Time to go head out on Lake Michigan and fill up the fridge!

[Geos]

SE/E winds forecast Wednesday night through Friday, so it will be cooler near the lake for sure.

Only topping out right now at 64°.

[Geos]

Chicago has experienced very warm and cool periods this summer.  Rather peculiar we are only about 1F below normal for the season...

 

 

 

Not expecting to get out of the upper 60's today if the heavy overcast sticks around.  Tomorrow will be another cool day before temps bounce back into upper 70's/low 80's.

 

 

In contrast here there has been 30 80° days, but only seven 80°+ highs in a row. And only one 90° high. I might as well be a couple hundred miles north of ORD! lol

Departure here is -1.99° for the summer so far.

[Tom]

The August's run of the NNME has a real wet look for Sept-Nov...

 

 

Temps cool in the Plains & South...near normal in the Midwest...

[james1976]

Ive never heard of the NMME model. Precip looks nice on that.

[Tom]

The CFS model I follow is now in the mid November range...can you say "Hello Winter?"....LOL

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/26/basis00/namk/tmax/15111900_2600.gif

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/26/basis00/namk/weas/15111900_2600.gif

 

Notice the wavy Jet Stream pattern that we have been all to familiar with the last 2 winters.  A nice Aleutian Low has been showing up consistently in Oct/Nov...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/26/basis00/namk/tpps/15111700_2600.gif

[Tom]

A pocket of +5C waters developing in the NE PAC waters...

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.8.24.2015.gif

[james1976]

Nice! Hasnt that CFS model been showing this for November for the last couple runs now?

[james1976]

A pocket of +5C waters developing in the NE PAC waters...

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.8.24.2015.gif

We want the NE PAC to be warm, correct?

[Tom]

Nice! Hasnt that CFS model been showing this for November for the last couple runs now?

I'd say around 60% of the time its been showing some real cold runs as we head into November, actually, it starts around the end of October.

 

 

We want the NE PAC to be warm, correct?

Definitely, if you want the jet stream to buckle and unleash rounds of cold air into the lower 48.  I'd like the heart of the warmest waters to stay put right where they are now.  This would move the body of the coldest air farther west in the lower 48 like we had it in 2013-14.

[james1976]

I'd say around 60% of the time its been showing some real cold runs as we head into November, actually, it starts around the end of October.

 

 

Definitely, if you want the jet stream to buckle and unleash rounds of cold air into the lower 48.  I'd like the heart of the warmest waters to stay put right where they are now.  This would move the body of the coldest air farther west in the lower 48 like we had it in 2013-14.

2013-14 Winter was epic!

[Geos]

Clouds all day today. Only has been up to 64°. 

 

 

Water temps barely cracking 70° on the eastern shoreline now.

 

[Tom]

While we bake, Alaska and the NW Territories get their fair share of early season snowfall...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082618/gfs_asnow_ak_41.png

[Tom]

Only made it up to 67F at ORD yesterday which is 14F below normal...felt like an early October day with the heavy overcast all day long.  A good amount of upper 40's this morning in the outlying suburbs of Chicago.

 

The sky's have the potential for smoke in the air from the Fires on the West Coast...should have some nice sunsets.

 

Looking forward to this nice stretch of weather that is in the forecast.  Wonder how much effect the dry ground will have on warming?

[Geos]

First 40s of the season this morning. Low of 48°.

 

Big wet pattern about to hit the Northwest tomorrow. Should see a lot of the Washington and Oregon fires diminish.

[Yerf]

Really needed out west. Midwest starting to dry out to.

[james1976]

Nice 2.59" bullseye right on me.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif?1440702458469