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February 2014, non-sun angle affected, Arctic forecast contest

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#1
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2014 - 01:09 PM

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Welcome Vortex enthusiasts!

 

PDX/SEA

 

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

 

Highs and Lows.  

 

Entries must be postmarked by 11:59 p.m. Super Bowl Sunday.  (that's tomorrow, Jesse)  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2
BLI snowman

Posted 01 February 2014 - 01:20 PM

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PDX

 

2/4: 37/29

2/5: 32/24

2/6: 28/17

2/7: 29/15

2/8: 31/20 with 5" of snow

 

SEA

 

2/4: 35/28

2/5: 32/23

2/6: 30/19

2/7: 32/18

2/8: 34/20 with 3" of snow 



#3
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2014 - 01:28 PM

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PDX-

 

39/28

33/23

30/18

31/16

32/25 precipitation???

 

SEA-

 

Slightly warmer.


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#4
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2014 - 02:06 PM

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So far 18z not as cold. Looks to be sliding east a bit.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#5
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2014 - 02:21 PM

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still gets plenty cold.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#6
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2014 - 02:30 PM

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I will be the first to admit a dummy move. I didn't know I was in this thread.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#7
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2014 - 10:00 PM

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PDX

2/4: 41/27

2/5: 37/24

2/6: 32/21

2/7: 34/15

2/8: 31/23  (4" of snow)

 

SEA

2/4: 37/26

2/5: 36/23

2/6: 35/21

2/7: 34/20

2/8: 33/26  (4" of snow)



#8
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 February 2014 - 10:36 PM

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PDX

2/4: 40/26

2/5: 38/24

2/6: 31/17

2/7: 30/17

2/8: 33/20  5 inches of snow

 

SEA

2/4: 37/24

2/5: 34/20

2/6: 31/18

2/7: 32/21

2/8: 34/25  7 inches of snow



#9
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2014 - 10:57 PM

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PDX

 

Tuesday: 37/27

Wednesday: 33/22

Thursday:29/17

Friday: 30/13

Saturday: 35/24

 

SEA

 

Tuesday: 36/29

Wednesday: 33/24

Thursday: 32/20

Friday: 32/23

Saturday:33/25



#10
snow_wizard

Posted 01 February 2014 - 11:50 PM

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PDX
2/4: 41/27
2/5: 37/24
2/6: 32/21
2/7: 34/15
2/8: 31/23  (4" of snow)
 
SEA
2/4: 37/26
2/5: 36/23
2/6: 35/21
2/7: 34/20
2/8: 33/26  (4" of snow)


I will be absolutely shocked if SEA doesn't have at least one high below freezing in spite of the horrible warm bias they have developed.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#11
snow_wizard

Posted 01 February 2014 - 11:56 PM

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Sun angle isn't that big of a deal in early Feb. I will admit it is more of a factor after the 15th or so.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#12
Brennan

Posted 02 February 2014 - 07:51 AM

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BLI:

Tue: 99-19
Wed: 50-2
Thu: 212-122

Fri: 68-86
Sat: 33-33 (Like, lots of snow in Eugene)  :D 
Sun: 1-0 (Like, some more snow in Eugene.)  :blink:



#13
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:40 AM

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Updated:

 

PDX

2/4: 42/28

2/5: 36/23

2/6: 34/20

2/7: 36/19

2/8: 40/21  (increasing clouds with flurries by evening)

 

SEA

2/4: 36/26

2/5: 35/22

2/6: 33/20

2/7: 34/18

2/8: 39/23  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening) 



#14
BLI snowman

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:53 AM

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Updated:

 

PDX

2/4: 42/28

2/5: 36/23

2/6: 34/20

2/7: 36/19

2/8: 40/21  (increasing clouds with flurries by evening)

 

SEA

2/4: 36/26

2/5: 35/22

2/6: 33/20

2/7: 34/18

2/8: 39/23  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening) 

 

 

This is just dumb, dude.

 

Highs above freezing, especially at outflow afflicted PDX, isn't going to happen with an airmass this cold. Outflow prone locations are going to have 40-50mph wind gusts in the day on Wednesday. The daytime highs won't peak above 30. 



#15
Deweydog

Posted 02 February 2014 - 12:25 PM

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PDX-

 

38/27

31/23

29/20

30/18

32/26 precipitation???

 

SEA-

 

Slightly warmer.

 

Set and forget it!


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#16
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2014 - 02:08 PM

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This is just dumb, dude.

 

Highs above freezing, especially at outflow afflicted PDX, isn't going to happen with an airmass this cold. Outflow prone locations are going to have 40-50mph wind gusts in the day on Wednesday. The daytime highs won't peak above 30. 

 

 

Whatever... let it roll.     We will see how close I am.

 

I still can change it before midnight.



#17
snow_wizard

Posted 02 February 2014 - 05:25 PM

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BLI:

Tue: 29-19
Wed: 27-14
Thu: 26-12
Fri: 28-14
Sat: 30-22 (Like, lots of snow)
Sun: 32-28 (Like, some more snow.)


Too warm.

I'm thinking the Fraser outflow winds will be blowing at about 10 degrees at the coldest point. It will be much more impressive than the December event up there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#18
FroYoBro

Posted 02 February 2014 - 08:36 PM

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PDX

 

Tuesday: 37/27

Wednesday: 33/22

Thursday:29/17

Friday: 30/13

Saturday: 35/24

 

SEA

 

Tuesday: 36/29

Wednesday: 33/24

Thursday: 32/20

Friday: 32/23

Saturday:33/25

Updated it with my final guess.



#19
BLI snowman

Posted 02 February 2014 - 08:51 PM

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Final guess:

 

PDX

 

2/4: 40/25

2/5: 29/18

2/6: 31/15

2/7: 34/14

2/8: 34/25 with 2" of snow

 

SEA

 

2/4: 37/24

2/5: 31/18

2/6: 33/17

2/7: 36/19

2/8: 37/26 with 2" of snow



#20
snow_wizard

Posted 02 February 2014 - 09:54 PM

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Final guess:

 

PDX

 

2/4: 40/25

2/5: 29/18

2/6: 31/15

2/7: 34/14

2/8: 34/25 with 2" of snow

 

SEA

 

2/4: 37/24

2/5: 31/18

2/6: 33/17

2/7: 36/19

2/8: 37/26 with 2" of snow

 

You should do BLI also.  The WRF shows Fraser outflow winds blowing at about 14 degrees at the coldest point.  That is pretty serious cold, although it has blown colder in the past.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#21
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2014 - 10:05 PM

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FINAL BABY!     Wait until Saturday to rip on me.   

 

PDX

2/4: 41/27

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/19

2/7: 38/20

2/8: 40/21  (increasing clouds with light snow by evening)

 

SEA

2/4: 37/25

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/20

2/7: 35/19

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening) 



#22
Jesse

Posted 02 February 2014 - 10:59 PM

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FINAL BABY!     Wait until Saturday to rip on me.   

 

PDX

2/4: 41/27

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/19

2/7: 38/20

2/8: 40/21  (increasing clouds with light snow by evening)

 

SEA

2/4: 37/25

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/20

2/7: 35/19

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening) 

 

 

What made you go so ridiculously warm?



#23
Jesse

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:03 PM

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PDX:

 

Tue- 39/25

Wed- 30/21

Thu- 28/18

Fri- 32/14

Sat-31/19 (snow late)

 

SEA: Downright summerlike at Tim's house. He will be BBQing and the kiddie pool will be out.

 

Stevenson:

 

Tue-35/24

Wed-27/19

Thu-24/17

Fri-26/16

Sat-28/18 (snow late)



#24
BLI snowman

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:36 PM

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You should do BLI also.  The WRF shows Fraser outflow winds blowing at about 14 degrees at the coldest point.  That is pretty serious cold, although it has blown colder in the past.

 

 

BLI:

 

2/4: 28/22

2/5: 27/17

2/6: 31/15

2/7: 34/14

2/8: 36/20 with 1" of snow (more on 2/9) 



#25
BLI snowman

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:42 PM

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FINAL BABY!     Wait until Saturday to rip on me.   

 

PDX

2/4: 41/27

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/19

2/7: 38/20

2/8: 40/21  (increasing clouds with light snow by evening)

 

SEA

2/4: 37/25

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/20

2/7: 35/19

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening) 

 

 

Portland's not going to be warmer than Seattle with this. Look at an east wind map. 



#26
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:51 PM

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What made you go so ridiculously warm?

 

 

All MOS guidance.   Just to put it to the test.   :)



#27
bainbridgekid

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:52 PM

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PDX

 

2/4: 40/28

2/5: 31/20

2/6: 29/18

2/7: 33/19

2/8: 34/25

 

SEA

 

2/4: 38/26

2/5: 31/21

2/6: 33/18

2/7: 35/19

2/8: 37/27


2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#28
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:53 PM

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Portland's not going to be warmer than Seattle with this. Look at an east wind map. 

 

 

Yeah... don't follow PDX too much so I might be off there.    GFS MOS does well for Seattle.    The east wind is a wild card... does it keep the temp up?    



#29
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:57 PM

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Side note... the high today at SEA was 48 which was 4 degrees warmer than the MOS guidance said it would be today.   



#30
BLI snowman

Posted 03 February 2014 - 12:33 AM

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Yeah... don't follow PDX too much so I might be off there.    GFS MOS does well for Seattle.    The east wind is a wild card... does it keep the temp up?    

 

Seriously?



#31
Deweydog

Posted 04 February 2014 - 10:29 PM

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Tuesday winds up...

 

PDX: 37/25

 

SEA: 37/28


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#32
BLI snowman

Posted 04 February 2014 - 10:52 PM

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Tuesday winds up...

 

PDX: 37/25

 

SEA: 39/26

 

37 at SEA.



#33
Deweydog

Posted 04 February 2014 - 10:54 PM

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37 at SEA.

 

That was stupid.  I looked at Boeing Field.  

 

Brings up a good question... How did Boeing Field spike two degrees warmer given the SeaTac sensor issues I've heard so much about?


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#34
Karl Bonner

Posted 06 February 2014 - 12:15 AM

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Yaaaay!  I never thought that sun angle would be a trolling weapon in a weather forum!!!  :P



#35
Deweydog

Posted 06 February 2014 - 12:39 AM

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Yaaaay!  I never thought that sun angle would be a trolling weapon in a weather forum!!!  :P

 

You must not visit many weather forums.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#36
Deweydog

Posted 06 February 2014 - 12:47 AM

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Wednesday:

 

PDX: 29/21

SEA: 31/22

 

Brrrrrrr!!!


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#37
TT-SEA

Posted 06 February 2014 - 01:29 PM

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Wednesday:

 

PDX: 29/21

SEA: 31/22

 

Brrrrrrr!!!

 

 

Yeah... nobody had blizzard conditions in Portland for Thursday.    Total bust!

 

This one turned out completely impossible to forecast.    



#38
Jesse

Posted 06 February 2014 - 02:39 PM

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Yeah... nobody had blizzard conditions in Portland for Thursday.    Total bust!

 

This one turned out completely impossible to forecast.    

 

Everyone will still be WAY closer with temps than you, though. :)



#39
TT-SEA

Posted 06 February 2014 - 02:55 PM

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Everyone will still be WAY closer with temps than you, though. :)

 

Nobody saw this playing out like it did.    Cold biases ruled though given how it has gone so far.   :)



#40
Jesse

Posted 06 February 2014 - 03:05 PM

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Nobody saw this playing out like it did.    Cold biases ruled though given how it has gone so far.   :)

 

You suck at forecasting, and your forecast was a joke, and a poor attempt at trolling. :)



#41
TT-SEA

Posted 06 February 2014 - 03:28 PM

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You suck at forecasting, and your forecast was a joke, and a poor attempt at trolling. :)

 

Thanks again Jesse.

 

I told you precisely what I did using the GFS MOS extended forecast... and then the GFS MOS changed.

 

Glad to see you love attacking me though for no reason.    You have blown many of these forecast contests as well.   This seems so hollow and petty for you to act like this in the middle of a big event.   One that we did not even know was coming until yesterday.



#42
Skagit Weather

Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:57 AM

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So... Who won?


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"| 2016-17: 8.0" | 2017-18: 0.9"

2018-19: 11"

[0.25" (2/3), 2.75" (2/4), 2.5" (2/8), 1.25" (2/10), 4" (2/11), 0.25" (2/11)]


#43
Brennan

Posted 09 February 2014 - 12:19 PM

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So... Who won?

Who knows. The temperatures were impossible to predict, especially given that when we made the forecasts nobody had a clue that it’d snow all day thursday and friday in Western Oregon and that everything would end up south.. When the forecasts were due, most models showed Bellingham actually being in a great spot for overrunning snow. Hah, that worked out well!

 

I’m sure whoever predicted on the colder side of things for Portland did best. We underperformed up here to say the least. 



#44
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2014 - 12:24 PM

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So... Who won?

 

Kevin Martin. 


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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#45
chinook

Posted 09 February 2014 - 06:03 PM

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Kevin Martin Johnny Depp


Fixt.

#46
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2014 - 06:17 PM

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Fixt.

 

I still think he looks exactly like one of the Backstreet Boys, but it's been forever since I've seen a picture.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#47
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 09 February 2014 - 07:42 PM

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I still think he looks exactly like one of the Backstreet Boys, but it's been forever since I've seen a picture.  

:mellow:


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#48
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 04:33 AM

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SEA

2/4: 37/25

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/20

2/7: 35/19

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening) 

 

 

Dog was barking... can't sleep now.   Thought doing math might help.

 

Not going to even look at PDX since nobody was expecting so much snow down there.    Obviously that changed everything.    

 

But for SEA its interesting to compare since I was also told that I was ridiculously wrong from SEA.

 

Here is what really happened:

2/4: 37-28
2/5: 31-22
2/6: 29-21
2/7: 38-23
2/8: 42-31

 

And my forecast departures:

 

2/4: 37/25    (1.5)

2/5: 36/22    +2.5

2/6: 34/20    +2.0

2/7: 35/19    (-3.5)

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening)   (5.5)

 

The average temperature at SEA for 2/4-2/8 period was 30.2 degrees.

 

The average temperature per my forecast above was 29.0 degrees.

 

The actual temperature at SEA was 1.2 degrees WARMER THAN MY FORECAST.    :lol: 

 

 

I was too cold on 3 out 5 days

I was too warm on 2 out 5 days

 

And there was increasing clouds with light snow by evening on Saturday.

 

Once again my cold bias shows... I need to adjust my forecasts upward in the future.   



#49
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:36 AM

Jesse

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Dog was barking... can't sleep now.   Thought doing math might help.

 

Not going to even look at PDX since nobody was expecting so much snow down there.    Obviously that changed everything.    

 

But for SEA its interesting to compare since I was also told that I was ridiculously wrong from SEA.

 

Here is what really happened:

2/4: 37-28
2/5: 31-22
2/6: 29-21
2/7: 38-23
2/8: 42-31

 

And my forecast departures:

 

2/4: 37/25    (1.5)

2/5: 36/22    +2.5

2/6: 34/20    +2.0

2/7: 35/19    (-3.5)

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening)   (5.5)

 

The average temperature at SEA for 2/4-2/8 period was 30.2 degrees.

 

The average temperature per my forecast above was 29.0 degrees.

 

The actual temperature at SEA was 1.2 degrees WARMER THAN MY FORECAST.    :lol: 

 

 

I was too cold on 3 out 5 days

I was too warm on 2 out 5 days

 

And there was increasing clouds with light snow by evening on Saturday.

 

Once again my cold bias shows... I need to adjust my forecasts upward in the future.   

 

You were still way too warm for the heart of the event. Leave it to a ridiculously warm skewing station to make you feel like a forecasting god. :lol: You would have blown a forecast for anywhere else in the western lowlands but here.



#50
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:40 AM

TT-SEA

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You were still way too warm for the heart of the event. Leave it to a ridiculously warm skewing station to make you feel like a forecasting god. :lol: You would have blown a forecast for anywhere else in the western lowlands but here.

 

 

Not really... even Jim mentioned that SEA was running in the middle of the pack and he was very pleased about that.

 

For example... it was 38 degrees at my house on Friday which is the same high for SEA.     

 

I certainly can better forecast SEA anyways.   I more familiar with this area.    You mocked my forecast up here like it was so far off it was comical... and yet it was actually still too cold.