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February 2014, non-sun angle affected, Arctic forecast contest

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#51
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:45 AM

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Not really... even Jim mentioned that SEA was running in the middle of the pack and he was very pleased about that.

 

For example... it was 38 degrees at my house on Friday which is the same high for SEA.     

 

I certainly can better forecast SEA anyways.   I more familiar with this area.    You mocked my forecast up here like it was so far off it was comical... and yet it was actually still too cold.    

 

Whatever. Your forecast was still way too warm overall. I don't want to waste my whole morning arguing with you though, so I'll just leave this thread now.



#52
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:47 AM

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Whatever. Your forecast was still way too warm overall. I don't want to waste my whole morning arguing with you though, so I'll just leave this thread now.

 

 

I forecasted SEA... you mocked it for being so warm... I ended up 1.2 degrees too cold.

 

Pure math.   Cannot argue with it at all.   Its just numbers.



#53
Black Hole

Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:50 AM

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Good forecast or not, please behave guys. I don't like getting up and reading this kind of crap. There will be consequences for those instigating it if it continues.


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#54
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:55 AM

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Good forecast or not, please behave guys. I don't like getting up and reading this kind of crap. There will be consequences for those instigating it if it continues.

 

Even when I prove statistically that I was too cold for SEA... and show the math... somehow I am still at fault.   :lol: 

 

Amazing. 



#55
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:55 AM

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Wow.

 

I forecasted SEA... you mocked it for being so warm... I ended up 1.2 degrees too cold.

 

Pure math.   Cannot argue with it at all.   Its just numbers.

 

And you still mock me.    Seems so petty.   You are trolling now.  

 

I mocked your whole forecast for being too warm. I don't care about SEA. I knew they would probably fry with the sensor issues they've been having.

 

You didn't show a single day below freezing for PDX. They ended up with four in a row. One was 23/19! How on earth can you call your forecast great??



#56
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:02 AM

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I mocked your whole forecast for being too warm. I don't care about SEA. I knew they would probably fry with the sensor issues they've been having.

 

You didn't show a single day below freezing for PDX. They ended up with four in a row. One was 23/19! How on earth can you call your forecast great??

 

 

Everyone blew the forecast for PDX.    Me included.    Quite a change in the pattern that no one saw coming last weekend.    

 

But... I also forecasted SEA.    Whether you care about it or not... we do up here.     And the sensor was not wacky.   Boeing Field ran warmer than SEA the entire event.   Jim said a few times that the sensor seems to have been fixed because SEA were running as cold as other places.

 

Still my SEA forecast was too cold.   I did a good job up here.    

 

Everyone got an 'F' on the PDX forecast.    



#57
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:04 AM

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Everyone blew the forecast for PDX.    Me included.    Quite a change in the pattern that no one saw coming last weekend.    

 

But... I also forecasted SEA.    Whether you care about it or not... we do up here.     And the sensor was not wacky.   Boeing Field ran warmer than SEA the entire event.   Jim said a few time that the sensor seems to have been fixed because they were running as cold as other places.

 

Still my SEA forecast was too cold.   I did a good job up here.    

 

I just realized you used your first forecast for comparison. Not your updated (warmer) one. 

 

Cheater.

 

And you had noting to do with that forecast. It was the GFS MOS.



#58
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:05 AM

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Also, you showed SEA with no highs above freezing. They ended up with two. Sounds like your forecast busted warm.



#59
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:09 AM

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I just realized you used your first forecast for comparison. Not your updated (warmer) one. 

 

Cheater.

 

And you had noting to do with that forecast. It was the GFS MOS.

 

 

I used my final forecast... not my first one.

 

Just stop.



#60
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:11 AM

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I used my final forecast... not my first one.

 

Just stop.

 

A horrible, painful joke of a forecast. That's what yours was and shall forever be remembered as. :)



#61
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:13 AM

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A horrible, painful joke of a forecast. That's what yours was and shall forever be remembered as. :)

 

SEA - average 30.2

 

My forecast - average 29.0

 

Nothing more to say.   I was too cold.    



#62
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:21 AM

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When I show you the math and keep it objective and you do this stuff... you show yourself to be so incredibly petty.      You could argue its July right now and still mock people who tried to prove you wrong.   You really should be a defense lawyer.   

 

Just trying to expose your BS for what it is. 

 

You claim the models had NO IDEA what would happen beyond Thursday at the time we made our forecasts. So let's just focus on Tue-Thur. Oh look, your forecast busts incredibly warm when we do that. You had SEA in the mid 30s Wed and Thu. They were actually 31 and 29 on those days.

 

For PDX you had Tuesday in the low 40s and Wednesday and Thursday in the mid-30s. In reality they were 37, 29 and 23 for those days.

 

How can you call that a great forecast? Let's just assume everything beyond Thursday is a wash since the models changed so much. Your (the GFS MOS's) forecast was NOT even a good short term forecast. It was a joke. It busted more horribly and pathetically than any forecast I've ever seen in the history of this forum. :)



#63
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:27 AM

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Just trying to expose your BS for what it is. 

 

You claim the models had NO IDEA what would happen beyond Thursday at the time we made our forecasts. So let's just focus on Tue-Thur. Oh look, your forecast busts incredibly warm when we do that. You had SEA in the mid 30s Wed and Thu. They were actually 31 and 29 on those days.

 

For PDX you had Tuesday in the low 40s and Wednesday and Thursday in the mid-30s. In reality they were 37, 29 and 23 for those days.

 

How can you call that a great forecast? Let's just assume everything beyond Thursday is a wash since the models changed so much. Your (the GFS MOS's) forecast was NOT even a good short term forecast. It was a joke. It busted more horribly and pathetically than any forecast I've ever seen in the history of this forum. :)

 

Everyone busted for PDX.   Everyone did horrible.   Got it.

 

SEA - average 30.2

 

My forecast - average 29.0

 

BFI was warmer than SEA.

 

Nothing more to say.   I was too cold for SEA.  

 

You can argue all you want.    I was too cold and even I can't change that!


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#64
Jesse

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:31 AM

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Everyone busted for PDX.   Everyone did horrible.   Got it.

 

SEA - average 30.2

 

My forecast - average 29.0

 

BFI was warmer than SEA.

 

Nothing more to say.   I was too cold for SEA.  

 

You can argue all you want.    I was too cold and even I can't change that!

 

What a joke of a forecast yours was. Stop reminding me how incredibly wrong it was :lol:

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:



#65
TT-SEA

Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:32 AM

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What a joke of a forecast yours was. Stop reminding me how incredibly wrong it was :lol:

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

 

:lol:


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