Jump to content

Predict the next cold month!


BLI snowman

Will it ever cold again?  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. When will PDX/SEA see their next cooler than average month?

    • September 2015
      2
    • October 2015
      5
    • November 2015
      3
    • December 2015
      5
    • Early 2016
      1
    • Middle to late 2016
      5
    • Whenever the PDO drops
      2
    • Whenever snow wizard returns
      1
    • Whenever Jesse leaves the region
      2
    • Never
      1


Recommended Posts

Hey guys!

 

It's been a real long while since two things have happened:

 

1. Having a really sweet poll on here

2. A cooler than average month!

 

By most counts across the region, the last one was way back in February 2014. There's toddlers that are talking now who weren't even born then!

 

So what do you guys think, will we break the streak soon?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

November or December will be cold, and every month following that cold month will scorch. I’m saying December because i’m dreaming of a white christmas.

 

OFA predicting a snowy winter for the NW! 224 years of guessing and nobody holding them accountable. wooo!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys!

 

It's been a real long while since two things have happened:

 

1. Having a really sweet poll on here

2. A cooler than average month!

 

By most counts across the region, the last one was way back in February 2014. There's toddlers that are talking now who weren't even born then!

 

So what do you guys think, will we break the streak soon?

My daughter was born in Febuary of 2014, was snowing on the drive to the hospital! And yes she is now talking.

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys!

 

It's been a real long while since two things have happened:

 

1. Having a really sweet poll on here

2. A cooler than average month!

 

By most counts across the region, the last one was way back in February 2014. There's toddlers that are talking now who weren't even born then!

 

So what do you guys think, will we break the streak soon?

 

If we're going by PDX/SEA, does that mean both have to be below normal the same month? Or would the average of both the same month have to be below normal?

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we're going by PDX/SEA, does that mean both have to be below normal the same month? Or would the average of both the same month have to be below normal?

Just to make it more interesting, I`ll say both stations have to be below their all-time averages in the same month.

 

Gotta be a genuinely cool month in other words. None of that pansy November 2014 type crap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO weeklies and CFS both like the idea of a trough over or just off the coast for September. Good chance for a below normal month if that occurs. 

  • Like 1

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was pretty thrilled about getting placed in Carson, WA.

 

Of course it ended up being one of our mildest three-year stretches in history.

 

The timing has been unfortunate for both you and Justin. There has been a dearth of Fraser-river events since he moved to Bellingham (one decent one maybe?), and a bad stretch for the Gorge while you were there.

 

It's a cruel world.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The timing has been unfortunate for both you and Justin. There has been a dearth of Fraser-river events since he moved to Bellingham (one decent one maybe?), and a bad stretch for the Gorge while you were there.

 

It's a cruel world.

February 2014 was by far the most notable winter event of my time out there. An 18/14 day with blizzard conditions and nearly a foot and a half of snow all told. But nothing else came even remotely close. I think my second biggest snowfall was 2-3".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

February 2014 was by far the most notable winter event of my time out there. An 18/14 day with blizzard conditions and nearly a foot and a half of snow all told. But nothing else came even remotely close. I think my second biggest snowfall was 2-3".

 

True, at least you got one exceptional event. Could have been worse, though not much overall for a 3 year period.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The timing has been unfortunate for both you and Justin. There has been a dearth of Fraser-river events since he moved to Bellingham (one decent one maybe?), and a bad stretch for the Gorge while you were there.

 

It's a cruel world.

 

It's been a reasonably average 5 years up here. 2012-13 and 2014-15 sucked massively, but 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14 all had good Fraser River outflow based snowfall events. Only big struggle has been getting snow going into a cold spell. January 2012 sort of counts but otherwise you have to go back to November 2010 to find a solid snow followed by a legitimate arctic blast up this way.

 

I'll be taking a job in the Portland area this fall, so I'm moving back down there in the next few weeks. I'll miss Whatcom County and will probably still visit every couple months. Ultimately I'm going to end up somewhere else eventually. My work is in facility operations (e.g. hotels) and my aim is actually to move into ski resort operations within the next few years. Long term I'm looking towards Utah/Colorado/Idaho.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been a reasonably average 5 years up here. 2012-13 and 2014-15 sucked massively, but 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14 all had good Fraser River outflow based snowfall events. Only big struggle has been getting snow going into a cold spell. January 2012 sort of counts but otherwise you have to go back to November 2010 to find a solid snow followed by a legitimate arctic blast up this way.

 

Hmm... as a long-time resident I'd say the three "good" winters in that bunch were just about average, but those other two stinkers drag down the overall average by a really huge amount. I only got 3" in 2012/13 and just 1" last winter; and 2009/10 was also mediocre, save for December.

 

For Abbotsford (I don't know about Bellingham), this has been the second worst five year period for snowfall since records began, with an average of 28.6 cm (11.3") per year between 2010 and 2014.

 

The absolute worst five year period was 1997-2001 with 26.6 cm (10.5") on average. The third worst five year period was 1983-1987 with an average of 36.1 cm (14.2").

 

It's really too bad you weren't living here between 1990 and 1996, or 2005-2009... because those were some of the best years since the mid 1970's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been a reasonably average 5 years up here. 2012-13 and 2014-15 sucked massively, but 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14 all had good Fraser River outflow based snowfall events. Only big struggle has been getting snow going into a cold spell. January 2012 sort of counts but otherwise you have to go back to November 2010 to find a solid snow followed by a legitimate arctic blast up this way.

 

I'll be taking a job in the Portland area this fall, so I'm moving back down there in the next few weeks. I'll miss Whatcom County and will probably still visit every couple months. Ultimately I'm going to end up somewhere else eventually. My work is in facility operations (e.g. hotels) and my aim is actually to move into ski resort operations within the next few years. Long term I'm looking towards Utah/Colorado/Idaho.

If you move here, I can give you climate advice at this point. I moved to Bountiful because it gets better windstorms and more snow than Salt Lake does, for example.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

How is it shaping up so far? It has seemed like there has been a lot of troughing and rain as a whole but I haven't been watching that closely.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

-

How about a better (little more specific.) definition of just what a "cold month" is more at this point Derrick. ?

 

What were you [perhaps] thinking about more specifically, as basic parameters / temps., ect.. ? 

 

The definition that was given in the first post is what I am assuming we are all going off of here. Naturally that mean the mean temperature for the month (high and low) being below normal. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

-
Ok so, fairly straight forward then, not the initial "snow" anywhere within the PNW, initial "blasts" of colder air, "first frost" maybe, or anything like that more in particular, but just more below average mean. I see. 
 
.. I guess I'll go, with November. ... with the way both, more general patterning has been going, together with what I'm seeing more generally, more cyclicalinter-seasonallywhere looking at colder air's main both more latitudinal along with more longitudinal both movement and distribution, general leaning and potential at this point.

 

Still some room certainly, for heat being generated more south, to migrate north through October.

---
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From your comments, I thought your suffering had momentarily ceased this month.

 

But of course...see my sig.

This month has been much improved. Just annoying that it will ultimately end up above average despite some really decent cool patterns scattered throughout.

 

It has been 19 months since PDX saw a below average monthly anomaly now. That is insane.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...