Predict the next cold month!

[Front Ranger]

This month has been much improved. Just annoying that it will ultimately end up above average despite some really decent cool patterns scattered throughout.

 

It has been 19 months since PDX saw a below average monthly anomaly now. That is insane.

 

It's been 10 months. Nov 2014.

[Jesse]

It's been 10 months. Nov 2014.

0.3 below average is an average month. +/- 0.5 is pretty much average.

 

This month will end up in that range, just like April 2015 and November 2014. Right around average seems to be just about the best we can muster as far as "cool" monthly anomalies go these days.

 

If the timing keeps up we will have another spine tinglingly chilly, near-average monthly anomaly to look forward to in February 2016!

[Front Ranger]

0.3 below average is an average month. +/- 0.5 is pretty much average.

 

In a strictly non-literal and subjective sense, yes.

 

In a literal and objective sense, no. The actual average is usually where the line in the sand is drawn.

 

So if your point was it's been 19 months since PDX saw a solidly below average monthly anomaly, and you want to go with -.5 or greater to define that, sure.

[Black Hole]

Here in Salt Lake we had a below average July this summer, our last below average month before that looks to be Aug 2014 (using Jesse's definition.) In terms of a cold month during winter, it looks like Dec 2013 was the last one. Last winter the DJF average was about +7F. 

[Jesse]

In a strictly non-literal and subjective sense, yes.

 

In a literal and objective sense, no. The actual average is usually where the line in the sand is drawn.

 

So if your point was it's been 19 months since PDX saw a solidly below average monthly anomaly, and you want to go with -.5 or greater to define that, sure.

 

Basic mathematics backs up my definition. For +/- 0.5 you would almost always round to zero.

 

+/- 0.5 is average. If I were somebody else I'm sure Justin would be chiming in and backing me up right about now.

[Front Ranger]

Here in Salt Lake we had a below average July this summer, our last below average month before that looks to be Aug 2014 (using Jesse's definition.) In terms of a cold month during winter, it looks like Dec 2013 was the last one. Last winter the DJF average was about +7F. 

 

Far cry from here, that's for sure.

[Jesse]

Far cry from here, that's for sure.

 

-PDO phase still in full control in the greater Denver area?

[Front Ranger]

Basic mathematics backs up my definition. For +/- 0.5 you would almost always round to zero.

 

+/- 0.5 is average. If I were somebody else I'm sure Justin would be chiming in and backing me up right about now.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve1rjZ9aOsI

[Front Ranger]

-PDO phase still in full control in the greater Denver area?

 

We don't need no stinkin' -PDO here.

[BLI snowman]

In a strictly non-literal and subjective sense, yes.

 

In a literal and objective sense, no. The actual average is usually where the line in the sand is drawn.

 

So if your point was it's been 19 months since PDX saw a solidly below average monthly anomaly, and you want to go with -.5 or greater to define that, sure.

 

November 2014 was not below the long term average at PDX, it was about 0.3 degrees above it

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or6751

 

February 2014 was the last cooler than average month at that station. 

[Jesse]

November 2014 was not below the long term average at PDX, it was about 0.3 degrees above it

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or6751

 

February 2014 was the last cooler than average month at that station. 

 

There he is!

[Jesse]

Assuming PDX pulls off something like a 78/48 today and a 75/51 tomorrow, their monthly average for September will end up at 63.9.

 

0.25 above the long term average, but 0.6 below the 1981-2010 average. A pretty normal month.

 

Still waiting on a below average one....

[BLI snowman]

There he is!

 

 

Well, not that it makes any difference but you're both off base 

 

I'm not going to build an arbitrary fence to separate the "pretender" cold departures from the genuine ones. A -0.3 anomaly at this point would certainly suffice. The question as it relates to the topic is just about pulling off a cooler than average month. It doesn't have to be anything special. 

 

That being said, November 2014 doesn't meet the qualifications that I specified a month or so ago. The month needs to be below the historical (1940s to now) norms at both PDX and SEA. +0.3 won't do. Nor will whatever this month is going to end up at.

[Jesse]

Well, not that it makes any difference but you're both off base

 

I'm not going to build an arbitrary fence to separate the "pretender" cold departures from the genuine ones. A -0.3 anomaly at this point would certainly suffice. The question as it relates to the topic is just about pulling off a cooler than average month. It doesn't have to be anything special.

 

That being said, November 2014 doesn't meet the qualifications that I specified a month or so ago. The month needs to be below the historical (1940s to now) norms at both PDX and SEA. +0.3 won't do. Nor will whatever this month is going to end up at.

Oh hush. I've heard you make the same "+/- 0.5 constitues an average monthly anomaly" argument in the past.

 

In fact I think you made the argument to me, back in my younger, more Flatiron-like, cold anomaly salesperson days.

[BLI snowman]

Oh hush. I've heard you make the same "+/- 0.5 constitues an average monthly anomaly" argument in the past.

 

In fact I think you made the argument to me, back in my younger, more Flatiron-like, cold anomaly salesperson days.

 

The discussion is simply about achieving our next monthly cold anomaly, the extent of which doesn't really factor into this as long as it falls below the long term average.

 

If you want to start a poll asking when we will see our next "impressively cold" month, you are free to do so.  

[Jesse]

The discussion is simply about achieving our next monthly cold anomaly, the extent of which doesn't really factor into this as long as it falls below the long term average.

 

If you want to start a poll asking when we will see our next "impressively cold" month, you are free to do so.

Hey, I'm not the one that brought semantics into this thread. I simply stated that PDX had not seen a below average month since February 2014 (true by the "arbitrary" guidelines laid out in the poll ) then flatiron starting flatironing me.

 

Carry on.

[Deweydog]

Valiant effort, but no dice, senor.

The surprise mid/high level clouds sunk me. I'm sure your frigid October call will work out though!

[Front Ranger]

November 2014 was not below the long term average at PDX, it was about 0.3 degrees above it

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or6751

 

February 2014 was the last cooler than average month at that station. 

 

Completely different argument than Jesse's, of course.

[Front Ranger]

Hey, I'm not the one that brought semantics into this thread. I simply stated that PDX had not seen a below average month since February 2014 (true by the "arbitrary" guidelines laid out in the poll ) then flatiron starting flatironing me.

 

Carry on.

 

Yeah, didn't realize you were going by those arbitrary guidelines.

 

My bad. Wasn't trying to argue semantics, it actually felt like you were doing that with me. I forgot the exact guidelines Justin had setup originally for what qualifies. 

[Front Ranger]

The surprise mid/high level clouds sunk me. I'm sure your frigid October call will work out though!

 

Semantics!

[Front Ranger]

If we're going by PDX/SEA, does that mean both have to be below normal the same month? Or would the average of both the same month have to be below normal?

 

 

Just to make it more interesting, I`ll say both stations have to be below their all-time averages in the same month.

 

Gotta be a genuinely cool month in other words. None of that pansy November 2014 type crap.

 

Good thing I asked what the actual standard was back then, otherwise this thread would REALLY be a mess.

[Deweydog]

Semantics!

They're definitely your thing!

[snow_wizard]

It doesn't look like anyone acknowledged SEA came out almost a degree below average in September.

[BLI snowman]

It doesn't look like anyone acknowledged SEA came out almost a degree below average in September.

 

September 2015 was 0.02 degrees below the historic running average at SEA, so it was indeed a cooler than average month there. 

 

Fetus steps!

[snow_wizard]

I'm going with November for our next below normal month and probably the only below normal month of the coming cold season (with the possible exception of March if the Nino collapses soon enough). November is historically one of the most likely months to have a taste of Arctic air during a Nino ala 1896, 1900, 1977, 2006, and a few others.

[snow_wizard]

And the ones who voted for November carry the day!

[Brennan]

And the ones who voted for November carry the day!

I hope you’re wrong in what you said about November being the only cold month all winter!

[snow_wizard]

I hope you’re wrong in what you said about November being the only cold month all winter!

 

It appears we may be in business until mid Jan or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are always in business. But are we doing any?

[seattleweatherguy]

How about January?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm with Seattleweatherguy. I am going to say January 2016 will be slightly below average regionally...