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September Observations and Discussion


Tom

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JMA weeklies also came in today which are showing some cooler weather near the Lakes through Week 1.  However, Week 2-4 pop goes the ridge and that leads us right into Labor Day weekend and into mid September.  Would be kinda nice to enjoy some more summery weather before Fall really begins to settle in.

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Talk about a wet pattern for September!  CFS showing a stark temp contrast creating convergence and storminess for the central CONUS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150820.201509.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20150820.201509.gif

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Since there has been some discussion of September and early Autumn weather already, I decided to start the thread and move some of the discussion of September over here. Posts above are from last week.

 

Tom posted some CFS maps showing a mild month for some and a very wet month for all of us.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Here is CPC's take on September...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif

 

Pretty similar to what the CFS is showing in the 4 corners region and the central states.

 

 

Also, they update their Sept-Nov Outlook as well...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp_small.gif

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Most Labor Day's/Labor Day weekends are pretty warm around here. 2011 though only had a high of 61°! 

So not surprised if there is one last bout of heat left to go.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The HEAT is ON...00z Euro pumping low/mid90's all the way into the lower lakes region from Tue-Fri next week!  Crazy late season surge of warmth if this transpires.

Its funny because it was not that hot around here in July or even August and now, September will be hotter than both months.. Go figure. Crazy Summer.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It will be blazing hot here next week. Sunny, and hot. I don't think the humidity will be a big factor as we are approaching late in the Summer season. Although, it can get a bit humid in September.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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CFS still on board with a Torchy and Wet month...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150826.201509.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20150826.201509.gif

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Hi all, been awhile since I have posted.  Getting back in the swing of school year and coaching football, very busy.  Have had a nice summer in Central Nebraska.  Many places have received above normal rainfall and temps have been manageable.  Really cool last week but has warmed alot this week.  Today is now sitting at 88 with dew of 66.  Looks warm but not hot over the next week.  Waiting to see what effects an el nino will have around here.  

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60s weather is too cold for me at this time of year being from Dallas Texas, I'm excited for this warmer September! Turn up the heat!

Your blood is too thin for this type of weather!  Haha, its funny you say this bc my folks are visiting me from Arizona and they are freezing today.  Long pants and hoodies, the whole nine...lol...I can't imagine how cold you will be this Fall/Winter when we have intrusions of bitter cold.

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Your blood is too thin for this type of weather!  Haha, its funny you say this bc my folks are visiting me from Arizona and they are freezing today.  Long pants and hoodies, the whole nine...lol...I can't imagine how cold you will be this Fall/Winter when we have intrusions of bitter cold.

I don't care how cold it is (it can be -30) if theres snow on the ground I'll love. We usually only get one good snow storm every 4 years in North Texas, last year we had back to back 6 inch plus storms the year before we had an ice storm with 5 inches of of sleet and windchills in the single digits in 2010 we had 14 inches of snow, I loved them all. Now when it's 5 degrees and dry I'm going to hate it lol.

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I don't care how cold it is (it can be -30) if theres snow on the ground I'll love. We usually only get one good snow storm every 4 years in North Texas, last year we had back to back 6 inch plus storms the year before we had an ice storm with 5 inches of of sleet and windchills in the single digits in 2010 we had 14 inches of snow, I loved them all. Now when it's 5 degrees and dry I'm going to hate it lol.

Folks in the Plains experienced one of the coldest and driest winters on record in 2013-2014.  So I think they can attest to your comment being depressed while its brutal cold and dry with bare brown ground!  I sure hope this season we can build a Glacier in our region and everyone on this Forum can experience some action.

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What do you guys typically look for to try to get a first expectation for winter in your outdoor enviroment? In Texas we usually looks to see how early acorns are blooming and falling, and how big the ant mounds get. I've already seen squirrels scanvenging for nuts and finding some on the osu campus if that means anyhting.

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What do you guys typically look for to try to get a first expectation for winter in your outdoor enviroment? In Texas we usually looks to see how early acorns are blooming and falling, and how big the ant mounds get. I've already seen squirrels scanvenging for nuts and finding some on the osu campus if that means anyhting.

I've heard about the squirrel theory but I've noticed if the leaves on the tree's turn color earlier (like last year and the year before) it may be a sign of a tougher Winter ahead.

 

00z Euro pumping up the 90's into N IL from Tue-Sat, some mid 90's showing up as well.  Will we finally have our 1st official Heat Wave???

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One year, many years ago the only heat wave for the whole year was in the beginning of September. Heat in early September is usually drier. It will act to speed up the leaf color and drying of the corn.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Euro Ensembles indicating an end to the Heat right on or, just after Labor Day.  GFS from time to time has been showing a sharp cool down Labor Day week.  The CFS model has also been showing this on occastion.  Summer's last stance???  Might as well, it's been a great Summer thus far.  Really looking forward to a nice, warm weekend ahead.

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After digesting the Euro Ensembles & CFS over the past few days, it doesn't look like much ridging is being presented by the modeling after Labor Day.  Looks like a much cooler and wet look.  The amount of above normal weather that is coming for the first week of this month, may potentially be followed by just as much cooling during the 2nd week offsetting any positive anomalies in temperatures.

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GFS exaggerating the cold shot as usual. Did the same exact thing earlier this month when we all thought the 80 degree streak would end short of 20 days (lol). Will most likely be highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s during that time. I'm more impressed by that massive ridge that engulfs the most of the CONUS by hour 300.

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00z Euro/GFS Ensembles starting to show some agreement in the 10-15 day range and showcasing a trough in the Central CONUS.  Both models are creating a ridge in NW NAMER right where all that cold early season air is beginning to build.  It'll be interesting to see how chilly things get, if they do at all.

 

Alaska/NW Territories already seeing some snow capped mountains....

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

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CPC updated the September Outlook and is in line with the CFS model now...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif

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Having a ridge in place is very boring. Upper 80s and humid for at least a week straight and no precip. But it may be Summer's last stand. Mid-long range looks much cooler.

Hey, look at the bright side, at least we are now in Meteorological Fall!  Ensembles are still trying to signal a sharp cool down later in Week 2.  The CFSv2 has been showing a big time cool down mid month and beyond.  Could be some indication of the transitioning LRC.

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