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Fall 2015 Colder Air Mass Movement and Distribution Projections ..

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#1
richard mann

Posted 24 August 2015 - 07:54 AM

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(.. More leading up to the beginning of fall this year, as this projection's main timeframe end's near the main fall equinox break. / This thread follows in line with one similar, covering the same idea where looking at this past summer. @)
 
.. Following a period of general regression of colder air lending to the idea of some amount of consolidation of cold north through higher latitudes from the 25th of Aug. through the 5th of Sept., .. this with where looked at more longitudinally, main cold's having been caused to move more slowly east from the 30th of Aug. also through the 4th or 5th of Sept., …
 
.. On the Sept. 6th where looked at more broadly from east to west, fuller hemispheric scope, main colder air mass should begin to move and spread progressively more southward with continuing to do so daily more through to very near the fall equinox. 
 
This while where looked at more longitudinally during this same general period, main and broader cold's beginning to move assertive east beginning on the 4th of Sept. or so, before slowing steadily daily more from the 12th of Sept. or so forward for several days.

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.


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#2
richard mann

Posted 19 September 2015 - 09:37 PM

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.
On the 21st of Sept., colder air looked at more broadly, having been in general expansion mode daily more southward since the 6th, will begin to regress back northward, steadily more daily, through the 3rd of October.
 
This, while where looked at more longitudinally, broader cold continues its current generally slower movement and pace more eastward begun back on the 13th, through to the 24th of Sept. or so, before picking up its pace east for a short period of days through Sept. 27th.
  
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.


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#3
richard mann

Posted 04 October 2015 - 07:55 PM

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Having begun to do so yesterday on the 4th, main colder air mass looked at more broadlyacross the board from east to west, fuller Northern hemispheric scopeshould continue to move and spread daily, steadily and progressively more southward, through the 18th of October.
 
This while during this same general period main colder air being caused to move more longitudinally, more assertively east through the 12th, before then from the 13th of Oct. forward main cold being caused to slow its pace east daily for several days, even through until the 22nd or so.
  
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.
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#4
richard mann

Posted 18 October 2015 - 08:53 AM

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With having been moving and spreading south since the 4th of Oct., …

.. Main cold air mass looked at more broadly, should begin to regress back daily, steadily more northward from this point forward through to the end of October.

If certainly also in line with the more basic advance of fall, with this general regression of cold, look for main cold stores north to consolidate increasingly better through the higher latitudes.  Just where they do, important to colder air's next general expansion more south.

.. During this same general period, and with continuing to do so begun on the 13th, where looked at more longitudinally, main cold air should continue its current slower movement more eastward through the 23rd or 24th of Oct., with beginning to move more assertively east for a shorter period of days, from then through the 27th, and with slowing gradually but steadily from that point forward.
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.
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#5
richard mann

Posted 30 October 2015 - 07:27 PM

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At this point the general regression of colder air mass more northward dailybegun back on the 18th of Octoberis near complete. And with this idea main cold should begin to expand steadily more southward starting overnight tonight and into tomorrow the 31st, with continuing to do so daily more where looked at more generally, through Nov. 14th. 
 
This, while where looked at more longitudinally, and with main cold looked at across the board from east to west - main Northern hemispheric scope, having been slowing its main more predominate eastward progress since the 27th, cold's pace east more at this point being set to pick over the next few days, with continuing to do so if only gradually more daily through Nov. 11th, before beginning to slow again, gradually.
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.


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#6
richard mann

Posted 12 November 2015 - 09:45 AM

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With having been moving and spreading progressively more southward since the 31st of Oct, and with being set to complete its current general expansion into the mid-latitudes on the 14th of Nov., main and broader cold air mass should begin to regress more back northward daily on the 15th, with continue to do so through the 27th of November.

 

This, while with broader cold's having begun to slow its main progress more eastward more longitudinally just yesterday, this slowing being set to continue through the 23rd of Nov. or so, before beginning to pick up in pace again if only for 3 or 4th days, before slowing again.

 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.


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#7
happ

Posted 12 November 2015 - 09:56 AM

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It has definitely been colder across the Southwest into Texas; some real nice snow events in the Sierra & Rockies.



#8
richard mann

Posted 12 November 2015 - 11:27 AM

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.. Good consolidation of cold stores through the higher latitudes, looked at along together with the general "Nino" circumstance, .. Things appear to be shaping up pretty well for a more "average" type of (Hate the word, with its way overuse elsewhere here at this forum.) "regime". ....


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#9
richard mann

Posted 24 November 2015 - 10:01 AM

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.. Resounding what I've pointed to suggested just above somewhat, synonymous with colder air's current general regress more northward @ .. the current level of consolidation of cold stores north is looking pretty good. This year more across the board east to west than last, even more upstream.
 
This, with also where and with looking at how colder air's more longitudinal movement and pace has been playing out (more cyclically.), even the decent potential for a good snow year for the Far West north to south.
 
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur  (.. updating.)
 
More static.  15112412z nhem 850.gif  .. source: Unisys Wx


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#10
richard mann

Posted 29 November 2015 - 12:29 AM

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After having been in general regress (retracting daily) more northward since Nov. 15th, on the 27th of Nov. main colder air mass began to move and spread more southward. This general expansion of main cold air should continue through the 12th or so of December. 
 
At the same time more longitudinally during this period, with having begun to do so on the 26th of Nov., main cold should continue to move more slowly east through the 1st or 2nd of Dec., before beginning to step up its pace eastward, daily more through to Dec. 11th.
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.


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#11
richard mann

Posted 11 December 2015 - 11:13 PM

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With having been moving and spreading fairly strongly out of the north south for the past few days, along with if less so since back on the 27th of November, from this point forward and through until the 25th of December colder air mass—(both more here in the West and more upstream, together with also more fully across the board from east to west, main and broader Northern Hemisphere)should be in general regress, or retraction mode, daily more northern.

This, with where otherwise looking at broader cold's more longitudinal potential over and during this general period, its at the same time, and with its over the past week or so been moving increasingly more strongly, more zonally, eastward (by degrees ESE.), colder air massalso both where considering the West, and more across the boardshould be caused to slow this stronger movement east, gradually though progressively more daily, through to near 20th or so of December, before picking its pace up again, as with its general regress, through to about the 25th.
 
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* Note with reviewing the images accessible below that the main more latitudinal propensity of colder air mass looked at more broadly within the Northern Hemisphere hadin factbeen daily more southward since the 27th of November. This with and if also at the same time, where looked at more longitudinally from the 27th forward through the 1st or 2nd of December, more slowly east, before then having stepped up its main progress and pace more eastward. @

0° centered. _____________ 60°W centered. __________iimage source:=http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/#GOES

151127 00 global-ir _____ 151127 00 global-ir 60w
151128 00 global-ir _____ 151128 00 global-ir 60w
151129 00 global-ir _____ 151129 00 global-ir 60w
151130 00 global-ir _____ 151130 00 global-ir 60w
151201 00 global-ir _____ 151201 00 global-ir 60w
151202 00 global-ir _____ 151202 00 global-ir 60w
151203 00 global-ir _____ 151203 00 global-ir 60w
151204 00 global-ir _____ 151204 00 global-ir 60w
151205 00 global-ir _____ 151205 00 global-ir 60w
151206 00 global-ir _____ 151206 00 global-ir 60w
151207 00 global-ir _____ 151207 00 global-ir 60w
151208 00 global-ir _____ 151208 00 global-ir 60w
151209 00 global-ir _____ 151209 00 global-ir 60w  

.. With considering these images, if beginning with the first one, and instead of clicking on the next you adjust its main url to read the date of the next (151127 to 151128.), and then continue this idea with each image following listed, then you can in fact check these images in more direct sequence, i.e. within, and with using your browser and its main "forward" and "back" [button] feature controls. / This or either, with a system and browser that instead more automatically downloads these images, your identifying where they've been routed, with then choosing them all, toward being able view them more sequentially within a more simple picture viewer type of application. @
 
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No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.


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