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Updated Solar Cycle Prediction


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#1
Andie

Posted 27 August 2015 - 07:41 AM

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http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number V2.0 maximum of about 101 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number V2.0 reached a peak of 116.4 in April 2014. This will probably become the official maximum. This second peak surpassed the level of the first peak (98.3 in March 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over seven years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14, which had a maximum smoothed sunspot number V2.0 of 107.2 in February of 1906.

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#2
iFred

Posted 27 August 2015 - 08:11 AM

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Thanks for the update Andie!
 

Curious if anyone is building a winter forecast that is taking sunspots into account.



#3
Phil

Posted 27 August 2015 - 01:48 PM

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I always take solar into account, but until the next solar minimum there are probably more important/dominant forcings to worry about. Obviously, I'm not going to use any of the 1990s years due to solar and volcanic/CFC-forced destruction of polar O^3 & a weak Brewer-Dobson circulation.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#4
weatherfan2012

Posted 27 August 2015 - 04:03 PM

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agreed phil that it is wise not to put the whole on the solar this winter but use it as a part of the picture as you said there are other factors that maybe more important or just as important this winter. I think the bigger question is what happens with the end of this cycle 24 and also what happens with cycle 25 and cycle 26.I can see some very interisting discussion on this topic from the likes of you and Geos and others in the up coming years ahead.

#5
Geos

Posted 05 September 2015 - 11:45 AM

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Thanks for posting Andie! Look like sometime next year will be half way in terms of sunspot count with regards to the predicted slope.

 

Definitely some important factors coming up until we reach minimum around 2020.

Probably a more mild this winter for the U.S., but I'm guessing will start trending downward for the 16-17 winter.


Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 25.65"

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#6
Black Hole

Posted 05 October 2015 - 01:23 PM

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I always take solar into account, but until the next solar minimum there are probably more important/dominant forcings to worry about. Obviously, I'm not going to use any of the 1990s years due to solar and volcanic/CFC-forced destruction of polar O^3 & a weak Brewer-Dobson circulation.

These things result in a colder stratosphere and thus stronger PV right? What caused the weaker BD circulation? 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#7
Phil

Posted 05 October 2015 - 06:35 PM

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These things result in a colder stratosphere and thus stronger PV right? What caused the weaker BD circulation?


Yup. It's unfortunate that so many of the Niño/QBO analogs during the 1980-2000 period are non-homogenous in the polar stratosphere.

The weaker BDC can be attributed to a persistent +solar/+volcanism/+MLAAM regime along with anthropogenic CFC emissions. These forcings all exacerbate the rate of O^3 photodissociation.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#8
Black Hole

Posted 05 October 2015 - 06:42 PM

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Yup. It's unfortunate that so many of the Niño/QBO analogs during the 1980-2000 period are non-homogenous in the polar stratosphere.

The weaker BDC can be attributed to a persistent +solar/+volcanism/+MLAAM regime along with anthropogenic CFC emissions. These forcings all exacerbate the rate of O^3 photodissociation.

What I am meaning is, what about those changes you mention weaken the BDC? Why is a colder stratosphere or stronger PV bad for that circulation?


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#9
weatherfan2012

Posted 05 October 2015 - 06:57 PM

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Yup. It's unfortunate that so many of the Niño/QBO analogs during the 1980-2000 period are non-homogenous in the polar stratosphere.
The weaker BDC can be attributed to a persistent +solar/+volcanism/+MLAAM regime along with anthropogenic CFC emissions. These forcings all exacerbate the rate of O^3 photodissociation.

just a question what are CFC emissions ? I seen you message them but not sure what they were or are thanks phil

#10
Phil

Posted 05 October 2015 - 09:28 PM

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What I am meaning is, what about those changes you mention weaken the BDC? Why is a colder stratosphere or stronger PV bad for that circulation?


Actually it's the other way around (technically the relationship is bi-modal and runs both ways). A stronger BDC pumps more O^3 into the polar stratosphere, weakening the thermal gradient hence weakening the PV via the thermal wind laws, leaving it vulnerable to wave bombardment. The BDC is a very slow/low frequency engine, so it takes awhile to respond to ENSO/solar forcing.

It's fairly easy to predict the winter PV/NAM state using the state of the QBO, ENSO, BDC, and solar forcing. For example, we're currently in a current Niño/+QBO regime under a relatively strong BDC/weak solar max, which statistically correlates to a +NAM for December followed by a flip to a -NAM sometime during the second half of winter.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#11
Phil

Posted 05 October 2015 - 09:35 PM

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just a question what are CFC emissions ? I seen you message them but not sure what they were or are thanks phil


This basically sums it up.

http://www3.epa.gov/...ce/process.html
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#12
Phil

Posted 05 October 2015 - 09:49 PM

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This is a fantastic read, for anyone interested in the relationship between solar forcing, nitrous oxide/ozone, and sudden stratospheric warmings: http://onlinelibrary...jgrd.50486/full
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#13
Black Hole

Posted 05 October 2015 - 10:26 PM

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I'll try and read over some of these. So what does NAM stand for here? So do you think a sudden strat. warming is likely this winter? I think odds favor it but its of course hard to say.

 

Also, thanks for the other info, makes sense.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#14
Phil

Posted 06 October 2015 - 12:23 AM

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I'll try and read over some of these. So what does NAM stand for here? So do you think a sudden strat. warming is likely this winter? I think odds favor it but its of course hard to say.

Also, thanks for the other info, makes sense.


The NAM index (Northern Annular Mode) is basically a fully aggregated AO/NAO index. Much more efficient to use a single representative domain space, in my opinion. The SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is the southern hemispheric counterpart.

I agree that a SSW is possible, though if one does occur, it will probably happen later than usual (mid/late January?) given the antecedent shear stress associated w/ the +QBO.

Right now, I'm thinking December will be a nationwide torch under a +EPO/+NAM, January will be a transition month, while February will feature a -NAM. Question is whether the polar blocking/wave breaking will have a NPAC/EPO source or a NATL/NAO source.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#15
Black Hole

Posted 06 October 2015 - 11:05 AM

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The NAM index (Northern Annular Mode) is basically a fully aggregated AO/NAO index. Much more efficient to use a single representative domain space, in my opinion. The SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is the southern hemispheric counterpart.

I agree that a SSW is possible, though if one does occur, it will probably happen later than usual (mid/late January?) given the antecedent shear stress associated w/ the +QBO.

Right now, I'm thinking December will be a nationwide torch under a +EPO/+NAM, January will be a transition month, while February will feature a -NAM. Question is whether the polar blocking/wave breaking will have a NPAC/EPO source or a NATL/NAO source.

When will you be putting out any sort of winter outlook? 

 

Ok, I got that then and it makes sense. I also think we may have some blowtorch periods but I am still thinking. One thing I do think is likely is a cooler and wetter late winter/early spring for my part of the world. That almost always happens in strong ninos. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#16
weatherfan2012

Posted 06 October 2015 - 12:03 PM

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This basically sums it up.

http://www3.epa.gov/...ce/process.html

that was a great read and help explaned the cfcs alot better thanks phil.

#17
Phil

Posted 06 October 2015 - 11:01 PM

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When will you be putting out any sort of winter outlook?

Ok, I got that then and it makes sense. I also think we may have some blowtorch periods but I am still thinking. One thing I do think is likely is a cooler and wetter late winter/early spring for my part of the world. That almost always happens in strong ninos.


I've had my winter idea ready for about a week now, but haven't had time to post it yet. I'm blending 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1997-98, and 2006-07, with various weighting periods, to reflect what I suspect will be a fairly classic El Niño winter.

For the west, I believe any arctic potential will be relegated to November or January, with March being a wild card.
  • Sometimesdylan likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#18
Black Hole

Posted 07 October 2015 - 09:03 AM

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I've had my winter idea ready for about a week now, but haven't had time to post it yet. I'm blending 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1997-98, and 2006-07, with various weighting periods, to reflect what I suspect will be a fairly classic El Niño winter.

For the west, I believe any arctic potential will be relegated to November or January, with March being a wild card.

Ok, well post it when you can. I am interested to see what you post as those winter were pretty different for me. 72/73 for example was very cold and snowy while 97/98 didn't have much in the way of arctic air.

 

I will try and get something out by November, but it won't be super detailed. 


  • Sometimesdylan likes this

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#19
Phil

Posted 07 October 2015 - 09:14 AM

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Ok, well post it when you can. I am interested to see what you post as those winter were pretty different for me. 72/73 for example was very cold and snowy while 97/98 didn't have much in the way of arctic air.

I will try and get something out by November, but it won't be super detailed.


Thanks. I look forward to reading your thoughts.

Yeah I'm going to weight the analogs differently through the winter window based on how I suspect the pattern will unfold. I still have some tweaks to do, actually.
  • Sometimesdylan likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F