September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Shockingly thin skin.

 

I think it was an informative enough post in its own right, interesting to see how his forecasts shook out. And Jesse has been calling Mark warm biased for literally about 8 years.

 

Other than a small handful of long term people, I doubt most folks would even get the aim.

[Jesse]

Euro alert!!

[Jesse]

Gorgeous morning. PDX *may* have dipped into the 40s between hours. A full month earlier than last year if so.

[ShawniganLake]

42F for the low here. Might have had a shot at the 30s if not for the clouds and showers moving back in around 5am.

[Abbotsford_wx]

42F for the low here. Might have had a shot at the 30s if not for the clouds and showers moving back in around 5am.

 

Wow, pretty chilly. Only got down to 47F here.

 

Just had a heavy downpour... 3"/hr rates.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark's cold bias

 

[Deweydog]

Mark's cold bias

 

Couple of high cloud shockers in there.

[Jesse]

Everyone is having a lot of fun with Mark's surprisingly defensive blog post last night. Just to clarify, it comes as no surprise to me that he does fairly well with forecasting high and lows in the 0-1 day range. He is a very decent forecaster. Also, this summer exceeded most people's expectations in the short term, so it is also a pretty handy time to throw together stats like that to make it appear as if he in fact has a cold bias. Fun stuff. Jesse's been forever proven wrong. Lots to buzz about.

 

Any issue I have ever had with Mark's forecasting involves the fact that, when in doubt, Mark invariably shows the warmest case scenario in his 7-day forecasts, especially the latter half. Of course this is modified once he is forecasting for "tomorrow", but whenever there is any disagreement in the 4-7 day range, he will almost ALWAYS reflect the warmer runs on the back half of his 7-day. This is fact, and it makes sense considering Mark blatantly states that he does not like cool, rainy weather and heavily favors warm and dry. The longer range portion of his forecasts tend to be "optimistic".

 

Anyhow, just clarifying. My issue was never with Mark's short term forecasting abilities. Only that his 7 days tend to skew warm when there is any doubt. It's kind of amusing to see this all being brought up now considering I haven't been a regular contributor to the Fox 12 circus blog for a couple years, but I guess what I think of Mark REALLY matters to him.

[TT-SEA]

Of course you have to factor in the fact that Jesse hates warm weather so he will always gravitate to the colder, wetter solutions and get unreasonably upset when forecasters go the other way.

 

I can remember many times when Mark said he had backed off on high temps in the mid-range because the models were trending a certain way and he usually does this before other forecasters because he watches the model trends more closely.

 

This is clearly a case of 'kill the messenger' for a certain someone here... which has been a common theme for years.   And Mark is a very public messenger so he becomes the target of the attack.   Mark has been very diplomatic with him over the years... despite these attacks and accusations from someone who cares more than anyone should about statistics and the temperature at PDX.

 

Just my two cents!   

[Jesse]

Out of honest curiosity, do you have any specific instances where he has. Chris's forecasting work has shown that a lot of media outlets will skew to the NWS forecast mean or climo (if I have interpreted it properly).

I actually had a file set up on my computer where I was going to save a bunch of his 7-day forecasts that skewed warm at the end then compare them to what really happened, then I realized how insane that was and a lot of this stuff had died down anyway so I decided against it. It really doesn't matter that much to me. It is just something I have occasionally mentioned in passing, everyone else has made it a bigger deal than I ever did. It almost seems like Mark has a really fragile ego or something. If I was the best pro-met in Portland (he certainly is overall) I wouldn't give two shits what some long haired, hippie punk who is actually a reading tutor but poses as a teacher thinks of me.

 

To me it's almost become fun to see how furiously he reacts when I even suggest he has a warm bias. Last night's blog post was a reaction to ONE post I made on his blog (my first in a few years) telling people that September would likely end up cooler than Mark's warm bias suggests. I guess that really hurt his pride.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Everyone is having a lot of fun with Mark's surprisingly defensive blog post last night. Just to clarify, it comes as no surprise to me that he does fairly well with forecasting high and lows in the 0-1 day range. He is a very decent forecaster. Also, this summer exceeded most people's expectations in the short term, so it is also a pretty handy time to throw together stats like that to make it appear as if he in fact has a cold bias. Fun stuff. Jesse's been forever proven wrong. Lots to buzz about.

 

Any issue I have ever had with Mark's forecasting involves the fact that, when in doubt, Mark invariably shows the warmest case scenario in his 7-day forecasts, especially the latter half. Of course this is modified once he is forecasting for "tomorrow", but whenever there is any disagreement in the 4-7 day range, he will almost ALWAYS reflect the warmer runs on the back half of his 7-day. This is fact, and it makes sense considering Mark blatantly states that he does not like cool, rainy weather and heavily favors warm and dry. The longer range portion of his forecasts tend to be "optimistic".

 

Anyhow, just clarifying. My issue was never with Mark's short term forecasting abilities. Only that his 7 days tend to skew warm when there is any doubt. It's kind of amusing to see this all being brought up now considering I haven't been a regular contributor to the Fox 12 circus blog for a couple years, but I guess what I think of Mark REALLY matters to him.

 

Unfortunately over the years I have found that in general "cold solutions" in the long range tend to bust with much greater frequency than the warmer ones. Erring on the side of climo is a pretty safe if less interesting bet. 

 

I am old enough to remember Mark's early years. He had a strong cold bias back then, he learned and became the best forecaster in the PNW by a mile. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I actually had a file set up on my computer where I was going to save a bunch of his 7-day forecasts that skewed warm at the end then compare them to what really happened, then I realized how insane that was and a lot of this stuff had died down anyway so I decided against it. It really doesn't matter that much to me. It is just something I have occasionally mentioned in passing, everyone else has made it a bigger deal than I ever did. It almost seems like Mark has a really fragile ego or something. If I was the best pro-met in Portland (he certainly is overall) I wouldn't give two shits what some long haired, hippie punk who is actually a reading tutor but poses as a teacher thinks of me.

 

To me it's almost become fun to see how furiously he reacts when I even suggest he has a warm bias. Last night's blog post was a reaction to ONE post I made on his blog (my first in a few years) telling people that September would likely end up cooler than Mark's warm bias suggests. I guess that really hurt his pride.

 

I actually think he just thinks its fun to **** with you. I don't think his ego is fragile at all. 

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately over the years I have found that in general "cold solutions" in the long range tend to bust with much greater frequency than the warmer ones. Erring on the side of climo is a pretty safe if less interesting bet. 

 

I am old enough to remember Mark's early years. He had a strong cold bias back then, he learned and became the best forecaster in the PNW by a mile. 

 

Agreed.

 

Better than anyone up here as well.   

[ShawniganLake]

I actually had a file set up on my computer where I was going to save a bunch of his 7-day forecasts that skewed warm at the end then compare them to what really happened, then I realized how insane that was and a lot of this stuff had died down anyway so I decided against it. It really doesn't matter that much to me. It is just something I have occasionally mentioned in passing, everyone else has made it a bigger deal than I ever did. It almost seems like Mark has a really fragile ego or something. If I was the best pro-met in Portland (he certainly is overall) I wouldn't give two shits what some long haired, hippie punk who is actually a reading tutor but poses as a teacher thinks of me.

 

To me it's almost become fun to see how furiously he reacts when I even suggest he has a warm bias. Last night's blog post was a reaction to ONE post I made on his blog (my first in a few years) telling people that September would likely end up cooler than Mark's warm bias suggests. I guess that really hurt his pride.

Not sure if it was Mark's forecast or not but a few days back the fox 7 day forecast was showing low 80s for the coming weekend. Looks cooler now.

 

If you're not a regular contributor over there and you think it really bothers Mark, then why go out of you're way to bring up said bias the other day?

[TT-SEA]

Not sure if it was Mark's forecast or not but a few days back the fox 7 day forecast was showing low 80s for the coming weekend. Looks cooler now.

 

If you're not a regular contributor over there and you think it really bothers Mark, then why go out if you're way to bring up said bias the other day?

 

Models have trended way cooler... that was a good forecast based on the information at the time.     That is the best you can do... go with what the majority of the models are showing.  If the models change then you have to adjust.

[Deweydog]

I actually had a file set up on my computer where I was going to save a bunch of his 7-day forecasts that skewed warm at the end then compare them to what really happened, then I realized how insane that was and a lot of this stuff had died down anyway so I decided against it. It really doesn't matter that much to me. It is just something I have occasionally mentioned in passing, everyone else has made it a bigger deal than I ever did. It almost seems like Mark has a really fragile ego or something. If I was the best pro-met in Portland (he certainly is overall) I wouldn't give two shits what some long haired, hippie punk who is actually a reading tutor but poses as a teacher thinks of me.

 

To me it's almost become fun to see how furiously he reacts when I even suggest he has a warm bias. Last night's blog post was a reaction to ONE post I made on his blog (my first in a few years) telling people that September would likely end up cooler than Mark's warm bias suggests. I guess that really hurt his pride.

Yikes...

[Jesse]

Yikes...

Okay...

[Deweydog]

Okay...

Let's not get too carried away.

 

You've never backed any of your claims up while just about anyone who pays attention thinks he's the best out there. I think it just pisses you off he doesn't get as geeked about cold season stuff that probably causes him to lose out on a lot of sleep compared to his younger days. Old people can't stay up monitoring coast range snow shadow set ups like they used to...

[BLI snowman]

Mark frequently has something of a midrange extremes bias IMO, but I think it's tempered with age and is actually less noticeable with warm season events honestly. He's obviously a weather weenie at heart and he seems to still have a passion for cold/snow like the rest of us, in spite of it forcing him into 16 hour workdays whenever it actually happens. The trolling is pretty stupid. 

[Jesse]

I said my piece. Worth noting that I agree that he is the best in the area overall. I am ready to drop it now. I should have known better than to go post over there.

 

Anywho, how about that 12z Euro?

[TT-SEA]

'peace'

[Jesse]

Vigorous line of showers approaching the PDX metro.

 

I have to admit the weather the past few days really does remind me a bit of a first week of April type setup. Having this kind of cold air aloft during early April's sun angle doppleganger is pretty rare.

[ShawniganLake]

Heavy showers here currently at the work site (Maple Bay, BC. ) even a few rumbles of thunder.

[TT-SEA]

Rained all morning here while it was dry over the Seattle area.   Another .50 this morning.   More rain on tap for tomorrow and then again Sunday.   About as wet as it can get this time of year now.   Almost 5 inches since Saturday and 7 inches in the last 3 weeks.   

 

Next week has to be drier out here regardless of the pattern.   

 

18Z GFS is very nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/09/godzilla-el-nino-versus-blob-who-will.html

 

The blob is going to die.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rained all morning here while it was dry over the Seattle area.   Another .50 this morning.   More rain on tap for tomorrow and then again Sunday.   About as wet as it can get this time of year now.   Almost 5 inches since Saturday and 7 inches in the last 3 weeks.   

 

Next week has to be drier out here regardless of the pattern.   

 

18Z GFS is very nice.

 

I feel like this means I don't even want to look at the 18z...

[Deweydog]

I feel like this means I don't even want to look at the 18z...

Looks early fallish to me.

[TT-SEA]

I feel like this means I don't even want to look at the 18z...

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[Jesse]

Looks early fallish to me.

That's the worst news I've heard yet.

[Jesse]

I feel like this means I don't even want to look at the 18z...

I feel ya dawg. I don't want the glory that has descended upon us the last few days to ever end.

[Deweydog]

That's the worst news I've heard yet.

Weather is hell.

[Jesse]

Weather is hell.

Averagish weather to you tends to give us record warm months.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX scored a 68/50 day, barring any disastrous 6pm sunbreaks.

 

Not bad for 9/3.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like PDX scored a 68/50 day, barring any diastrous 6pm sunbreaks.

 

Not bad for 9/3.

 

Top tier.

[Deweydog]

Averagish weather to you tends to give us record warm months.

 

Didn't say it would be average, just early fallish.  The weather right now is early fallish.  Average weather for any one length of time is pretty unusual.  Weather is dynamic!  And biased!  

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty serious flooding in Friday Harbor today.

 

 

[Jesse]

Top tier.

It's all relative.

 

I haven't looked yet, but I'd bet their 8F negative departure for the day was their largest this year to date.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty serious flooding in Friday Harbor today.

 

 

 

Very interesting... that area mostly slopes down to the Sound there.      Surprised that it did not just run off.

[bainbridgekid]

Very interesting... that area mostly slopes down to the Sound there.      Surprised that it did not just run off.

Sounds like the storm drains were clogged with leaves after last weekend's windstorm.

 

It was definitely a pretty impressive looking slow moving cell that moved over that area around 10 AM this morning.

[Front Ranger]

Entertaining stuff today.