September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Alls I know is that if the weather dares to drop even a little below average for a couple weeks during ball season, we have to pay for it with at least a year or two of record breaking warmth.

 

Good to see you so levelheaded about it.

[Jesse]

Good to see you so levelheaded about it.

Just summarizing the first law of fallballdynamics.

[Front Ranger]

Just summarizing the first law of fallballdynamics.

 

Fall and ball rhyme. Cool!

[Deweydog]

Facts is facts. Not trying to be a contrarian (this time), but with all this warmth talk today, it's interesting to note that SEA is in the midst of a somewhat unusual cool streak - for highs, at least.

 

But lows are all that really matter, obviously.

 

They'll certainly be due for some warmth right soon.  

[Deweydog]

Fall and ball rhyme. Cool!

 

I feel bad for those losers who go down south to play winter ball.  No ring to that whatsoever.  

[TT-SEA]

They'll certainly be due for some warmth right soon.  

 

Sure hope so... this rain is getting old fast!     Still dumping here.   

[Deweydog]

Alls I know is that if the weather dares to drop even a little below average for a couple weeks during ball season, we have to pay for it with at least a year or two of record breaking warmth.

 

Rain outs are all the kids care about.  Believe it or not, very few people really care what the temperature is outside unless it's really, really hot or really, really cold. 

[Deweydog]

Sure hope so... this rain is getting old fast!     Still dumping here.   

 

Sprinkled here this evening on more than one occasion.  

[Front Ranger]

Rain outs are all the kids care about.  Believe it or not, very few people really care what the temperature is outside unless it's really, really hot or really, really cold. 

 

See, it's all about the kids, Jesse. Troughing = child misery. Celebrate fall ridging.

[Front Ranger]

They'll certainly be due for some warmth right soon.  

 

Only warm highs, though. 

 

Probably a bunch of 85/45 days coming up.

[Jesse]

See, it's all about the kids, Jesse. Troughing = child misery. Celebrate fall ridging.

You can see my signature.

[Front Ranger]

You can see my signature.

 

True. Saves lives, and saves childhoods.

[Deweydog]

Only warm highs, though.

 

Probably a bunch of 85/45 days coming up.

95/35.

[Front Ranger]

95/35.

 

Too much UHI. OLM could pull it off.

[Deweydog]

Too much UHI. OLM could pull it off.

Oly will be 102/22.

[TT-SEA]

Rain outs are all the kids care about.  Believe it or not, very few people really care what the temperature is outside unless it's really, really hot or really, really cold. 

 

 

You mean there are people out there who don't get wrapped-around-the-axle endlessly about the temperature of the air at the Portland airport and how that compares to the relatively short historical record since the European settlers arrived??   What do they do with their time?   What do they worry about?   Their kids' health and well-being??   Come on.

[TT-SEA]

I like 00Z GFS for next week... but doubt it has a handle on the upstream activity.

[Deweydog]

You mean there are people out there who don't get wrapped-around-the-axle endlessly about the temperature of the air at the Portland airport and how that compares to the relatively short historical record since the European settlers arrived?? What do they do with their time? What do they worry about? Their kids' health and well-being?? Come on.

Irony called and wants its best example of itself ever back.

[TT-SEA]

Irony called and wants its best example of itself ever back.

 

You are becoming too predictable.   I was actually trying to guess your response and I was pretty close.    And the shoe fits very well in both cases.        

[Deweydog]

You are becoming too predictable. I was actually trying to guess your response and I was pretty close. And the shoe fits very well in both cases.

Becoming? If there is one immutable truth, after almost 10 years we all do predictability really ******* well.

[TT-SEA]

You're right.

 

All this time we fret about things like statistics or data, when we could be enjoying healthy and sane weather. I will be putting those who spend too much time writing their mental prognosis into Mod Preview so they can enjoy what little summer ridging we have left, as this summer has been horridly wet in North Bend, which is where most people live.

 

Just reporting what is happening.   It was very dry and now its abnormally wet!   In Seattle as well.  

[Kayla]

**Historic cool spell in progress**

 

Low of 63 at PDX this morning. #53 for the year. We are even racking them up during this record breaking cold stretch!

 

*#52* Slow down turbo. PDX is already down to 60º tonight with the cold front still yet to pass through.

[stuffradio]

It was raining at a rate of 1 inch an hour just a while ago around here.

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian says the 00Z GFS is wrong for next week.   12Z ECMWF agreed.   

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[Deweydog]

0z sucks fall balls in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

0z sucks fall balls in the long range.

 

 

Thought you did not look beyond 180 hours?

[Deweydog]

Thought you did not look beyond 180 hours?

I think that's Flatiron.

[Jesse]

*#52* Slow down turbo. PDX is already down to 60º tonight with the cold front still yet to pass through.

I see that. Nice, sharp cold front.

[Front Ranger]

I think that's Flatiron.

 

Yup. Except for the CFS, which as we all know becomes more accurate once you get out past 2,500 hrs.

[Front Ranger]

SEA is at 58, one degree cooler than they were at 3 pm.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks very different for next week... sort of a strange pattern.    

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015090200!!chart.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Convergence Zone making for a very wet morning here.

[Jesse]

Coolish morning with a rainy smell to the air.

 

#feelslikefall

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little bit of light rain overnight and a some scattered showers this morning. Nice to see. My shaded front lawn is beginning to green up a bit already.

[Jesse]

A little bit of light rain overnight and a some scattered showers this morning. Nice to see. My shaded front lawn is beginning to green up a bit already.

The ridging in the long range should put a quick end to that nonsense.

[Tyler Mode]

Upper 30s at Paradise on Mt. Rainier this morning.  No doubt snow just a little bit further up

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=PVC55&num=72&raw=0

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks great for next week.    

 

A little iffy for the holiday weekend though.

 

Already at 1.25 inches of rain for the month on the morning of the 2nd... and over 4 inches since Saturday.    

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian jumped on board with ridging for next week now...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[MossMan]

Just a couple pics from the windstorm, this is what I came home to the day after. I have other pics but they are apparently too big to upload.

[richard mann]

My second most favorite month of the year!  Right behind October.

 

Third for me. In line with the advent at the equinox of decreasing light more generally, the potential for new and fresh cold to begin showing up at all. Second more October, more so essentially. And then most favorite for myself November, with the stronger chance and potential for snow north of the Oregon / California border.

 

I guess I'm alone in my love for limited light and low sun angles.

 

Certainly an understandable appreciation. 

 

— With me it's more, low moon angles, with the main light from the sun shining on it decreasing.