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October 2015 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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With 1/3 of Meteorological Autumn just about over, we are about to start of one of the fastest cooling months of the year.  A majority of the global models are indicating a turn to a much colder/stormier regime as we head into the first week of October.

 

The GFS/GGEM/JMA are showing some sort of system(s) to traverse the central CONUS sometime during the first full week of October that may tug down some serious Autumnal-like Chill for the lower 48.  I've been mentioning how expansive the snow cover has built up in North America, especially near AK/Yukon/NW Territories.  I believe we will have quite the cool down coming as we head into October as the Alaskan Ridge unloads some of the early season cold that has been brewing up that way.

 

It's quite possible that the northern Plains may have there first snows of the season which isn't uncommon.  If the pattern can develop into an all out assault, we are going to get a huge "wake up call" by Nature after all this warmth we have been experiencing.

 

Let's discuss....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015092512/jma_apcpn_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015092518/gfs_apcpn_us_40.png

 

 

 

 

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12z EPS already starting to hint at colder anomalies building in western Canada with eyes into the central CONUS.

 

Day 8...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015092512/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

 

Day 10...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015092512/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

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CFSv2 starting to change it's tune for this month.  A little late to respond, but trending the way as to the other Global models.

 

Here was Sept 1st Temp forecast...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150901.201510.gif

 

September 10th...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150910.201510.gif

 

September 25th...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150925.201510.gif

 

Notice the cold near AK being washed away and the dome of warmth building in NW NAMER.

 

Major SOI Crash also a good indicator of a colder October on the way.  Probably the reason why the models were flipping back and forth over the last week or so.

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Monthlies are tropical december through february....

When watching the CFSv2, especially the monthlies, I follow the trend of the model leading up to the Target month.  For example, in the beginning of August, the CFSv2 had a cooler September for the central CONUS but completely reversed that trend as we closed out August.  End result, September was a torch.

 

In the beginning of September, the CFSv2 had a torch for the central/eastern CONUS...latest run...see below...completely flipped...end result will most likely be much colder...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150928.201510.gif

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The NWS has been lowering the highs for this week everyday leading up to it it seems. I remember lots of 70s and even maybe an 80 degree temp initially, but those have been wiped away by mid 60s the rest of the week and on Saturday we might have our first sub 60 degree high of the season. It's going to feel chilly!!

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It's raw, wet, windy and chilly out there this morning!  Forgot to close the windows last night and temps inside my house got down into the 60's...ooops!  What a complete flip compared to where I was just 2 days ago.  

 

My grid forecast temps also have been lowered for Fri-Sun into the 50's for highs.  We'll see if we can get a stretch of daytime highs in the 50's.  Under clear skies, night time temps should dip pretty low with pockets of upper 30's in the burbs???  Leaves on the tree's should start to change color more rapidly I'd assume.

 

 

FWIW, here is something I just saw JB post regarding the CFSv2 temp forecast for Sept and actual temps...

 

Can you really Trust its temp forecast for the Winter??? Watch the trends heading into the Target month.

 

CQD3oaXUYAACGlv.png

CQD3oRPUsAAj3tV.png'

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Been paying attention to the pattern over in East Asia/Japan and both the GFS/EURO keep a very active/stormy pattern.  A major Typhoon just hit the islands off the coast of Japan on the 28th, there may be another Super Typhoon in the 1-2 week range.  Overall, it seems like there won't be a boring weather pattern.  Let's see how this all plays out on this side of the Globe and where the storm track sets up.

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12z GFS has the remnants of Tropical Storm Joaquin heading into the eastern GL region on Sun/Mon.  Some precip may fall as far west as IL/WI border.  It's certainly going to be a windy weekend around here with gusty winds down the lake.  Might this be the first part of the new LRC pattern.  Let's see.

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12z GFS has the remnants of Tropical Storm Joaquin heading into the eastern GL region on Sun/Mon.  Some precip may fall as far west as IL/WI border.  It's certainly going to be a windy weekend around here with gusty winds down the lake.  Might this be the first part of the new LRC pattern.  Let's see.

Anymore updates from Lezak about the LRC?

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Anymore updates from Lezak about the LRC?

It's still a blend of the Old vs New pattern.  I'd be paying attn to whatever happens sometime around the 5th-7th of this month as I believe the new pattern should be evolving then.

 

12z Euro keeps it stormy and cool in the eastern CONUS through the next 10 days.

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I'm surprised how far west GFS has Joaquin coming. Maybe even get some high clouds over here. Does the Euro have it further east?

No, much farther east actually...models have a hell of a time trying to figure out what is going to happen with this piece of energy.

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I find it rather amazing how well the CFS can sniff out a pattern weeks, sometimes months in advance.  I recall looking at the CFS's Long Range 500mb Thickness maps back in early September for North America to get an idea of what the pattern would look like to start October.  Well, low and behold, the 12z Euro Ensemble is seeing that trough developing south of the Aleutians, jet cutting underneath the NW NAMER Ridge, creating a downstream Trough for the Eastern CONUS.

 

Day 8...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015092912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

 

Day 9...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015092912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

Day 10...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015092912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

I believe what will be a common theme, for the 3rd year in a row, is a Hudson Bay vortex that will be making appearances throughout the cold season.  I just hope we can get an active southern branch to meet the north branch and create some size able storm systems.

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CFSv2 heading towards the SST Analogs for October...

 

Week 1 & 2...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20150928.NAsfcT.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20150928.NA.gif

 

 

Week 3 & 4...I suspect the warming to pull back farther west more towards NW NAMER and have more cooling in the eastern CONUS

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20150928.NA.gif

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20150928.NAsfcT.gif

 

You can see the model def correcting towards the NW NAMER/West Coast ridge.

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12z GFS takes Joaquin out to sea...what a debacle...King Euro may have just spanked both GFS/GGEM.  Nonetheless, a ton of precip will still fall in the SE where it is needed...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100112/gfs_apcpn_us_27.png

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The difference in placement for Hurricane Joaquin on the GGEM vs. the GFS is unreal.  At just 72 hours out they are several hundred miles apart.

 

GGEM

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

GFS

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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euro is saying goodbye to whatever cold we were looking for in the medium range

Euro missed the trough coming through this week/weekend during the same medium range period over a week ago.  GFS had it all along, but maybe this time the Euro is right???  I've noticed the model has issues handling the ridges near NW NAMER, maybe it is a feedback problem due to the warm waters in the NE PAC.

 

JMA Weeklies came in today and they have a trough centered over the Plains Week 1, then over the Lakes Week 2....Ridging and warmth along the West Coast/NW NAMER.

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GFS/GGEM/JMA/EURO all showing some piece of energy digging into the Desert Southwest region early next week.  It's nice to see these systems forming in that part of the lower 48 right when the new LRC is forming.  The CFS model had been indicating this pattern for some time now.  Let's see how this wave evolves.

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GFS/GGEM/JMA/EURO all showing some piece of energy digging into the Desert Southwest region early next week.  It's nice to see these systems forming in that part of the lower 48 right when the new LRC is forming.  The CFS model had been indicating this pattern for some time now.  Let's see how this wave evolves.

Yup, GFS has a pretty nice looking storm for the midwest late next week. I hope its the beginning of the new pattern.

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Ok clearly that is a joke. It also says clocks go forward.

Not a joke, it was my mistake...should have checked that before posting.   I don't know why I thought it that graphic was for the end of Day Light Savings when clocks go back 1 hour this time of year and Spring Forward in March.

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12z GFS takes Joaquin out to sea...what a debacle...King Euro may have just spanked both GFS/GGEM.  Nonetheless, a ton of precip will still fall in the SE where it is needed...

 

 

Correction, they don't need anymore rain there! Eastern SC especially has had way too much in the last couple days. What drought was there is long gone now.

 

Storm is still moving SW at this hour...

 

In our news, another day of NE wind and 50s. Temperature spread hasn't been more than 6° the last two days. Color in the trees is accelerating fast now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Correction, they don't need anymore rain there! Eastern SC especially has had way too much in the last couple days. What drought was there is long gone now.

 

Storm is still moving SW at this hour...

 

In our news, another day of NE wind and 50s. Temperature spread hasn't been more than 6° the last two days. Color in the trees is accelerating fast now.

True, SC has had a lot of precip just last week.  However, in general the region has been dry...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drmon_small.gif

 

 

It's very rare to see such a powerful Cat 4 Hurricane in an El Nino season.  I bet folks along the East Coast are glad its going out to sea.  Although, the shores up and down the coast will have tons of erosion from all the wave action.

 

I don't recall a long stretch of days such as this week where winds howl down the lake.  We may have literally 7 days straight of winds down the lake.  Only if it was Winter!  The year when Sandy hit the East Coast we were caught up in a "blocky" pattern and I remember we had like 3-4 days of strong NE winds.

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NAM run this evening drives Joaquin into SC and parks the low over the state through the end of the run. Even throws back Atlantic moisture well into Indiana.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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To put the Heat or Not, that is the real question this weekend.  Kinda nippy last night.  These howling NE winds cool the house off much more effectively than light winds.  I dunno, I may have to turn it on for the 1st time this season if we see highs near 60F today/Sat/Sun.

 

GFS trying to pump up temps near 80F for the Hawks Home Opener next Wednesday.  The weather in Pittsburgh, PA looks delightful for the NL Wild Card game (If that should be the case).  Go Cubs!

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