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October 2015 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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I got a feeling it will probably be November before we see flakes here.

 

Down to 44° here. Finally cleared out after a very overcast and windy day.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like some of us might see our first snow flakes on Thursday

00z Euro is painting a couple inches of snow near Hayward and places near by.  Prob a bit overdone, but it does fall overnight which could be possible.  You may get some wrap around snow showers in your area.

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Looks like some of us might see our first snow flakes on Thursday

 

Yeah maybe you will! With temps in the mid 30s at this time.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Arctic temps starting to crash again...AO is supposed to head positive for the first part of November.  Wonder if that is just nature loading up the cold before it will come south into the lower 48 sometime in November???

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

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Looking forward to another widespread soaker in the region from the Tue/Wed system.  Pretty large system that will impact a wide range of the eastern CONUS.  I hope to see some breezy conditions along with it to blow the leaves off the trees quicker.

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Both GFS/EURO are developing an active pattern to start hitting the west coast as systems start targeting the Rockies.  Looks like a great SW Flow pattern may start evolving as a ridge develops in the East over the next 5-15 days.  The Euro Weeklies last week picked this up and seems to be lining up now.  The Rockies will be getting some heavy snows and parts of NE may see there first snows in the early part of November.  Some of the individual Euro Ensembles have snows in the western NE over the next 2 weeks.  I like the looks of the new LRC developing this year.

 

-PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern poses a great set up for systems to target the central CONUS.  Especially, if there is a west-based Greenland block.  Euro EPS picking up on that.

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Does anyone else think it is very odd to have such a Huge ridge developing Week 1-2 in the East/SE, especially during a Strong El NINO???  Doesn't bode well for storms up the EC if this is part of the LRC pattern this year.  Good pattern for storm systems in the west/central CONUS.  I'm really interested to see next months JAMSTEC mode's output for the Dec-Feb period.  I think that model was the only one which had the coldest temps centered farther back west in the central states...might be catching onto something.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

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Does anyone else think it is very odd to have such a Huge ridge developing Week 1-2 in the East/SE, especially during a Strong El NINO??? Doesn't bode well for storms up the EC if this is part of the LRC pattern this year. Good pattern for storm systems in the west/central CONUS. I'm really interested to see next months JAMSTEC mode's output for the Dec-Feb period. I think that model was the only one which had the coldest temps centered farther back west in the central states...might be catching onto something.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

It is very odd to see the ridge there. I have no conclusions yet as to why though.

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Just Northwest of us in Central Nebraska.  Liking the trends.  Thanks for the map Tom.

Sure thing...I think the models are beginning to pick up on the -EPO that will be building in and NW/Western Canada loads up with some  cold air while the Pacific systems enter the picture.  Interesting setup.

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Models have really solidified with a nice rain event for eastern Iowa Tuesday through early Wednesday.  October may turn out pretty decent after not getting a drop of rain for the first three weeks.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Does anyone else think it is very odd to have such a Huge ridge developing Week 1-2 in the East/SE, especially during a Strong El NINO???  Doesn't bode well for storms up the EC if this is part of the LRC pattern this year.  Good pattern for storm systems in the west/central CONUS.  I'm really interested to see next months JAMSTEC mode's output for the Dec-Feb period.  I think that model was the only one which had the coldest temps centered farther back west in the central states...might be catching onto something.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

These maps are always impressive in the way it shows how much of the globe is going to be above normal again. It's easy to see why Earth keeps breaking records for warmest month/ year recorded time and time again. 

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12z EPS/Control have a wintry look for the northern Plains for the first week of November.  The Control went nuts and pounded the Black Hills/Rockies and NW NE....even the lower lakes in OH/IN and points East showed snow from another system.  Seems like the modeling may be favoring a quite colder pattern as we flip the Calendar.

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Euro Weeklies not skipping a beat with keeping an active southern storm track.  Cali/4 corners region should have their fair share of stormy weather next month.  The entire month, the model keeps ridging in the N PAC which may shift the storm track farther south on the west coast.

 

 

LOL. Knew you were gonna chime in about that.

It's not even close to being above normal where he lives, except maybe Sunday/Monday.  Numerous days in the 40's near MSP/GRB area.

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Euro Weeklies not skipping a beat with keeping an active southern storm track. Cali/4 corners region should have their fair share of stormy weather next month. The entire month, the model keeps ridging in the N PAC which may shift the storm track farther south on the west coast.

 

 

It's not even close to being above normal where he lives, except maybe Sunday/Monday. Numerous days in the 40's near MSP/GRB area.

Live 20 miles from rochester. Average high is 49 right now. Average low is 31 right now. still want to argue we are not going to be above average?

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Live 20 miles from rochester. Average high is 49 right now. Average low is 31 right now. still want to argue we are not going to be above average?

Besides nightime lows, your not that far off to having normal temps through the next 10 days.  Areas south, including my area, we will prob end up above normal especially if that system in early November pumps up the ridge out ahead.

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