2015-2016 Winter Outlook

[OKwx2k4]

You may want one of these....

Yes sir! I remember that day very well. Will most definitely take a repeat.

[OKwx2k4]

Both 76-77 and 77-78 were weak ninos, though.

Yeah. I'm aware of that. It would just be really cool to see something like that happen.

[Tom]

Here is another Winter Outlook from someone I saw post on FB group...

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

So I have a question...

 

What are you guys thoughts on the qbo and how it may effect the winter? It's something I really don't know enough about and have a hard time understanding it's purpose the way I've seen it explained. Thanks in advance.

[Money]

Good to see a lot of you guys around here yet

[OKwx2k4]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096/photo/1

 

Nice tweet from Ryan Maue. If the warmest model shows this, wonder what all of the others would do if they could go out that far?

[Geos]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096/photo/1

 

Nice tweet from Ryan Maue. If the warmest model shows this, wonder what all of the others would do if they could go out that far?

 

I'll take near average snowfall!

[Niko]

Here is another Winter Outlook from someone I saw post on FB group...

Nice, I'm in the purple category. Hopefully it vertifies.

[Niko]

Leaves are really starting to change colors here. Excellent scenery. Almost near peak. Hello Autumn!!!

[Tom]

Here is an interesting article regarding the "Blob"...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3154

 

 

The new JMA Monthlies came in overnight and they are showing a warm November pretty much for the entire nation.  Dec-Jan is when the model sees's the GOA trough, southern branch coming out of the south and Ridging over the top.

 

JAMSTEC also came out with it's new October run.  It's still showing a colder look for the Plains and SE with wet conditions centered in the Plains/Midwest.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

 

Look at Cali, getting pounded with precip.  SST's still looking the same but a little cooler near the NW NAMER coastline from last month.  This is the second month in a row it's cooled this part of the NE PAC which is why I think the colder air will be centered farther back west this year, unlike last year.  The Cali/Baja coastline still torchy which should fuel storm systems.  Modiki El Nino still on track in central PACIFIC.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

 

[Maxim]

Just for fun, here's CPC's winter outlook. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2015-16-winter-outlook

[OKwx2k4]

Just for fun, here's CPC's winter outlook. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2015-16-winter-outlook

I don't even know why I wasted the data to click that link. I knew what it said without looking. Lol. If CPC ever shows more negative anomalies than positive ones in a winter forecast, I'll eat my hat. :-)

[OKwx2k4]

Here is an interesting article regarding the "Blob"...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3154

 

 

The new JMA Monthlies came in overnight and they are showing a warm November pretty much for the entire nation. Dec-Jan is when the model sees's the GOA trough, southern branch coming out of the south and Ridging over the top.

 

JAMSTEC also came out with it's new October run. It's still showing a colder look for the Plains and SE with wet conditions centered in the Plains/Midwest.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

 

Look at Cali, getting pounded with precip. SST's still looking the same but a little cooler near the NW NAMER coastline from last month. This is the second month in a row it's cooled this part of the NE PAC which is why I think the colder air will be centered farther back west this year, unlike last year. The Cali/Baja coastline still torchy which should fuel storm systems. Modiki El Nino still on track in central PACIFIC.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

Great post. Looks like no cold November though. :-( I hope December through March are exciting though. Glad to see the useful anomalies continuing their slide westward also. I think a guaranteed -NAO would make things even better for all of us.

[Maxim]

I don't even know why I wasted the data to click that link. I knew what it said without looking. Lol. If CPC ever shows more negative anomalies than positive ones in a winter forecast, I'll eat my hat. :-)

yeah they tend to have a warm bias... looks like they're just going with strong nino climo.

[Geos]

The link to the Blob vs. El Niño article Tom posted is well worth reading. Probably the best written on the topic I've seen.

 

The big thing will be will the ridge act to deflect the likely strong storms from the Pacific northward towards Alaska and the Yukon or will the ridge get cut off and allow the storms to move into California...?

 

The above maps suggest a sub tropical jet will be able to punch through and allow storms to hit drought stricken areas, but yet allow a NW flow to occur further into the continent. Something tells me the whole West Coast of the continent won't see above normal precipitation - that would be more like a La Niña pattern.

 

Even if the El Niño signal doesn't look like a true Modoki, the winter precipitation and temperature anomalies may end up looking like it in the end - all due to the Blob that will likely survive for several more months yet.

[Yerf]

LOT on the EL Nino

El Nino continues to strengthen and is forecast to become very strong this winter. There have only been 2 very strong El Nino events in the modern era, both of which were extraordinarily warm with below average snowfall locally. Even previous strong El Nino events have generally been warm with below average snowfall. However, because there have only been 2 very strong El Nino events in recent history, the sample size is too small to conclusively say this winter's weather will... be similar, especially since water temperatures in other portions of the Pacific vary greatly from the previous 2 strong El Nino events. It is also important to keep in mind that even during abnormally warm winters with not much snow, there can be cold periods and snowstorms. Having said that, the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center is forecasting enhanced probabilities of it being a warmer than average winter with below average precipitation.

 

​

[NEJeremy]

Jim Flowers had a pretty funny post this morning where apparently he found the analog he is going to use after looking through over the last 100+ years of data. It's looking good for at least our area!

 

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist?fref=ts

[Tom]

Dr. Judah Cohen was on the TWC last night explaining his Siberian Snow Cover Theory.  He mentioned that over the last 60 or so years since we have had sufficient recorded data from the oceans, he said there were only 2 Strong/Super El Nino's that he could use as an analog for this upcoming winter ('97-98 & '82-'83) and both El Nino's had an increased Snow Cover in Siberia during the month of October.  Both of those Winter's were warm Winters in the East.  However, he mentioned he wasn't convinced using those 2 year's as analogs bc there wasn't enough evidence of past history to suggest we may be heading that way towards Winter.

 

IMO, I think we are heading towards uncharted territory with the amount of warm waters in the N PAC as well as the Strong strength of the El NINO, this type of oceanic pattern in itself has never happened before.  It's going to be an interesting season.

[Tom]

Jim Flowers had a pretty funny post this morning where apparently he found the analog he is going to use after looking through over the last 100+ years of data. It's looking good for at least our area!

 

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist?fref=ts

I like this Quote: "The nose of above normal into central nebraska reflects a rockies/plains trof and panhandle "hook" type storms that form in tx panhandle and hook northeast."

 

 

 

The Euro Ensembles are picking up on this pattern as the new LRC develops as we close out October and head into November.  I've also been watching the CFS model and its consistently illustrating a trough over the west/central CONUS and ridge over the East.  We may have a strong SE ridge this season if this plays out.

[OKwx2k4]

I like this Quote: "The nose of above normal into central nebraska reflects a rockies/plains trof and panhandle "hook" type storms that form in tx panhandle and hook northeast."

 

 

The Euro Ensembles are picking up on this pattern as the new LRC develops as we close out October and head into November. I've also been watching the CFS model and its consistently illustrating a trough over the west/central CONUS and ridge over the East. We may have a strong SE ridge this season if this plays out.

If there was a 2 thumbs up button on here I'd give it to this post! I'd be tickled to death with that pattern as long as the SE ridge gets squashed a little and those storms jump on I35 in West Texas and stay there until they hit eastern Oklahoma!

[Geos]

Jim Flowers had a pretty funny post this morning where apparently he found the analog he is going to use after looking through over the last 100+ years of data. It's looking good for at least our area!

 

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist?fref=ts

 

We might see a pattern never seen before during an strong El Niño.

 

Dr. Judah Cohen was on the TWC last night explaining his Siberian Snow Cover Theory.  He mentioned that over the last 60 or so years since we have had sufficient recorded data from the oceans, he said there were only 2 Strong/Super El Nino's that he could use as an analog for this upcoming winter ('97-98 & '82-'83) and both El Nino's had an increased Snow Cover in Siberia during the month of October.  Both of those Winter's were warm Winters in the East.  However, he mentioned he wasn't convinced using those 2 year's as analogs bc there wasn't enough evidence of past history to suggest we may be heading that way towards Winter.

 

IMO, I think we are heading towards uncharted territory with the amount of warm waters in the N PAC as well as the Strong strength of the El NINO, this type of oceanic pattern in itself has never happened before.  It's going to be an interesting season.

 

I think we are heading for uncharted territory. The "Blob's" influence will not want to give up and the El Niño will want to charge the southern jet stream up.

[Tom]

We might see a pattern never seen before during an strong El Niño.

 

 

I think we are heading for uncharted territory. The "Blob's" influence will not want to give up and the El Niño will want to charge the southern jet stream up.

The fact that the N PAC waters were cooler during the '82-'83 & '97-'98 Strong El NINO's, it could be a valid reason why there wasn't any polar air connection from the north during those seasons.  IMO, the Blob will definitely have some influence into the Polar Jet.  Now, can we have nature somehow combine both of them and create a cold/snowy pattern...that is the question.

[Geos]

The fact that the N PAC waters were cooler during the '82-'83 & '97-'98 Strong El NINO's, it could be a valid reason why there wasn't any polar air connection from the north during those seasons.  IMO, the Blob will definitely have some influence into the Polar Jet.  Now, can we have nature somehow combine both of them and create a cold/snowy pattern...that is the question.

 

Maybe end up with a SW flow pattern somehow? 

I think the El Niño of 09-10 had a SW flow pattern. Snowy winter, not incredible cold.

[WBadgersW]

Time to get back into things.

[OKwx2k4]

Maybe end up with a SW flow pattern somehow?

I think the El Niño of 09-10 had a SW flow pattern. Snowy winter, not incredible cold.

Averaged top 5 cold in my area. It was pretty incredible to me but I'm in eastern Oklahoma.

[OKwx2k4]

Today's edition of the CFSV2 snow maps show snow accumulations in parts of OK from 11/30 to 01/12. Wow. That's about as clear of a long range cold signal as there could be for my neighborhood.

[WI AOS Student Tanner]

The latest winter forecast: http://www.midwestweather.org/2015/10/official-midwest-weather-winter.html

[james1976]

The latest winter forecast: http://www.midwestweather.org/2015/10/official-midwest-weather-winter.html

I could see it being warmer than normal with less clippers, but more potential winter storms....as you said. It would be great to get some wound up systems. Haven't had much of those in the last few winters over here. Been a lot of clippers and we have done well with those but I'm looking forward to some classic winter storms. I'm hoping that happens this year. Bring it!

[Geos]

The latest winter forecast: http://www.midwestweather.org/2015/10/official-midwest-weather-winter.html

 

I like the overall idea that the beginning of winter will probably see the most above normal temperatures with El Niño coming off its peak, then a general retreat to the north of the warm anomalies. A pretty logical guess that it will dry out a bit as the winter goes on as well too - although most of the snow could fall after Christmas and New Years.

[Geos]

After seeing the latest sea surface temperature anomaly maps - I can see how a jet stream like this might set up this winter.

With a primary moisture transport into the southwest. 

 

[OKwx2k4]

After seeing the latest sea surface temperature anomaly maps - I can see how a jet stream like this might set up this winter.

With a primary moisture transport into the southwest.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1_101815.png

This is becoming a very viable solution in my mind as well. Leaves Cali in the dry up until likely the latest parts of the winter which is unfortunate. That outcome is also by no means warm for winter. What reanalysis I have done seems to agree with the pattern you have shown as well. This is becoming a very interesting El Nino and should be an interesting winter.

[Geos]

The usual thing that is happening now is that autumns preceding strong El Niño winters heavily favor colder than normal autumns. Which hasn't been the case so far this autumn. We're in uncharted territory with regards to the El Niño and the warmer than normal eastern North Pacific.

 

Hoosier on Amwx weather did a little digging and only found 2 seasons that somewhat resemble the conditions going on now and both of them ended up colder than normal winters for a big part of the country.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46551-winter-2015-16-discussion/?p=3729450

 

Throw in the fact were really low with solar activity and we're really looking at a unknown for this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

The usual thing that is happening now is that autumns preceding strong El Niño winters heavily favor colder than normal autumns. Which hasn't been the case so far this autumn. We're in uncharted territory with regards to the El Niño and the warmer than normal eastern North Pacific.

 

Hoosier on Amwx weather did a little digging and only found 2 seasons that somewhat resemble the conditions going on now and both of them ended up colder than normal winters for a big part of the country.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46551-winter-2015-16-discussion/?p=3729450

 

Throw in the fact were really low with solar activity and we're really looking at a unknown for this winter.

Thanks for the link. Good post.

 

I'll also add that I have looked at some other similar years as far as the patterns go and they also proved to end up both cold and very wintry for a large area of the US. I think we're heading in the right direction. Also if a true -NAO develops, it should serve to make this winter even more exciting.

[Geos]

Thanks for the link. Good post.

 

I'll also add that I have looked at some other similar years as far as the patterns go and they also proved to end up both cold and very wintry for a large area of the US. I think we're heading in the right direction. Also if a true -NAO develops, it should serve to make this winter even more exciting.

 

There will be chances for huge storms if this is the case!

[james1976]

Im really hoping for some powerhouse storms this winter that will hit all of us. Thatis where the real excitement is!

[Maxim]

I'd be more surprised if we have record breaking cold than record breaking warmth this winter. This warm fall that we've had so far was a surprise to me too, so who knows.

[Tom]

I'd be more surprised if we have record breaking cold than record breaking warmth this winter. This warm fall that we've had so far was a surprise to me too, so who knows.

I have to agree with that.  I didn't think October would end up so warm given the SST Analogs almost all suggested a higher probability of it being much colder.  Will have to see how November ends up becoming.

[clintbeed1993]

Everybody should check out this site if you are interested in finding some fantastic data.  You can look up snowfall totals for each month going all the way back to the late 1800's.  It also allows you to see which days the snowstorms occurred on and how much snow fell.

 

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/#

[Geos]

Phil was saying the same thing about uncharted territory in his winter forecast post.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/978-winter-forecast/

 

Thanks for pointing that post out.

I do think it will be a slow start to winter personally in this region - or in other words "tame" compared to later in the winter. 

 

You sure don't hear the media outlets mentioning that this El Niño is not like the 82-83 or the 97-98. Their winter forecasts including NOAA's is just a broad-brushing.

 

---

 

Anyone catch the SE ridge looking to set up shop?

 

 

That really goes against El Niño late Autumns.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, Geos, I like that there isn't really a mold so to speak for what this year fits into. There are hints of a lot of different years in there. Will be interesting as the pattern shuffles again over the next 10-12 days (both gfs and euro are in fair agreement I think) to see how or if a cold shot can take a run at that ridge. In that instance you revert back to an 09-10 look but what comes after is quite a mystery. Still waiting to get my 1st frost into the books down here. Hopefully by the 10th the wait will be over.