2015-2016 Winter Outlook

[OKwx2k4]

Phil was saying the same thing about uncharted territory in his winter forecast post.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/978-winter-forecast/

I can't really make some of the years fit that were used in his forecast. I have great respect though for the amount of work and thought that were put into that. This really is pretty much the ultimate wild card year in my opion. If ENSO 1.2 continues to die out through this next month then a lot of people are going to end up tossing their forecasts before winter even starts. Especially those that used 1997-98 and 1982-83. Just my thoughts at the moment.

[OKwx2k4]

Larry Cosgrove has a good forecast out this morning. It is so far the one that I agree with the most. If I can link it later I will. It can be found on his Facebook page if you follow him. He really weights his variables very nicely and explains them quite thoroughly. Just a really well balanced and weighted forecast.

[Geos]

Anyone see this El Niño graphic?! I have to laugh at what the media outlets come up with. lol

 

[Geos]

On a serious note, if the current storm track is any indication of the El Niño times, it is definitely not typical.

 

[OKwx2k4]

On a serious note, if the current storm track is any indication of the El Niño times, it is definitely not typical.

 

http://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/flattened-jet-stream-aims-storm-track-at-west-coast.jpg

I agree. However everyone writing a forecast just shrugs and says "El Nino Winter blah blah blah..."

[Geos]

The Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System or CanSIPS has come out with a new January outlook and it looks harsh regarding cold!

 

 

 

 

February 500mb.

 

[Tom]

The December Outlook looks a lot colder than its previous October run...especially out west...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

Still looks wet as well...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_apcpna_month_namer_1.png

[Geos]

Another winter outlook. Focuses on western NY, but they mention the whole nation.

Should good idea thrown around in the discussion. 

 

http://flxweather.com/2015-2016-finger-lakes-winter-forecast/

[Maxim]

Temp anomaly doesn't make sense given the 500 mb pattern that's being depicted. 

[Geos]

This would be an awesome gradient pattern for winter - if you're not too far towards the southeast.

 

 

[Geos]

Buffaloweather of AMWX posted two really interesting maps tonight.

First one is Novembers preceding the the snowiest el Niño winters and the other is November preceding the least snowiest el Niño winters.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

That is literally, year for year every analog that I blended for my winter forecast. That's just insane. Had no clue about that fact though. Nice post.

 

Edit: I have 1940-41 in there too but it's looking like the weakest year at this time.

[Tom]

Buffaloweather of AMWX posted two really interesting maps tonight.

First one is Novembers preceding the the snowiest el Niño winters and the other is November preceding the least snowiest el Niño winters.

 

 

I think these maps show a good illustration of what may end up happening this month.  Most likely the west coast will end up below avg along with the 4 corners region.  I think from I-80 on north it may end up being a very warm first half, then the 2nd half turns out much colder.  CFSv2 showing more and more runs of a colder look 2nd half of the month.  The East will prob have the highest above normal anamolies it looks like.  Pesky SE Ridge doesn't look like its going away anytime soon.

[Geos]

I think these maps show a good illustration of what may end up happening this month.  Most likely the west coast will end up below avg along with the 4 corners region.  I think from I-80 on north it may end up being a very warm first half, then the 2nd half turns out much colder.  CFSv2 showing more and more runs of a colder look 2nd half of the month.  The East will prob have the highest above normal anamolies it looks like.  Pesky SE Ridge doesn't look like its going away anytime soon.

 

If the pesky SE right can get squashed a little bit more for winter, say hello to a gradient pattern with a active jet stream coming out of the southwest/California.

[Tom]

If the pesky SE right can get squashed a little bit more for winter, say hello to a gradient pattern with a active jet stream coming out of the southwest/California.

As we roll deeper into Winter and with the possibility of more blocking, I'd say the ridge won't be nearly as impressive as it is now.  We'd get a different reaction from the change of seasons.

[clintbeed1993]

Jim Flower's Winter Outlook will be coming out tonight.  I will post it when it's out!  Very interested to see what he is thinking for this year.  The guy is pretty solid when it comes to long term forecasting.

[Tom]

Saw this CPC Constructed SST analog based 500mb pattern Dec-Feb...anyone else like this look???  Nasty NW NAMER ridge, jet cutting underneath, Huge Trough south of the Aleutians....can't get any better than this.  Oh ya, look at Siberia...that part of the world looks like it will be in the Deep Freezer this year.  Blocking over the top will seed our continent with that cold a few times this season.

 

[clintbeed1993]

Here is Jim Flower's Winter Forecast.

 

http://www.kmtv.com/weather/jim-flowers-delivers-official-winter-weather-forecast

[OKwx2k4]

Thank you everyone for the awesome contributions. Good stuff!

[jaster220]

Saw this CPC Constructed SST analog based 500mb pattern Dec-Feb...anyone else like this look???  Nasty NW NAMER ridge, jet cutting underneath, Huge Trough south of the Aleutians....can't get any better than this.  Oh ya, look at Siberia...that part of the world looks like it will be in the Deep Freezer this year.  Blocking over the top will seed our continent with that cold a few times this season.

 

 

Tom, help me out here. Guess I'm not 100% clear on how to read this.

 

1) I thought a deep low/trough south of the Aleutians was a bad thing that causes the jet to "flood Canada with warmth" like we often see in a strong Nino.

2) How does all that intense red basically all over Canada translate into a "Nasty NW NAMER ridge"?

3) I think I get the blues in the southern/SE states meaning the path of SLP's to run through that region.

 

You speak of the "jet" but I don't see that anywhere. Can you maybe pencil that in? Thx.

[Tom]

Tom, help me out here. Guess I'm not 100% clear on how to read this.

 

1) I thought a deep low/trough south of the Aleutians was a bad thing that causes the jet to "flood Canada with warmth" like we often see in a strong Nino.

2) How does all that intense red basically all over Canada translate into a "Nasty NW NAMER ridge"?

3) I think I get the blues in the southern/SE states meaning the path of SLP's to run through that region.

 

You speak of the "jet" but I don't see that anywhere. Can you maybe pencil that in? Thx.

1 & 2) As long as the trough is NOT in the GOA and located farther west off the NW NAMER coast, then ultimately storms will pump the ridge into AK/NW Canada where you see the darker reds.  If you can create rising heights in NW NAMER/Arctic regions, it will block up the hemispheric flow and discharge arctic air in the lower 48.  Sorta like what the 12z GFS run did today in the Day 10-15 range (notice how the heights rise in the extended)  All those Red colors you see in Canada doesn't mean Blow torch, it suggest blocking, Cold HP's, etc.

 

3) The blues you see in the southern U.S. signal an active STJ.  It is an "avg" blend of where the model should see systems over the 3 month period.  The way it lays out a SW/NE orientation suggests a SW Flow pattern just like we have been seeing thus far this Autumn season (this year's LRC).

 

Hope this helps.  I don't have access to pencil in anything but I recall Geo's putting a map together that showed a classic Split Flow pattern.  Let me find it and post it.

 

Here it is...notice in the map below where the colder waters are forming north of Hawaii causing the trough to form in the means later in the season.  That trough will pump the ridge in NW NAMER, buckling the jet stream, which will ultimately reach into the arctic and tug down cold air into the lower 48.

 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Thanks man for that clarification. I did know that the reds were HP vs LP areas. Hopefully, all plays out just like your original post says. While the hype before the season is often more fun than the season itself (don't remind me of every forecast for 11/12) I have to say, I'm pumped for the potential "off the charts" kind of winter for somebody in our sub-forum! We all may benefit, but somebody is always "Ground Zero"!

[Tom]

The NASA model has updated its November outlook and its not backing down.  This looks like a great Bowling ball type pattern, similar to what we are seeing this Autumn as the LRC sets up.

 

Here is the Dec-Feb period...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

Jan-March period...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

Notice the model is seeing above normal temps near New England and parts of the East Coast near NY.  This may be a clear indication of the west-based Greenland Block that is known to produce stormier conditions in the central CONUS (Plains/Midwest/Lakes).  From its previous October run, it is backing the main trough farther west.  Last month, it was more centered in the SE.  Could this be a trend?  JAMSTEC model has not backed down and it was the first to show this and its interesting to see the NASA model now heading towards that direction.  

 

For the most part, this looks like a wintry season is on tap.  Ample amount of high latitude blocking is in the cards.

 

It looks to continue into the Spring months...Feb-Apr

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

[gosaints]

First winter in a while that I have been.worried about mixed precip

[Tom]

First winter in a while that I have been.worried about mixed precip

In any Winter season, if you get a bomb to cut into the western Lakes is a reason to worry about mixed precip.  Your region is prob sitting in a good spot this season.  Places east of here or in the OV may have to worry as there may be quiet a few Appalachian runners this year.

[Geos]

The NASA model has updated its November outlook and its not backing down.  This looks like a great Bowling ball type pattern, similar to what we are seeing this Autumn as the LRC sets up.

 

Here is the Dec-Feb period...

 

 

 

Jan-March period...

 

 

Notice the model is seeing above normal temps near New England and parts of the East Coast near NY.  This may be a clear indication of the west-based Greenland Block that is known to produce stormier conditions in the central CONUS (Plains/Midwest/Lakes).  From its previous October run, it is backing the main trough farther west.  Last month, it was more centered in the SE.  Could this be a trend?  JAMSTEC model has not backed down and it was the first to show this and its interesting to see the NASA model now heading towards that direction.  

 

For the most part, this looks like a wintry season is on tap.  Ample amount of high latitude blocking is in the cards.

 

It looks to continue into the Spring months...Feb-Apr

 

 

 

I was thinking the same thing before I reached your comment about the west based Greenland block. Looks at those + departures over the Labrador and Baffin Is.

 

I think a gradient pattern is going to set up somewhere in the region. Thinking I have to adjust some of my snowfall picks as well...

 

East vs. West Block. Not that we probably won't see one; we don't want a east based block, that would overwhelm the pattern with cold.

 

  

[Tom]

I was thinking the same thing before I reached your comment about the west based Greenland block. 

 

I think a gradient pattern is going to set up somewhere in the region. Thinking I have to adjust some of my snowfall picks as well...

 

East vs. West Block

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4xVJ__nc2ZQ/UHIDD-cuAcI/AAAAAAAALMM/HXzk1WvHrbE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-10-07+at+5.32.28+PM.png  http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FXU6b5cmsdo/UHIDCn8m0eI/AAAAAAAALME/QrzLnZ3SbII/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-10-07+at+5.32.22+PM.png

I found that East-based Greenland Block's are the ones which notably produce the Powerhouse Nor'Easters on the East Coast.  Not to get greedy, but from the central/southern Plains all the way up to the lower Lakes/Midwest/OV may get pounded this season.  Do you have the 500mb pattern for '09/'10?  I think that season it was an East-based Greenland Block.

[gosaints]

The thread for eternal optimism. After this fall dont care what we see as far as temps. It has been awesome here 3 months running.

[Tom]

The thread for eternal optimism. After this fall dont care what we see as far as temps. It has been awesome here 3 months running.

Brown grass is so much fun to see during the Winter...   What are your thoughts?

[gosaints]

Optimistic for some wound up systems. Guessing we see some temp extremes. Guessing the cold shots will be much more moderate than the last 2 around here. Pretty cool battle between the blob and nino. Will expand further when not on my phone

[Geos]

I found that East-based Greenland Block's are the ones which notably produce the Powerhouse Nor'Easters on the East Coast.  Not to get greedy, but from the central/southern Plains all the way up to the lower Lakes/Midwest/OV may get pounded this season.  Do you have the 500mb pattern for '09/'10?  I think that season it was an East-based Greenland Block.

 

Not sure where to find the 500 mb history maps. 

So funny seeing this now after 60" of snow that winter here.

 

[Tom]

Not sure where to find the 500 mb history maps. 

So funny seeing this now after 60" of snow that winter here.

 

http://cloudyandcool.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/accuweather_winter_forecast.jpg?w=500&h=337

This map is pretty close to what Wx Bell is saying in terms of storm track.

[jaster220]

Not sure where to find the 500 mb history maps. 

So funny seeing this now after 60" of snow that winter here.

 

http://cloudyandcool.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/accuweather_winter_forecast.jpg?w=500&h=337

 

Well, they had the part about several snow/ice storms down south correct. I went to work in Fort Worth May of 2010 and was pretty surprised to see pictures of legit snowmen that they had made from one of their bigger storms. I remember the system right at Christmas which must've been a real thrill for some kiddies that rarely see a flake, let alone a real snowfall for Santa!

[jaster220]

This map is pretty close to what Wx Bell is saying in terms of storm track.

 

Do they have a recent updated outlook/maps?  Their early call last spring was classic Nino then the updated from August (I think) was a tweak towards your thoughts, but almost exactly what happened last season. Is it something you can post? Or link?

[OKwx2k4]

Do they have a recent updated outlook/maps? Their early call last spring was classic Nino then the updated from August (I think) was a tweak towards your thoughts, but not really what we want to see. Is it something you can post? Or link?

I think you're right. It was pretty much a 1997 meshed with a 2009. Also, on a weekly basis their "pioneer model" is pretty much spitting out what the nasa model shows only colder further south. It's got a lot of standard nino in it with '09 and '02.

[ingyball]

Well, they had the part about several snow/ice storms down south correct. I went to work in Fort Worth May of 2010 and was pretty surprised to see pictures of legit snowmen that they had made from one of their bigger storms. I remember the system right at Christmas which must've been a real thrill for some kiddies that rarely see a flake, let alone a real snowfall for Santa!

I lived in the DFW Metroplex and 2009-2010 was the best winter ever, 7 inches of snow on Christmas eve that year at my house, then I recorded 14 inches in a storm that occurred in February and another 4 inches in a late March storm.

[OKwx2k4]

I lived in the DFW Metroplex and 2009-2010 was the best winter ever, 7 inches of snow on Christmas eve that year at my house, then I recorded 14 inches in a storm that occurred in February and another 4 inches in a late March storm.

Yeah. One of those was the monster that rolled up through NE OK and Northwest Arkansas. That year was so much fun for me. 33 inches that season at Fayetteville, AR.

[OKwx2k4]

Just going to quickly break down my thoughts here on where I think we are headed at this point in time. There's no want or bias in this statement just a broad month by month that I'd like to get on paper here so to speak.

 

Rest of November:

Keeping the trend of the month so far as things continue to shake out and settle the pattern in. Warmer than average eastern 2/3rds, cool west.

 

December:

I'm leaning that we see a two faced month of sorts. Very active with split flow and a warm east coast, near average central/north Central, warm Pacific Northwest, cool southwest. Think we have have a decent shot at some well timed cold but also warmth to match it.

 

January:

I'm putting this month down as pretty hardcore cold in the central states with normal or above for the east coast and the northwest. Screaming jet underneath brings tons of fun for a lot of

The south and southeast.

 

February:

See january... repeat for february. Colder or same relative to average in most locations listed above.

 

These are quick and brief but that's honestly where I sit right now. Believe we get a few phasers and cutoffs in late January/February down here in the south to pad everyone's love of snow.

[jaster220]

Just going to quickly break down my thoughts here on where I think we are headed at this point in time. There's no want or bias in this statement just a broad month by month that I'd like to get on paper here so to speak.

 

Rest of November:

Keeping the trend of the month so far as things continue to shake out and settle the pattern in. Warmer than average eastern 2/3rds, cool west.

 

December:

I'm leaning that we see a two faced month of sorts. Very active with split flow and a warm east coast, near average central/north Central, warm Pacific Northwest, cool southwest. Think we have have a decent shot at some well timed cold but also warmth to match it.

 

January:

I'm putting this month down as pretty hardcore cold in the central states with normal or above for the east coast and the northwest. Screaming jet underneath brings tons of fun for a lot of

The south and southeast.

 

February:

See january... repeat for february. Colder or same relative to average in most locations listed above.

 

These are quick and brief but that's honestly where I sit right now. Believe we get a few phasers and cutoffs in late January/February down here in the south to pad everyone's love of snow.

 

Nice summary. I think you have as good (or better) read on it than anybody. I can't find anything to disagree with tbh.

[OKwx2k4]

Thank you jaster220.

 

It wasn't extremely specific but I don't see how we don't see nearly everyone having a great time this year. The west coast is the trickiest. I think they go above average on temperatures but not nearly as much as in the past few seasons. The east will have to be patient this winter and the Northeast may end up slightly below normal in the snowfall category.

 

One of the key 'tells' in the pattern the past few years has been the active weather starting up further west in the fall than where it settles in for the winter. Seeing what is going on out west this year should have us all smiling while we wait on the pattern to settle in.