November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

One more month of meteorological autumn to go. The transition month to winter. 

So far we've had a very abnormal El Niño autumn, especially when considering the strength of it. 

 

Thinking will see some wild swings in temperatures and probably a wetter month than October was.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I think you folks up north are in for a pretty wild month. May not be too exciting down this way until late month. Probably week 3 or so.

[Tom]

Indian Summer conditions and near record warmth for parts of the region next week.  Sky high AO peaks to near +4 during the first couple days of November.  I'd rather see this now then later.  Let's see how this month evolves.  Wild swing in the pattern may ignite the second season of severe weather with strong cold fronts.  The storm system showing up later in the following week may dump some heavy precip in the Plains.  Not a dull pattern that's for sure.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[james1976]

Phasing issues with that storm late next week.

[Tom]

Phasing issues with that storm late next week.

You can blame the AO for that...no blocking...

[gosaints]

70s might show there face again for 3 days next week.. cant complain

[gosaints]

[james1976]

Heck of a storm train on GFS.

[Geos]

Indian Summer conditions and near record warmth for parts of the region next week.  Sky high AO peaks to near +4 during the first couple days of November.  I'd rather see this now then later.  Let's see how this month evolves.  Wild swing in the pattern may ignite the second season of severe weather with strong cold fronts.  The storm system showing up later in the following week may dump some heavy precip in the Plains.  Not a dull pattern that's for sure.

 

 

Let's get it over with asap.

[OKwx2k4]

Let's get it over with asap.

This x1000

[james1976]

I keep hoping that system late next week/weekend starts looking good on model runs but it just isnt happening. The 2 pieces are too far apart.

[gosaints]

CFS hitting november pretty hard with the warmth

[Tom]

Indeed, looking similar to Nov 2009 which was a moderate El Nino...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201511.gif''

[james1976]

Not much of a fast start to Winter. Talking 70 here next week. And that CFS model isnt letting go of it.

[Tom]

Not much of a fast start to Winter. Talking 70 here next week. And that CFS model isnt letting go of it.

Winter weather doesn't start till December, on average...Fast starts to Winter rarely begin in early November, almost never...the coldest November on record was November 1976.  back then, the early season arctic outbreaks began around mid month that year.  November 2014 gave it a run for its money but came up short.  Now, if we start seeing colder weather right around the 20th or so...that would be considered a Fast start.

[james1976]

Winter weather doesn't start till December, on average...Fast starts to Winter rarely begin in early November, almost never...the coldest November on record was November 1976.  back then, the early season arctic outbreaks began around mid month that year.  November 2013 gave it a run for its money but came up short.  Now, if we start seeing colder weather right around the 20th or so...that would be considered a Fast start.at out. 

There's been a lot of 'fast winter' talk in here that was supposed to start in late October already haha. So Im just poking fun. Yes, I know meteoroligical winter starts Dec 1st. We usually see a couple light snow events in November but I dont expect that this year. However, I've already had my first flakes so thats pretty cool. 

BTW....I was born Nov 1976......but I dont remember it. haha

[Geos]

Indeed the 20th would be pretty fast. The biggest snowstorm I've seen in November was the 15-16th in 1997 when 10" fell. Then it warmed up and stayed mild for awhile as the super El Niño flexed its muscles. This year something else is in store.

[OKwx2k4]

There's been a lot of 'fast winter' talk in here that was supposed to start in late October already haha. So Im just poking fun. Yes, I know meteoroligical winter starts Dec 1st. We usually see a couple light snow events in November but I dont expect that this year. However, I've already had my first flakes so thats pretty cool.

BTW....I was born Nov 1976......but I dont remember it. haha

I have found myself increasingly guilty of the fast winter talk as well. It seems to me that the first cool shots we get make me want to accelerate this process too quickly. Just a habit of loving winter too much I guess. I take a lot of comfort in looking at November 2009 and 1977 for my area and realize the value of not rushing things along. Seasons in seasons as I always say. That however will not keep me from being excited about the winter that is to come.

[OKwx2k4]

This year something else is in store.

I most definitely agree with this statement.

[Maxim]

With the warm fall we've had so far coupled with one of the strongest ninos on record, I'm confused as to why anyone would expect a fast start to winter this year... Either way, I'm going to take advantage of the 70s that are coming next week. It's going to feel so nice after this recent cold shot.

[james1976]

I have found myself increasingly guilty of the fast winter talk as well. It seems to me that the first cool shots we get make me want to accelerate this process too quickly. Just a habit of loving winter too much I guess. I take a lot of comfort in looking at November 2009 and 1977 for my area and realize the value of not rushing things along. Seasons in seasons as I always say. That however will not keep me from being excited about the winter that is to come.

I hear ya! I keep waiting for that first storm to show up on the models......then I realize its not even November yet, haha. Im excited about winter......I start getting antsy for it in September already. We usually experience a bit of winter weather in November but like Tom said, true winter weather won't settle in til December. It seems like eastern Iowa usually gets our first significant storm the first part of December.

[Maxim]

Winter weather doesn't start till December, on average...Fast starts to Winter rarely begin in early November, almost never...the coldest November on record was November 1976.  back then, the early season arctic outbreaks began around mid month that year.  November 2013 gave it a run for its money but came up short.  Now, if we start seeing colder weather right around the 20th or so...that would be considered a Fast start.

November 2013 was pretty cold, but I think you meant last November.

[NEJeremy]

We've still managed to fight off a freeze yet here in Omaha even though the last couple of nights were supposed to get there. Made it to 33 Wed night and 34 last night. Now they're talking about record highs next week well into the 70s. I wasn't expecting a snowstorm necessarily by now, but there was a lot of chatter about a fast start to at least a change in the seasons here in October. We're 4.5 degrees above normal in October after we were 6 degrees above normal in September. At this point with the way things are going, I'm hoping for a near normal temp winter but above normal precip.

[Tom]

I don't recall anyone mentioning it would snow and stick in October, but flakes flying in the sky, yes.  This month is a different story.  As far as how warm it got in October, I will be the first to say that I wasn't expecting it to be as warm as it got in the lower 48 given what the SST analogs were pointing towards.  

 

Euro Weeklies continue to show the trough in the west and parts of the Plains this month.  Folks in the Plains have a better shot than anyone else on this forum to see sticking snow this month. 

[Maxim]

I'm wondering if we'll transition to a colder phase around the second half of the month.

[james1976]

Is the Euro showing anything with that system late next week? High pressure just kills it from developing on the GFS.

[Tom]

Interesting run on the 12z Euro...it has a tightly wound 996mb SLP tracking thru S CO/S KS thru Omaha into N IA on Thu/Fri.  GFS has been showing this system in the medium range as well.  It eventually tracks through S MN and gains even more strength (992mb).  On the 12z Euro, this storm lays down a thing band of 6-12" of snow for the N/NW half of NE and S SD.  Some snows accumulate into MN as well.

 

Then another system forms in the deep south, near DFW and tracks thru E OK up into the lower lakes.  Not a dull pattern that's for certain.

[OKwx2k4]

Around what date do you see on the later system through my neck of the woods. I let my euro subscription expire.

[Tom]

Around what date do you see on the later system through my neck of the woods. I let my euro subscription expire.

Day 9-10...it's far out, but not totally out of the realm of possibility since TX has been the epicenter of heavy rains/storms.  There is a very strong -PNA signal for the first half of this month.  It'll be interesting to see if this -PNA pattern continues throughout the winter season.  I'd be stoked to see more blocking and a -PNA look...it would spring a "cutter"/Pan Handle Hook storm train...even a few bowling balls would benefit from that pattern.

[NEJeremy]

DEAR LORD!! Anyone catch that powerhouse system that was on the 0Z run of the GFS last night?! Had a 990 mb low, 850 winds at 70-80 kts, and it dumped nearly 3" of qpf over eastern Nebraska and temps were close but looked cold enough for snow! Of course it was for 2 weeks from now and the storm disappeared on the 06Z run this morning.....

[clintbeed1993]

Fantasy land is such a joke especially on the GFS.  Fun to look at, but for entertainment purposes only.  Storms don't stick around long past day 10.

[Geos]

Just looking at the storm track. SW flow...

 

[james1976]

Yeah im liking the storm track so far with the new LRC setting up.

[Tom]

Just looking at the storm track. SW flow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015103112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

12z Euro nearly identical...just a bit NW of the GFS tracking right thru N IL...

[Tom]

CPC Outlook for November...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

[Geos]

If the teleconnections would favor more of a cold signal that might be snow for the at least part of the Great Lakes. Instead Quebec gets the snow...this time.

 

 

 

 

Liking the possibility of a gradient pattern. California and the desert SW gets rain and snow and we get our storms. Just want to be on the north side of the storm track.

[Maxim]

Just looking at the storm track. SW flow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015103112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

that's going NW

[Tom]

GFS/EURO are showing the AO/NAO dipping negative for a brief period Nov 4th-7th.  We'll just have to see how this one tracks.

 

Meantime, the last run of the CFSv2 may be catching onto the idea I wrote about in the October Discussions Thread leading to a build up of extreme cold in western Canada.  That air might make its way into the central CONUS just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

[Tom]

It looks like the Eurasian Snow cover is the highest it's been to close out October compared to the previous 3 years.  Here is the current daily departure:

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2015304.png

 

Oct 31st 2014...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2014304.png

 

 

Oct 31st 2013...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2013304.png

[Tom]

Arctic Sea Ice may have just reached the highest extent to date in the past 10 years....wonder if this has any effect to how much cold air can build this Autumn/Winter season.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png