November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Isn't the MJO the thing suppressing the Nino?

 

Probably part of it.

[snow_wizard]

These well below freezing temps are great because it will kill all of the annoying flowers that try to keep blooming all winter during mild years.

 

Nothing worse than seeing blooming flowers anytime from November-February at our latitude. Winter should be winter. Having them in some state of bloom year round cheapens their return in the springtime, IMO.

 

My neighbor has some kind of weird plant that is supposed to bloom during the holidays and the flowers freeze off more times than not because of the early cold snaps in recent years.

 

BTW the ECMWF looks quite active for week 2 for the second consecutive run now.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF shows one band of rain in a week and then goes back to more ridging. Why are we making this into something that is not there yet? It does rain in December. Usually quite frequently.

[Jesse]

Wow, already close to 50 at PDX. Warming up way faster than anticipated out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Wow, already close to 50 at PDX. Warming up way faster than anticipated out there.

 

 

Wow

[Guest Winterdog]

These well below freezing temps are great because it will kill all of the annoying flowers that try to keep blooming all winter during mild years.

 

Nothing worse than seeing blooming flowers anytime from November-February at our latitude. Winter should be winter. Having them in some state of bloom year round cheapens their return in the springtime, IMO.

Not to mention the annoying palm trees that occupy more and more lawns around here every year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low to mid-50s today?

[Jesse]

Not to mention the annoying palm trees that occupy more and more lawns around here every year.

 

Native species are the best. No need to try to transform this into California.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dp's keep dropping. Tonight will probably be a couple degrees colder in some spots.

[Jesse]

Low to mid-50s today?

 

I think east winds will probably cap PDX around 50.

 

But yeah, just a few hours ago I was thinking around 45 would be a lock for them today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I think east winds will probably cap PDX around 50.

 

But yeah, just a few hours ago I was thinking around 45 would be a lock for them today.

 

 

Only 41 at EUG. By Sunday they won't be getting out of the 30s.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous Thanksgiving. To think just a few days ago I was hoping for maybe a 2010 repeat. Feels really warm in the sun... great morning for a walk.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!!

[FroYoBro]

51 at Pdx now. Pretty great day for a Thanksgiving family walk. 

[Jesse]

51 at Pdx now. Pretty great day for a Thanksgiving family walk. 

 

Almost a 30 degree rise from this morning. Thank goodness for that strong late-November sun angle.

[Jesse]

Really too bad PDX's stretch of sub-50 highs got spoiled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Really too bad PDX's stretch of sub-50 highs got spoiled.

 

 

We can start a new one tomorrow!

[Jesse]

We can start a new one tomorrow!

 

Might last 4-5 days if we're lucky!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow dewpoints dropping into the teens in a lot of areas.

[FroYoBro]

The east wind is finally being felt over here in the burbs. Tomorrow should be quite a bit cooler. 

[bainbridgekid]

Such a bizzare pattern.

 

Snowing with 850's near -10 in Kansas while 850's are around +10 in Central Saskatchewan

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Such a bizzare pattern.

 

Snowing with 850's near -10 in Kansas while 850's are around +10 in Central Saskatchewan

 

 

Splitsville.

 

That's what cold air seems to do when there isn't much up north to begin with. Almost like it's attempting to conserve itself.

[bainbridgekid]

Splitsville.

 

That's what cold air seems to do when there isn't much up north to begin with. Almost like it's attempting to conserve itself.

Funny thing is there's also a massive lobe of cold air in extreme Northern Canada at the same time.

[Phil]

Well, the PV is officially both the largest and strongest on record for this date. It's also fully coupled from the middle troposphere, all the way through the stratosphere, through the mesosphere, up to the mesopause.

 

So yeah, no Arctic air for anyone through the remainder of 2015.

[Jesse]

Funny thing is there's also a massive lobe of cold air in extreme Northern Canada at the same time.

 

I'm not an expert on this kind of stuff, but that area of cold looks smaller than normal for this point in the season.

[Jesse]

Well, the PV is officially both the largest and strongest on record for this date. It's also fully coupled from the middle troposphere, all the way through the stratosphere, through the mesosphere, up to the mesopause.

 

So yeah, no Arctic air for anyone through the remainder of 2015.

 

Really? I find that surprising looking at the maps.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm not an expert on this kind of stuff, but that area of cold looks smaller than normal for this point in the season.

It's definitely smaller since Central Canada is so warm, but it's a pretty impressively strong PV. Looks a lot like what Phil's been talking about lately with the PV being entrenched up North.

[Phil]

I'm not an expert on this kind of stuff, but that area of cold looks smaller than normal for this point in the season.

Good observation. To put this simply, the PV is basically a giant chemical tornado. When it's strong (as it is now) the coldest air, which is sparse in ozone and nitrous oxide is sucked/bottled up in the upper levels, riding the pressure gradient. Here, it just sits and spins, getting colder and colder as more ozone is destroyed in the absence of solar radiation. I call it dead air.

 

When the vortex weakens or is destroyed, that frigid air is released and is free to flow into the mid latitudes.

[MossMan]

Well, the PV is officially both the largest and strongest on record for this date. It's also fully coupled from the middle troposphere, all the way through the stratosphere, through the mesosphere, up to the mesopause.

 

So yeah, no Arctic air for anyone through the remainder of 2015.

Meh...I'm sure someone will be seeing arctic air by the second or third week of December. Possibly us. 1990/1996/2008 repeat.

[Jesse]

Meh...I'm sure someone will be seeing arctic air by the second or third week of December. Possibly us. 1998 repeat.

1998-99 was a moderate La Niña. 1997-98 was the strong El Niño.

[MossMan]

1998-99 was a moderate La Niña. 1997-98 was the strong El Niño.

Ok, 2006/2007 repeat, just a few weeks early.

[Jesse]

Good observation. To put this simply, the PV is basically a giant chemical tornado. When it's strong (as it is now) the coldest air, which is sparse in ozone and nitrous oxide is sucked/bottled up in the upper levels, riding the pressure gradient. Here, it just sits and spins, getting colder and colder as more ozone is destroyed in the absence of solar radiation. I call it dead air.

 

When the vortex weakens or is destroyed, that frigid air is released and is free to flow into the mid latitudes.

Good explanation. A strong PV seems like it would be a symptom of a warmer global regime to me. Like all of the cold air is corralled into a relatively small area by the surrounding warmth.

 

The actual PV itself may be really cold, but the spatial coverage is relatively anemic.

[Phil]

It's definitely smaller since Central Canada is so warm, but it's a pretty impressively strong PV. Looks a lot like what Phil's been talking about lately with the PV being entrenched up North.

You're correct, it's truly a monster. Here's 10mb..this is ridiculous.

 

Image credit to WSI.

 

[Phil]

Good explanation. A strong PV seems like it would be a symptom of a warmer global regime to me. Like all of the cold air is corralled into a relatively small area by the surrounding warmth.

Actually, a warmer globe via CO^2 radiative forcing should (in theory) weaken the lower and middle portion of the PV column 10mb and below), and strengthen the upper portion of the PV column (above 5mb). So, it should promote a more -NAM with time.

 

What we're seeing now is a consequence of a seasonally aligned +QBO of record amplitude, and an intraseasonal tropical forcing regime that favored relatively broad IO/Pacific Hadley Cells over the last 5 weeks. Going to be some interesting research in 2016 regarding potential linkage between this otherworldly +QBO and the ongoing super Niño. There's already good research out there that utilizes the QBO to help predict ENSO behavior.

[Jesse]

Actually, a warmer globe via CO^2 radiative forcing should (in theory) weaken the lower and middle portion of the PV column 10mb and below), and strengthen the upper portion of the PV column (above 5mb). So, it should promote a more -NAM with time.

 

What we're seeing now is a consequence of a seasonally aligned +QBO of record amplitude, and an intraseasonal tropical forcing regime that favored relatively broad IO/Pacific Hadley Cells over the last 5 weeks. Going to be some interesting research in 2016 regarding potential linkage between this otherworldly +QBO and the ongoing super Niño. There's already good research out there that utilizes the QBO to help predict ENSO behavior.

What exactly is the QBO measuring?

[Phil]

It's important to note that a strong PV in the stratosphere will lead to warmer overall high latitude tropospheric temperatures, with a concentrated "core" of cold tropospheric anomalies right around the pole, as the coldest air is bottled aloft.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like it's around 20 with light snow at my house.

 

37 and clear skies here in southern OR. Low of 28 this morning.

[Phil]

What exactly is the QBO measuring?

It's a measurement of large scale windflow in the tropical stratosphere, with important implications on poleward momentum transfer and the Brewer Dobson Circulation (which pumps ozone poleward)

 

Here's a good animation of the wind anomalies associated QBO, on a yearly basis since 1960. It's a fairly stable, predictable harmonic wave. The QBO downwells from the mesosphere well in advance it's manifestation between 30-50mb, with the oncoming wave(s) observable in advance in the lower mesosphere, referred to as the SAO (semi-annual oscillation).

 

https://sandrolubis.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/qbo.gif

 

It's truly one of the most important variables when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I just wish more forecasters would put time into researching and understanding it, because so many view it as simply a + or - number, and ignore the conduits through which it influences the global circulations. There are circumstances where a +QBO will actually favor polar blocking (Niña, +solar, active IO), and circumstances where a -QBO will inhibit blocking (Niña, +solar, quiet IO). It's not a simple binary relationship.

[DareDuck]

For some reason on my phone I can't go back to previous pages it takes me to the first page of the thread. Anyways, Phil I can't quote you so I'll just ask.

 

You said the cold air entrenched up north is free to flow to the mid latitudes once the PV is broken. Do you have any idea when that may happen and potential areas it's likely to go?

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS pretty quiet and very dry the next 10 days.