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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

snow cold rain wind storm
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#3351
Front Ranger

Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:17 PM

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Right now the trend in the models is to amass the coldest air in the NH in Siberia, leaving most of our side of the globe quite warm. I will feel better about the chances of cold air down the road (probably after Christmas) if we see Alaska turn cold again towards mid December.

 

One thing we definitely don't want to see is a really warm December in Alaska. Historically, that's led to nothing good for the PNW during Ninos. Take a look at the list of +ENSO years with +7 or warmer December anomalies at Fairbanks. It's a who's-who of non frozen turd fests.

 

2014

2002

1993

1986

1982

1969

1963

1947

1939


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3352
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:21 PM

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Pretty!  :wub:   Me like color... Me think nice...  *grunt*

 


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#3353
Front Ranger

Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:21 PM

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Haha, 00z GFS is so strong w/ the GOA low that it pushes the downstream surf zone and subsequent wave breaker into the NAO domain, sending the lower PV column (100-30mb) into Siberia.

That'd certainly be a bizzare way to initiate winter. Either way, it'd be transient as the PV reconsolidates fairly quickly.

 

Perhaps the PV will become so powerful that it collapses on itself. Like a black hole.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3354
DareDuck

Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:24 PM

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For those who follow sports, I view moderating like officiating: it's not so much how strict you are, but how consistent. Of course, refs/umps have the benefit of solely focusing on the game at hand; I know it's hard to follow everything that goes on here closely, especially if you have a life.

Eh in sports i prefer the officials to be real loose and let them play. Here I'd rather the moderators delete more posts because people never learn their lesson around here. If debates were more constructive then they can be more lenient.

While nothing was particularly nasty today it doesn't need to be on here and makes this part of the forums unappealing to others.

I understand you guys have known each other for awhile and don't take each other's insults too personally, but it would be nice if it was a little more cordial.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#3355
Phil

Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:34 PM

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Perhaps the PV will become so powerful that it collapses on itself. Like a black hole.


Ironically, that's actually somewhat analogous to the destabilization process that often precedes vortex breakdowns (barotropic instability).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3356
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:59 PM

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Very acceptable GFS run.  Some nice mountain snows, a major fire hose, a possible wind storm, and a decent cold snap in the next two weeks.  Right now it even shows late this week being decently chilly with sub 534 thickness.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#3357
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2015 - 10:01 PM

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3 of the top 10 analogs at day 8 are from 2006.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#3358
Front Ranger

Posted 30 November 2015 - 10:44 PM

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Eh in sports i prefer the officials to be real loose and let them play. Here I'd rather the moderators delete more posts because people never learn their lesson around here. If debates were more constructive then they can be more lenient.

While nothing was particularly nasty today it doesn't need to be on here and makes this part of the forums unappealing to others.

I understand you guys have known each other for awhile and don't take each other's insults too personally, but it would be nice if it was a little more cordial.

 

Well, last time I checked there are rules to the forum and no one was breaking them. But the issue here more to me was the seemingly random selection of posts to delete. I mean, we could easily find many posts in the past week that were far more insulting than those posts. I didn't even mean either of those posts to be insulting at all, it was just silliness to me. Half of what I post on here is not meant seriously. I have a feeling some people take what I say more seriously than I mean it, but hey, that's the internet for ya.

 

The deletions were strange...but whatever. I've moved on. Life isn't fair. :)


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3359
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2015 - 10:55 PM

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All of the GFS ensemble runs today have advertised a return to above normal heights over the GOA during week two.  A very good sign!


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#3360
Front Ranger

Posted 30 November 2015 - 11:05 PM

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Latest Euro looks pretty good towards the end.

 

 


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3361
DareDuck

Posted 30 November 2015 - 11:06 PM

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Well, last time I checked there are rules to the forum and no one was breaking them. But the issue here more to me was the seemingly random selection of posts to delete. I mean, we could easily find many posts in the past week that were far more insulting than those posts. I didn't even mean either of those posts to be insulting at all, it was just silliness to me. Half of what I post on here is not meant seriously. I have a feeling some people take what I say more seriously than I mean it, but hey, that's the internet for ya.

The deletions were strange...but whatever. I've moved on. Life isn't fair. :)


We're mostly in agreement there. Like I said I didn't think there was anything nasty said earlier, it's just when there's an ugly back and forth every day it's harder to let things slide. I also agree you can find many worse posts recently that I wish weren't allowed either.

This place has so many brilliant minds, it would be cool to use that to analyze the weather and not undermine each other's preferences.

Anyways back to the weather. 22 at my place in Bend with a slight chance of snow and freezing rain tomorrow evening before it switches over to rain. WSW issued that includes Bend, but that may be unnecessary for our area.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#3362
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2015 - 12:08 AM

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This place has so many brilliant minds, it would be cool to use that to analyze the weather and not undermine each other's preferences.

 

 

So true!  Probably big egos attached to those brilliant minds also.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#3363
BLI snowman

Posted 01 December 2015 - 12:11 AM

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Well, last time I checked there are rules to the forum and no one was breaking them. But the issue here more to me was the seemingly random selection of posts to delete. I mean, we could easily find many posts in the past week that were far more insulting than those posts. I didn't even mean either of those posts to be insulting at all, it was just silliness to me. Half of what I post on here is not meant seriously. I have a feeling some people take what I say more seriously than I mean it, but hey, that's the internet for ya.

 

The deletions were strange...but whatever. I've moved on. Life isn't fair. :)

 

I agree. In fact, I've already discussed the matter with my local congressman tonight. 

 

Latest Euro looks pretty good towards the end.

 

 

attachicon.gif240.gif

 

Suppress that jet, baby!



#3364
MillCreekMike

Posted 01 December 2015 - 12:11 AM

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Ha...Don't know what hour this is due to the fact that I just saw it on the PDX WX page.

 
12310630_875513985889578_712343452556760

Mill Creek 2017-2018 Snowfall:

 

11/3/17: 0.25"

11/5/17: 1"

12/24/17: 2"

2/13/18: 0.5"

2/18/18: 0.5" (graupel)

2/21/18: 0.5"

2/25/18: 0.5" (graupel)

3/23/18: 0.25"

4/2/18 0.25" (graupel)

Total: 5.75"


#3365
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2015 - 12:22 AM

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Ha...Don't know what hour this is due to the fact that I just saw it on the PDX WX page.

12310630_875513985889578_712343452556760

It's for six hours from now.

Evacuate.

Somehow that setup would yeild 80+ degree lows in SE Portland.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3366
iFred

Posted 01 December 2015 - 02:01 AM

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Eh in sports i prefer the officials to be real loose and let them play. Here I'd rather the moderators delete more posts because people never learn their lesson around here. If debates were more constructive then they can be more lenient.

While nothing was particularly nasty today it doesn't need to be on here and makes this part of the forums unappealing to others.

I understand you guys have known each other for awhile and don't take each other's insults too personally, but it would be nice if it was a little more cordial.


You're right. Leniency will come when things lighten up and people people can post through a warm winter without sending angst filled threats to each other by seasons end.

Also, posts are never deleted. They're hidden. If you really want your turd examinations to be a part of public record, then PM a mod.
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#3367
crf450ish

Posted 01 December 2015 - 06:36 AM

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All signs point to that. The chances of heading straight into mod/strong Nina territory (ala 1998) are mixed. Sometimes it happened after really strong Ninos, but there are many times it hasn't: 1958, 1966, 1983, 1992 all went neutralish.

 

I'd say about 50/50 we go full blown Nina.

If I'm not mistaken (50/50 I am lol), 2008 was a nina year and thats when Spokane had its massive snow storm of epic biblical proportions. on December 17-18 2008, 21" of snow fell on downtown Spokane, and I mean the metro area. 

 

https://youtu.be/64ntHN-xsLk



#3368
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2015 - 06:42 AM

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You're right. Leniency will come when things lighten up and people people can post through a warm winter without sending angst filled threats to each other by seasons end.

Also, posts are never deleted. They're hidden. If you really want your turd examinations to be a part of public record, then PM a mod.


I understand the position you're in.

However, I don't understand some of the post-hiding decisions lately. Just being honest. I've been posting here a long time, and I don't complain about the moderation often. I never complain about my fellow posters (to mods). And I certainly haven't been sending any angst filled threats towards anyone.

But now I know "turd" is a dirty word, so I'll keep that in mind.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3369
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2015 - 06:51 AM

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So true!  Probably big egos attached to those brilliant minds also.

 

Careful...this statement could easily be construed as insulting. I don't have a brilliant mind, so I don't feel insulted, but the resident geniuses probably do.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3370
iFred

Posted 01 December 2015 - 07:20 AM

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I understand the position you're in.

However, I don't understand some of the post-hiding decisions lately. Just being honest. I've been posting here a long time, and I don't complain about the moderation often. I never complain about my fellow posters (to mods). And I certainly haven't been sending any angst filled threats towards anyone.

But now I know "turd" is a dirty word, so I'll keep that in mind.

 

The word "turd" is fine. We'll handle this in PM.



#3371
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 December 2015 - 08:47 AM

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Ha...Don't know what hour this is due to the fact that I just saw it on the PDX WX page.

 
12310630_875513985889578_712343452556760

 

LOL!!  Could you imagine if that was real?  ... Wowza!



#3372
Chris

Posted 01 December 2015 - 09:01 AM

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Well you can’t please everyone all the time.  I for one appreciate iFred paying for and maintaining the site, and ad-free at that. 

 

There aren’t that many rules but they sure can be hard to follow at times.  The personal attacks don’t bother me much; in fact I chuckle when the attacker makes ridiculous assumptions about who I am.  But when a weather event brings in new and infrequent visitors, insults and individual criticisms are detrimental.  Of course that is based on the premise that we want to grow the forum, not become a semi-exclusive chat room.

 

I think iFred has demonstrated quite a bit of leniency.  Personally, I would immediately ban someone who attacks someone else’s children.  As far as hiding posts goes, remember you may not have seen all the posts in the downward spiral before they were hidden.  When a moderator starts removing them, it’s easier to just go back to the post that started it all.

 

It sure would be nice if we could go the rest of the year with only lively weather discussion, model debates, predictions, and friendly banter.  Oh, and also a white Christmas.


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#3373
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 December 2015 - 09:22 AM

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Good news is there is still promise in the GFS and ECMWF for mid-December... :)


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#3374
iFred

Posted 01 December 2015 - 09:23 AM

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How exactly does listing how many kids a person has constitute an "attack" against their kids?

 

I get that you don't like me, but that's a bit of a stretch.

 

When facets of someone's personal life are used against them in an argument in order to degrade them. This also includes demeaning someone on their religion, or attacking someone over their socioeconomic or political position.

 

Its pretty simple and straightforward. He also doesn't hate you.


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#3375
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 December 2015 - 09:25 AM

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How exactly does listing how many kids a person has constitute an "attack" against their kids?

 

I get that you don't like me, but that's a bit of a stretch.

I never even saw that you posted that... Either way, a PM might be better in this case. But up to you. ;)



#3376
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2015 - 10:35 AM

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Well you can’t please everyone all the time.  I for one appreciate iFred paying for and maintaining the site, and ad-free at that. 

 

There aren’t that many rules but they sure can be hard to follow at times.  The personal attacks don’t bother me much; in fact I chuckle when the attacker makes ridiculous assumptions about who I am.  But when a weather event brings in new and infrequent visitors, insults and individual criticisms are detrimental.  Of course that is based on the premise that we want to grow the forum, not become a semi-exclusive chat room.

 

I think iFred has demonstrated quite a bit of leniency.  Personally, I would immediately ban someone who attacks someone else’s children.  As far as hiding posts goes, remember you may not have seen all the posts in the downward spiral before they were hidden.  When a moderator starts removing them, it’s easier to just go back to the post that started it all.

 

It sure would be nice if we could go the rest of the year with only lively weather discussion, model debates, predictions, and friendly banter.  Oh, and also a white Christmas.

 

I agree, he has. It actually wasn't him who hid my posts. 

 

I think it was an effort to "crack down" and be less lenient, I'm just not sure why those particular posts were chosen. It was friendly banter...certainly not a personal attack. Just odd, but oh well.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3377
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2015 - 10:41 AM

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I agree, he has. It actually wasn't him who hid my posts.

I think it was an effort to "crack down" and be less lenient, I'm just not sure why those particular posts were chosen. It was friendly banter...certainly not a personal attack. Just odd, but oh well.

Someone messed up, but rather than being forthcoming they are just being weird about it.

#3378
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2015 - 10:42 AM

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When facets of someone's personal life are used against them in an argument in order to degrade them. This also includes demeaning someone on their religion, or attacking someone over their socioeconomic or political position.

Its pretty simple and straightforward. He also doesn't hate you.


I am a member of the Sierra Club.

Ok, now he probably hates me. ;)

#3379
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2015 - 10:54 AM

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All over a turd. Turds don't typically carry this much weight.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3380
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2015 - 10:54 AM

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All over a turd. Turds don't typically carry this much weight.


Unless you ate at Chipotle earlier.
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#3381
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2015 - 11:14 AM

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Unless you ate at Chipotle earlier.

 

In that case it would have been about muddy waters.  


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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3382
Snowman5678

Posted 01 December 2015 - 02:44 PM

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We came very close to dropping $7,000 on a whole house generator back in December of 2006 after being in the dark and cold for 10 days.

 

But then we got lazy and put it off and that was a good thing.   They rebuilt the entire power system (and transmission lines) out here after that storm and also connected our area underground to the main terminal in North Bend right by Safeway.    Before that, our power was routed up through a neighborhood with overhead power lines and huge trees.   We moved into this house in August 2005 and the power would go out for long periods of time before December of 2006.   I remember we were down for 3 or 4 days in December 2005 and another 3 days during the snow of November 2006.

 

After December 2006... the only time our power has gone out for more than 2 minutes was during the ice storm in January 2012 and that was because of damage to the transmission lines.    Otherwise it never goes out regardless of how strong the wind blows or how much snow we get.   We never lost power in December 2008 and we had almost 4 feet of snow on the ground.

Same thing happened here. After 2006 they rebuilt the power system between Redmond and Duvall. We used to lose power once the winds got above 40-45 and it would typically go out at least 5 times a winter for day or two at a time. Now I can't even remember when we last lost power. 







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