2/3-2/4 Southern Lakes/Ohio Valley Winter Storm...

[DominicR]

A developing winter storm out of southwest today will bring heavy snows to the Plains tonight and eventually into the lower Lakes and Ohio Valley tommorow and early Wednesday. Currently looks like heaviest will miss Quads, Chicago and Detroit but these areas could get 3-6 inches while areas in N MO/S IA/C IL/IN/OH could get 6-12 inches with locally more. Latest 06z NAM has gone a tad north and wetter up the I-80 north corridor while it has shrunk heavy snow band in IN. Plenty of time still for adjustment(s). 50-60 mile north would put the big cities right back in the heaviest axis of snow!

 

06z NAM Snowfall:

[DominicR]

LOT 2-5 inches north of I-80. 4-9 inches south..

 

HAVE FORECAST SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 12:1-14:1 BASED ON
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THAT AGREES WELL WITH THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE 2 TO 5
NORTH OF THERE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW RATES SHOULD COME
DOWN QUICKLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WED MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SNOW IN THE MORNING MOST FAVORED IN EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING
POSSIBLY CHICAGO DURING THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 KT ON WED MORNING...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE
SEEN...ESPECIALLY IN THE RURAL LOCALES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE
WATCH END TIME AT NOON ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT COULD SEE
WITH EVENTUAL WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES THAT THE END TIME NEED NOT
GO THAT LONG DUE TO DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES OR NO FALLING SNOW
ALTOGETHER.

 

[DominicR]

WSW's out for C IL/IN now. GFS came a little drier over here. I am gonna with 3-5 inches up to the border and possibly MKE last entire row of counties for now. KSC to Peoria look good for 6-10+

[DominicR]

ABC 7 I believe using NAM model with foot or more near Pontiac-Kankakee and general 4-7 inches in N IL.

[snowman1]

Man,as someone being right along I80, this could go either way for me. Nervous! Give me the 6+ side of it and I'll be a happy man.

[Niko]

Hopefully, it trends more North. Still time for for this to change. Currently im in the 3-5inch.

[winterfreak]

Time to get this show on the road.

[gosaints]

NAM drier on the northern flank. More like the globals

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/12znam_zpscf781754.png

[Geos]

Sticking with 2-4" here.

 

12km NAM agrees.

 

[Tom]

NAM picking up on Lake Enhancement it looks like...could be the wildcard for Cook/Lake counties in IL.

[Sciascia]

I'm gonna ride low on a prediction and guess 2.5" at ORD from this system.

[East Dubzz]

Thinking 1-3" around my area.

[Tony]

Unless things change in the next 24hrs this will not be our storm maybe just a refresher at best. Seems the southern route is the way to go with the next couple systems.

[Tom]

I agree Tony, looks like the southern Plains/Midwest is in the bullseye for the next 2 systems.  East coast looks like there are going to get a bomb this weekend.

[Tony]

The word is that the 12z GFS is having feedback issues and is pretty much a worthless run as nothing seems to be matching up.

[Tony]

12z rgem actually looks decent for our area. Moderate snows for about 6-7hrs. I posted 1 frame of the run

[East Dubzz]

Where is this blocking coming from? Both AO/NAO look to be positive or neutral, and the PNA is definitely negative. Is it a -WPO/EPO? It has to be, otherwise I'm just confused.

[Tom]

Ya, I think it is the tanking WPO which produces and eastern trough and that is outweighing the -PNA.  We both discussed about this possibly being an issue for us around here that may suppress the system. 

[Sciascia]

Model madness is keeping things interesting. With GFS feedback issues & a met on AmWx saying that even the RGEM may be too SE with the low, it's tied me into another full day of model runs. Lol

[Tom]

12z RGEM...still thinking ORD picks up 4.0"

 

[Money]

RGEM is too far SE with the low as well. Both are having feedback issues (RGEM/GFS)

 

I'll go with 4-6 for ORD.

[indianajohn]

is there any possibility it shifts 50 miles or so north and hitting Northwest Indiana, or will it pretty much stay south in central indiana?

[Tom]

Man, all we need is a 50 miles shift NW and we could get 6"+...

[Tony]

is there any possibility it shifts 50 miles or so north and hitting Northwest Indiana, or will it pretty much stay south in central indiana?

There is always that possibility especially with quite a few METS thinking the slp is too far SE. Of course the models could be right but that really hasn't been the case this winter.

[Tony]

Can't give up hope so will wait it out till 12z models tomorrow. Maybe by then the models will have a clue as to what is going on.

[Geos]

Skilling holding steady at 3-7". Kind of saw his map in the background. Looked like 4" near the lake, 3" west of there and then 5-6" from I-80 south.

[Hawkeye]

The GGEM and UK have now gone under 0.20" here.  For us, this system is slowly fading into another nickeler.

 

The date for this storm should be Feb 4/5, not 3/4 like the thread title currently says.

[Niko]

I am so close to the 6-12inch range. They have me in the 3-6". Just a tad north and I am in the heavier snows.

[Tony]

I had this in the wrong thread so here it is again:

 

 

 

There are some METS on Americanwx chiming in on this storm which is always a plus and a learning experience as well. They are pretty much saying in a nutshell that they believe that the slp is to far east. Here are some exerps from their posts:

 

"Agreed. At least it's very apparent that the GFS is erroneously jumping the surface low center to the warm sector convection instead of tucked in closer to the midlevel trough hundreds of miles away over the OV as it should. This will make it easier to discount"

"Even the RGEM to an extent tries to do what the GFS is doing, the difference being it starts the low much further north and in a more correct location with regards to the upper level trough"

 

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

 

"You can see it as you tick through the hours, once the convection weakens the RGEM refocuses back at the main low"

 

"Yup, that's clear to see there, so it's conceivable that even the RGEM, while much better than the GFS, might be too far southeast at least initially with the slp placement"

 

"When a storm system taps pacific moisture it almost always overperforms. Check out the huge moist plume from the south/central Pacific on water vapor. That would suggest that the models with the higher QPF totals might be more representative than the others"

 

[Geos]

Going to have to count on the LES up this way. Otherwise one or two inches might be it.

[james1976]

Euro?

[East Dubzz]

Euro?

It's around .15-2" QPF for you

[Madtown]

any qpf numbers for Madison? even though I think DAB is where I'm headed

[East Dubzz]

any qpf numbers for Madison? even though I think DAB is where I'm headed

Somewhere between .05-.1"

[shakjen]

DVN has an advisory now and counites south have been upgraded to warning. LOT as gone with nothing right now. They usually seem to be last to decide.

[Tom]

Latest 18z GFS brings the 4.5" line up to the I-90 corridor...4" to the WI/IL border...not bad.

 

[Madtown]

HPC heavy snow still has me in a slight chance of over 4"???

[Geos]

4km NAM

 

[Tony]

4km NAM

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-10191-0-81060900-1391462595.png

Geos, nice little blob of lite blue over you!!