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11/11 - 11/12 Plains/Lakes Autumn Storm


Tom

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It's still 4-5 days out and surprisingly there is a good amount of agreement amongst the models that a system will eject out into the central Plains and rapidly intensify as it heads towards the western Lakes.  Looks like this system has a lot of wind, rain and possible severe weather to go along with it.  There may be some spotty snows, but that all depends if this storm can deepen enough to create its own cold air.

 

Let's Discuss...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015110712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

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Still too early to say how this system will play out but we are in the time span for some of the bigger fall storms on the Great Lakes. We shall see if this is a big one or not. Here is a little information on a couple of the biggest November storms on the lakes

 

November 10' 1975

 

 http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2006/20060016.pdf

 

November 10, 1998

 

http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/2001/Vol25No12/Pg33-Iacopelli.pdf

 

I use these two storms as the benchmark for recent November Storms on the great lakes 

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Still too early to say how this system will play out but we are in the time span for some of the bigger fall storms on the Great Lakes. We shall see if this is a big one or not. Here is a little information on a couple of the biggest November storms on the lakes

 

November 10' 1975

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2006/20060016.pdf

 

November 10, 1998

 

http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/2001/Vol25No12/Pg33-Iacopelli.pdf

 

I use these two storms as the benchmark for recent November Storms on the great lakes

November 10, 1975 was the day the Fitz sank right?

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18z GFS with a 992 SLP centered right over me at 6pm Wednesday. A lot of precip and wind. How long does Lezak think the current LRC will be?? This may be a Christmas storm in the 2nd cycle.

48-49 days is his best guess at the moment...

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00z Euro still showing a 986mb SLP in W IA.  Could be cold enough for some snow now in parts of NE, esp just west of Omaha.  If there is a switch-over to Snow Wednesday night, might have some wind driven snow in extremely strong winds.  

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It's going to be a very windy system. 

Winds just above ground level. Winds like this could easily come down as gusts and during storms.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NWS Hastings:  For Wed. Nov. 11, 2015

 

THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO LOWER SFC TEMPERATURES JUST ENOUGH 32-36 TO LIKELY SEE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SO IT IS JUST A MATTER OF COOLING THOSE SFC TEMPERATURES. THE NAM
SFC TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST REALISTIC DOING A BETTER JOB
OF ACCOUNTING FOR THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING DOWN TO THE WETBULB
TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THIS WOULD TURN THE RAIN
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THE DEFORMATION
BAND PUSHES EAST. THE WARM GROUND ALONG WITH AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELY
IN THE MID 30S NEAR THE SFC WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW TO TALK
ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
WHITE ON GRASSY AREAS...PRIMARILY NEBRASKA ZONES

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4km NAM is showing super cell tracks in IL, IA and MO!

Starting to think about 11/17/13 all over again.

 

post-14-0-48679000-1447085967.gif

 

I saw talk that these storms could move at 50 mph or more!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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@ Geos

 

That would be an epic redux just a few days away from exactly (2) yrs. - crazy!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On the cold side, first blizzard watch of the year! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING HIGH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM A BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AND THE TRACK COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE IMPACTING
SNOW TOTALS. REGARDLESS OF ACCUMULATIONS...CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A PERIOD OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION.

COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-NEZ079-080-100600-
/O.NEW.KGLD.BZ.A.0001.151111T1000Z-151112T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...BENKELMAN...TRENTON
208 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015 /308 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE.

* TIMING...SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER 3 AM MST...INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AFTER SUNRISE. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO. BE PREPARED FOR
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ROAD CLOSURES...AND POWER
OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

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Maybe I have a small chance at seeing some flakes as well. DMX:
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF...WITH  
A SECONDARY BACKDOOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
DEPARTING LOW THAT COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN IOWA  
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME  
IMPRESSIVE 35-45 KTS OF MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE  
SHOWERS...SO DESPITE THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...THIS EVENT WILL ALSO  
BEAR WATCHING.

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4km NAM shows it may be cool enough in eastern NE to see some snow as well in the deformation band.

 

 

 

O wait... there's more!

 

Check this out Iowa folks!

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's a weird looking snowfall map with some very patchy characteristics.  Seems like the models may be having a tough time with how much dynamic cooling will occur.  This may end up being one of those wait and see until the actual storm is happening.  Someone will get under some heavy bands of snow though.  Pin pointing those down ahead of time is nearly impossible.

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That would actually give me some snow! Nice! 4k NAM has some nasty storms circulated within the low that explode over Eastern Neb/Western Iowa. Worried about getting dry slotted, it's always tricky, but it looks like the low could legitimately cross directly over top of OMA/LNK, leaving us desolated with precipitation totals. Still got time, and love the NAM. 

 

 

Btw, did anyone see the 18z GFS brought back the monster for next week? :D it's a warm system, but hey, as long as it's a system at this point, something to watch!

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That's a weird looking snowfall map with some very patchy characteristics.  Seems like the models may be having a tough time with how much dynamic cooling will occur.  This may end up being one of those wait and see until the actual storm is happening.  Someone will get under some heavy bands of snow though.  Pin pointing those down ahead of time is nearly impossible.

 

I think the patchiness can be attributed to marginal temperatures and timing (day vs. night snowfall).

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I am tentatively planning on chasing Wednesday. I've never really chased a cold core/mini sup setup much less chased in November before. It's going to be tricky with the rapid storm motions, but I'm pretty optimistic on seeing something pretty strong in southern Iowa before it blows past me! Maybe I'll see a tornado and snow on the same day!

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00z GFS dumps some heavy snows in the Arrowhead of MN and some lighter snows in the Northwoods of Wisco.  A friend of mine is heading up to Minocqua, WI to go Muskey fishing Wed-Sun.  He's prob going to see snow flakes fly while he's up there.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111000/gfs_asnow_ncus_18.png

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GFS with winds 60-65mph just above the surface on Thursday morning across northern IL.

 

 

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2015/11/10/00/GFS_3_2015111000_F60_WSPD_925_MB.png

I think we will see some Wind Advisories hoisted...

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I think we will see some Wind Advisories hoisted...

 

High wind warnings probably.

 

If anyone wants to know 1 knot is 1.15 mph.

 

NAM has winds 80mph at 850mb over the lake!

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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High wind warnings probably.

 

If anyone wants to know 1 knot is 1.15 mph.

 

NAM has winds 80mph at 850mb over the lake!

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2015/11/10/00/NAM_221_2015111000_F51_WSPD_850_MB.png

 

Edmund Fitzerald Part 2???  Practically coming 40 years later to the date.  This storm is only about 2 or so mb weaker than that storm and pressure is nearly the same also.

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Wouldn't want to be on a ship out in open waters during this storm!

 

Meanwhile before it gets here, snows will be pounding away at the front range and high plains.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Edmund Fitzerald Part 2???  Practically coming 40 years later to the date.  This storm is only about 2 or so mb weaker than that storm and pressure is nearly the same also.

 

Yeah, ridiculous that they don't have a Storm Watch posted, only a Gale Watch. Huh??

 

Wouldn't want to be on a ship out in open waters during this storm!

 

Meanwhile before it gets here, snows will be pounding away at the front range and high plains.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015111000/namconus_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

They prolly wont be. Ships tend to take cover more these days since the Fitz tragedy. When I lived in Traverse City, there was a strong NOV storm and a ship pulled into East Bay and dropped anchor for a few days to let the storm blow over. Was quite a sight since you normally see only smaller pleasure craft out there. Can't remember the exact November, but between '92 and '96 somewhere in there..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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