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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/02/19 in all areas

  1. The saddest day will be when Phil loses touch with his memories of living at high altitudes.
    5 points
  2. Man the gfs is bouncing that storm all over. But really intense near the great lakes.
    5 points
  3. Policy change at ECMWF now allows imagery (model run charts etc) and data (tables etc) to be shared publicly similar to the GFS and CMC/GEM. It’s a long overdue change and a welcome one.
    4 points
  4. There is something a little spoopy about 1949 as an analog year. If there was ever a season to pull that out, this would be the season.
    4 points
  5. I just wanted to add that I also hope DJ Droppin is correct with regard to his speculations.
    4 points
  6. The system that Clinton has been talking about on the 7th/8th has everything to do with the trough that has been spinning just west off the coast of CA. The timing of when this energy ejects out into the plains while the northern jet drives south into the heartland will be the determining factor if we end up with a potential storm system to track. My gut says the Euro has the right idea and has been slowly trending this energy to eject out quick enough and allow the time for a formidable system to develop. With that being said, it's laying down a swath of accumulating snow from N MO/IL/IN/M
    4 points
  7. Some of the EPS members are picking up on some kind of snow. Checking for south of Seattle, doesn't look great. Who am I kidding, this doesn't look great by any means.
    4 points
  8. Phil’s previous early winter forecasts: THIS COULD BE IT GUYS Reality: Meh Phil’s forecast this year: Meh winter for anyone west of the cascades. This is not the winter you’re looking for. Reality: ... 2002 is an analogue for people who hate to see snow on their lawn or palm trees.
    3 points
  9. This all seems like pretty common sense stuff. My point wasn't even that it is necessarily a great analog, just that, despite the fact that it gets brought up every year, there have actually been some parallels between this fall and that one so far. So no one should be too surprised to see it getting talked about, since for once the observed weather in the lead up actually somewhat matches what we saw that year.
    3 points
  10. Our obsession with analogs is sure gonna make all of our geriatric spirals into dementia quite interesting...
    3 points
  11. I've been gone a few days... Well here's October 2019 in Klamath Falls.. High: 59.5 (-3.4) Low: 25.7 (-5.3) Mean: 42.6 (-3.3) Second month in a row to end moderately to considerably below normal. September 2019 had a mean of -2.0. I could be wrong but haven't had a cool stretch of months like this in some time? There have been lots of months in the range between normal, to slightly above, to considerably above in recent times. I would like more moisture however, please rain a tiny bit this November.
    3 points
  12. Truly an incredibly beautiful pattern. Wow.
    3 points
  13. GFS wants to sink some ships on L Superior. When was the last time any model showed a 959mb in the upper Midwest?
    3 points
  14. Halloween was the coldest day since March.
    3 points
  15. Sun spot cycle 25 looks to have begun. At this time there is one sun spot on the sun the magnetic polarity of this sunspot has reversed. This is a indication of new Solar Cycle 25 has begun. https://spaceweather.com/
    3 points
  16. CMC putting together a much stronger and colder Thursday system.
    3 points
  17. This would be the coldest November day in a long time. In fact, it would shatter records, I think.
    3 points
  18. What a pattern being depicted today. An 11-11-1911 run right there. Wow.
    3 points
  19. It actually drops the low from 1002 to 959 in the matter of 36 hours https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019110212&fh=252
    3 points
  20. @ Tom From that link Niko posted, Chicago's top (11) snowy winters include so many analogs to this coming season, how can you not be giddy at the potential?? (so crazy that the top 2 were back-to-back). Got odds on breaking into that list??
    3 points
  21. GRR has a "kitchen sink" day for wx here: Occasional Showers, Some Downpours with Small Hail or Snow Pellets and Perhaps a Lightning Strike
    3 points
  22. 00z GEFS have been trending better in the precip anomalies and showing its bias correction again....as I type this, I just heard my first Christmas season song in the background....#holidayseason is around the corner...
    3 points
  23. California had some surprise rain and hail and even lightning this morning from a misbehaving cutoff low just off the coast that proved to be a weatherman's woe. It was all very isolated, however, but it did bring some pretty clouds.
    2 points
  24. A November 1985 analog dropped out of the sky and landed right next to my dog the moment I took this pic. Prepare now!
    2 points
  25. The thing is, seasonal analogs cannot always be predictive of tendencies on weekly (or even monthly) timescales, especially during seasonal transitions. And the farther back you go, the more likely it is that you will not have analogous large scale boundary conditions to work with, irrespective of ENSO or what have you. Furthermore, years with completely different ENSOs, etc can produce very similar outcomes both seasonally and subseasonally at particular locations. So the signal vs noise (background state vs intraseasonal variability) issue comes into play. The most surefire way to obtain p
    2 points
  26. 2000 has been on my analog list for a good while.
    2 points
  27. 1949..forever and always the top analog.
    2 points
  28. We are going to pay dearly for the doldrums we're in right now. 00z GFS in 4 hours 3 minutes
    2 points
  29. GFS going bonkers with that arctic airmass. sub 492 thickness into the northern plains. Totally insane.
    2 points
  30. SST update as we open November....
    2 points
  31. Nice 3” swath from MSP to near Money too. I’d take it.
    2 points
  32. This is, in part, a response to the activation of the MJO (or its emergence over the dominating IOD signal which has been inhibiting its regular emergence out of the IO). It crosses the Maritime Continent over the next 10 days producing a trade wind burst, then propagates out over the warm pool/dateline, at which point constructive interference with the background state resumes, culminating in what should be two WWBs, the second one being displaced eastward. The CFS doesn’t represent this very well, but here’s the 850mb projection.
    2 points
  33. And mid-November is the most “zonal” subseasonal period, with a +EAMT and modest jet extension (which might not even reach the PNW, or barely so). Could be the GFS rushing the progression, but if you want big cold, just wait until the rubber band snaps back with the flip to -EAMT, AAM is removed from the atmosphere, and the East Asian jet retracts. Gonna be a wavebreaking party in late November. No semi-permanent Baffin vortex in sight right now..the next two weeks are the closest we’ll get to that for awhile, and it’s still very displaced.
    2 points
  34. Big time AO crash trying to take shape.
    2 points
  35. It's a thing of beauty 1054hp in Montana. Wish it was a little closer.
    2 points
  36. GFS with a decent storm on the 10th for N. IA/S. MN and most of WI
    2 points
  37. Yes, there is definitely a pattern developing right across the heartland where storms energize and then eventually peak in intensity across the OHV/GL's. This is one of the more definitive storm tracks I've seen ever since I've been following the LRC. A lot of times in years past, the storm track would favor one part of the Sub or the other. This year, it does raise some eye brows as to where the pattern is heading.
    2 points
  38. Portland stuff. For the Portland people. I think there are only a couple of you.
    2 points
  39. Paid for a premium weather model membership. Post some of the most useless data. Looks inversiony.
    2 points
  40. Have you considered moving to North Bend? I hear the blossoms are great in January.
    2 points
  41. Yup, winter was over before it even began.
    2 points
  42. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! 6z GFS in 2 hours 17 minutes
    2 points
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