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Hello Autumn!

Our first winter headline of the season in the CONUS has been hoisted!

I check the weather station in Stevens Point, WI and it went down to 41F this morning there. Fall is starting arrive in the Midwest.

Last flakes here was also the biggest snow of the season in mid April! That was still when I lived near Capitol Beach in west Lincoln. Being near Alvo in north Lincoln now, its a lot more open. Even if there's no true blizzard this winter, it will make blowing snow episodes a lot more interesting.

Strange to think I saw my last flakes in May. Seems so long ago.

The CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and predicting its peak dip in temps to occur right when the new LRC is developing during Oct/Nov. Latest model data suggest a Moderate to borderline Strong Nina status late Autumn. Latest subsurface SST anomalies...quite a cold pool (-3C/-4C) forming right underneath the 3.4 and 3.0 regions...

For a Nina year that was an incredible anomaly...probably on par with 1949-50 on the other end of the spectrum. For practical purposes I think we should avoid analogs that are so extreme unless they are used as part of a blend containing many years.

Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.

It got down to 54 here overnight. At this time it is sunny and 62 with a DP of 54. We are now heading into the "don't have to" season that is don't have to have the air on and don't have to have the heat on. Soon enough we will be having the heat on all day long.

Can you spot the CF??? The Euro is advertising a very strong Autumnal CF to sweep across the board next Sunday....that's about as dramatic of a temp contrast as you get in the Autumn! 90's followed by 60's just a few miles away....pretty wild stuff right there...some chilly nights are in the forecast for Labor Day! The smell of bon fires will be prevalent for those who will be enjoying the outdoors. There is overwhelming model support for a major shot of "Autumnal Chill" lead by pretty much all the modeling as we head into the first full week of Sept.

Down to 57° already! Late night bonfire about to happen.

Heading into September the current Grand Rapids mean average at Grand Rapids is 62.8° The warmest mean for any September at GR is 69.0 in 1931. The hottest day is 98 on September 2nd 1913. Highs in the 90’s are not uncommon as 49 years have seen a high of 90 or better in September and on average there is at least one day of 90 or better. The most was 7 in 1931. In 2017 there were 6. In only 2 years has it not reached at least 80. The coldest mean is 56.2 in 1918 the record low is 27 on September 28, 1991. It has fallen below 30 in 7 Septembers and it has gotten down to 32 or lower on 17 more Septembers. On average Grand Rapids receives 4.28” of rain fall. The wettest was 11.85” in 1986 and in 1979 just a trace of rain fell for the driest. Looking ahead for the meteorological autumn season(September thru November) the mean at Grand Rapids is 51.3° the warmest was a mild 57.5 in 1931 and the coolest was 45.8 in 1976. The average precipitation is 11.05” the wettest is 17.68 in 1988 the driest 2.59” in 1956. On average Grand Rapids receives 7.3” of snow fall in the fall. The most snow fall is 31.0” in 2014 and the least is a trace last recorded in 1984.

Despite spending only 1 full month of met Summer in Chicago this season, I, to, shared in the records that were being broken continuously out here in the "valley of the sun". With that being said, Chicago will go down as having one of the hottest summers on record in over 150 years! #2020SummerSizzle

The sooner you realize the “scientists” are out for the same thing (money) the “oil execs” are, the sooner you’ll start to piece things together. And when you finally figure out which side lies more to get their way you’ll finally get it. Oh and there is this one small detail that doesn’t give a crap how many people there are. It’s called the sun.

Can you believe we are in September already, WOW, just WOW!.