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What a beautiful weekend coming my way, I'm thinking outdoor project and a Sat. night bonfire coming.

Here we go...first "Frost" of the season for my area........ Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1110 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-190815- /O.NEW.KDTX.FR.Y.0001.200919T0400Z-200919T1300Z/ Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee- Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne- Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 1110 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Analyzing through all the data, it is becoming very clear we will be opening up the all-important month of October in a very different way compared to previous years. How many October's in a row did we open up the month with a SER??? I have to look back but I think you can count at least 3 years ('16-'19) in a row. Well, not this year it appears, as nearly every single model is starting to sniff out a "horse shoe" blocking pattern hook up over the top along with a Greenland Block...Lets rock??? Boom! Since yesterday's early morning post, it's not surprising to me that all the models are now seeing the -NAO pattern next week into the first full week of October. I'm digging the pattern evolution as we close out Sept and head into October. I got a real good feeling about blocking being a big player this cold season. Yesterday's Euro Weeklies illustrating a long lasting -NAO pattern with NO signal for a SER during the month of October. Another clue the BSR and the N PAC pattern is showing us clues that this years LRC will be quite different this season and chances are the Eastern CONUS may have a winter this season. Check out the neutral and/or + PNA/-NAO maps below off the Euro Weeklies. Snow chances are on the rise across our central/northern members by mid October...Canada filling up nicely with snow by Nov 1st...could we just have ourselves an Old Fashioned winter this season????

Currently 43. Coolest of the season so far.

Rise and Shine! Happy Friday all...it's a breezy and cool morning here (59F) with a stiff NNE wind off the lake. Took a look at temps in the region and we are seeing plenty of places up north with freezing temps. Some record lows are being set in the Northwoods this morning. The Autumn chill is real this year and many of us are going to start seeing the leaves changing color pretty quick up north and around the GL's. Frost Advisories hoisted for parts of N IN and may be expanded into MI for the weekend. I think there will be patchy frost around here in the outlying areas away from the lake Sat morning.

Where was your guess/prognostication/analysis/reasoning last year? I don't remember it, if you had the courage to make one.

I had a low here at my house of 41. It looks like the official low at Grand Rapids will be 40. That will be the coldest low at Grand Rapids since May 13 when the low dropped down to 31. Also I turned on the furnace for the first time since May a few minutes this morning to to take the chill off. Not to mention I have some family over from Florida. At this time it is clear and 42 here.

My area falls in the Oct 11-20 Cat, so way ahead of schedule this year. Wonder if it will be a record early "Frost." . Jaster, you are in the Oct 1-10 Cat, so still way too soon. Had some time to kill, so I did some research on when the first frost usually occurs on average: Here are some average dates for the first <35 degree temperatures in the fall: Some of these numbers are still b4 Astronomical Autumn, technically speaking, so, you can see this in different ways. Houghton Lake - September 4 Alpena - September 11 Sault Saint Marie - September 21 Lansing - September 22 Marquette - September 28 Flint - September 28 Jackson - September 30 Traverse City - September 30 Saginaw - October 1 Kalamazoo - October Muskegon - October 4 Grand Rapids - October 5 Ann Arbor - October 5 Bay City - October 6 Detroit - October 12

Yeah not saying this isn’t a typical late September warm spell, but GFS would have like 106 on days that actually hit like 93.

Ok, so, this is what is happening out in the tropics. We are already in the "Greek Alphabet." Beta is on the verge of forming in the GOM. Btw: Teddy is a monster hurricane out in the open Atlantic. Also, Wilfred became the earliest-21st named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, beating out Vince, which formed on Oct. 8, 2005, The others are just wandering all ova the pl.

Here. Crazy how we're already to the Greek alphabet.

Check out the tropics....its crazy out there.

Thought I mention this, but yesterday I saw something really odd. Well, I was driving up to Romeo (not too far from my Pl) to my uncles house to help him set up his new TV set that he bought. Anyways, to get to the point of this, I happened to see a "Surrey" with 3 people riding it and mind you, there were 2 of them on the street riding along w cars. Now, I see these often in NYC, on 5th Ave and Central Park West, but never thought I see them here in Romeo. Interesting indeed! Btw: I wonder if the ride was free!

Enjoy bud. I always enjoy doing projects outside my house (except the hard ones ).

Currently 50F under deep blue skies and a few cumulus clouds from time to time. Temps struggling to get outta the 50s today. Lows tanite approaching record lows w the possibility for my first frost. Temps should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s.

Of note for tomorrow morning is that the lows are foretasted to be in the mid 30"s and if that plays out we could be looking at near record lows. The record low here at Grand Rapids for September 19 is 36 set in 1979.

DMX talking ridging and AN in the extended. Enough of that this year. We need a pattern change and something exciting.

Bon fire for sure this weekend! Perfect fall-like weekend to venture outdoors and enjoy the pleasant weather.

Today was the clearest that it has been here in Orange in days! The sky was actually blue and the Santa Ana Mountains were visible from my window.

A little too early for this coldsnap, indeed. Tbh, I am looking forward to a nice, Autumnlike rainstorm that last all day, along w windy, chilly conditions. These sunny days are getting old now. I think we had enough of them all Summer long. My extended shows nothing but sunshine. Ugh!

What an awesome sign. I'm getting the snowboarding itch already! I don't remember things looking this good for a while. Usually they looked horrible and people were looking for the silver linings.

The sun is in yet another unexpected deep sleep. 23 spotless days and this is nearly a year past the peak of the minimum. This time it coupled with multiple days of AP in the 0 to 2 range. Amazingly there were a couple of tiny cycle 24 spots (too small to be counted) a few days ago. That means more quiet days are likely ahead.

Is this a bug? You can't view the forums as a guest anymore forcing people to register which makes ZERO sense. I can understand disabling commenting but don't disable guest viewing please!

I didn't make one bc I don't pretend to be an expert on here. Each year when there's not an epic winter for you, you claim to have learned your lessons. Then the next fall you say it's another epic pattern for you and here comes the next mini ice age. I admit it does take courage to forecast epic winters for Arkansas or Oklahoma every winter. Most people call that being a snow weenie or wishcaster though.

Looks like a dry October here continuing the drought in Nebraska.

My throat and sinuses are loving the lack of smoke now.

Another hot day.

Might be the last two shower day of the year. Haven’t been this sweaty from a walk in a while. But I welcome it. Gets the toxins out.

Striking photos show wildfire smoke turning the sky orange over San Francisco