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Everything posted by OKwx2k4

  1. I did it in September in those 3 years also, vs November 1 like most of those last revision maps that Jaster shared. I'm going to research the 2015-2020 weather period for a really long time if I can because there's probably so much missed stuff in it and a lot to learn. It's been a truly unusual era in weather/climate.
  2. Tom, jaster and FAR_Weather, I love you guys. I appreciate that.
  3. I've never made pretense one time that I'm anything but a very imperfect but kind and intelligent man who loves weather. I hope I haven't lead you to feel otherwise and I'm sorry if I have made you feel that way. You're fair, I took one shot recently at the NWS over neglecting a significant cold front when guidance was pretty well settled on it being noteworthy within 8 day range. Ultimately the result was, the temps split the difference between their thoughts and mine. Call it a wash. I have known that at some point a sharp cliff is coming and, no, im not yet sure why the pattern k
  4. Where was your guess/prognostication/analysis/reasoning last year? I don't remember it, if you had the courage to make one.
  5. That would probably hallmark one of the fastest NPAC realignments in history, as far as the warm pool is concerned. There's not a better pattern for me in any book, map, drawing or diagram I have ever looked at before. In fact it's almost scary. I hate the word perfect, but I have nothing else to say about it. I'm literally just waiting anxiously on the show at this point. Good work Tom.
  6. Great write up Tom. I really have nothing to add or take away. Its been over seven years since I've saw some of the stuff I have seen. Like you said, when it all lines up, it's undeniable. From about 09/20 on, its a whole other world after.
  7. I miss cool-cold Novembers and cold Decembers. I remember many of those in the late 1990s and early 2ks. After 2008, autumn has been remarkably different here. Here's to a shift in 2020.
  8. This is extremely important and needs to be posted here. The weather over Cali/West and Alaska, while unprecedented in our era is not without significance. This has lasting effects on global temperature and could have massive effects on the climate variance of the northern hemisphere for many years to come. 10000ft pyrocumulus is same as a volcano. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/californias-wildfire-smoke-plumes-are-unlike-anything-previously-seen/ar-BB18Y54b?li=BBnb7Kz
  9. I absolutely LOVE how it almost completely messes with them every year and does the complete opposite about the time folks write the ice off. People also forget that the brief cooldown between 1989 and 1993 only took 18 months to really kick off and to my knowledge, there were far fewer atmospheric input sources of ash and smoke than today. Just my 2c...
  10. That's a pretty warm atmospheric horseshoe showing up in the right place there, Tom. Thats a November thing in all the reanalysis that I can recall. It was a featured anomaly in every great winter here in the CONUS.
  11. Lock it in brother. Hard to deny the signals right now. Going full tilt for winter after end of month or going hit-break-hit are going to be our choices. My deal is that if we don't get a warmup in a central winter month like we all have been so used to, people aren't going to be ready for that. In the late 70s and one of the 80s years here, there were extended periods of over 30 days of snow-covered ground and hard cold here, but no one is ready for real winter.
  12. 19 years ago tonight I was a month into being a sophomore in high school and in a different universe. In less than 12 hours, the whole world changed again for me and it never changed back. I never forgot. There were folks who would have never imagined what they were going to face. It was the last night I went to sleep understanding that the American dream and also those great ideals I read about was still true and visible and that I could still have them if I worked my butt off and I could do it. Knew I could. The last day I had any innocence at all..... The next day
  13. @Tom, what I referenced above about the LRC did not pertain to you and it sounded awful. Took it down. The LRC is a valuable tool and what I do is similar in a lot of ways. Sorry.
  14. Hey, images are right-side up! Sweeeeeeeeettt.
  15. We got our "front runner" at the end of July. Sometimes the cycles, whatever title we prefer, start from different places and at different times in different seasons. If Nina typically peaks in late Oct, vs Nino peaking in late Dec or January. You'd expect the 2 month change in an LRC type world or at least the reasoning would/should work out Guess what I'm saying is if we wait til November for an LRC, it will already be in progress by then and likely already has tells indicating which way we're going. Generally speaking at least.
  16. This is the part of the year where things get difficult to follow, but it appears to me that the MJO and tropics/mid-lat variance are pretty much driving the bus in this cold event. Only other option is the feedback from the SST contrast in the PAC. Been many years since we've experienced anything but warm over warm over warm.
  17. Maybe I'm arrogant but I think my wx office is lost. I'm not sure. This is a well-telegraphed cold wave and I think they're not buying it.
  18. Most interesting September snowfall forecast i have ever seen. Incredible. Pretty sure last year it was October 8-10 or something like that before stuff like this happened.
  19. Grand solar min it is brother. The top people know now that something is coming. No more climate change agenda.
  20. I'd say yes. If not, see ya in November for the real one. Lol. If snow grazes the OK panhandle, it would have to obliterate a record. This is like 1911 though. The setup is out of the park for long length colder than average weather with legs.
  21. Who's this guy? Crap, I missed you buddy. Glad you're back! Gimme last year minus the 3 34 degree rainstorms and we in business. I think last year will be forgotten really quickly after this winter. A Niña that builds into and/or past November is a strong clue. A weak sum that doesn't penetrate the depths with IR for about 4 years. Add volcanism and wildfires and voila.
  22. I see between 45-50°F and a wild looking autumn storm on the 9th. Wild stuff!! Welcome to the roaring 20s all! No more summer!
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