OKwx2k4

On 3/31/2024 at 3:38 PM, Tom said:

The MJO is always a freaking crap shoot...JB touches a lot on the idea of underwater volcano's.  I gotta give him credit, he may be onto something...with the low solar, it usually adds to more tremors around the globe and ignites volcanos.  Interesting theory to say the least.

Yes. I've always agreed with theories that tied geomagnetic, earthquake and volcano activity and other more subtle but very constant cycles to our sun. When you see N. Hem volcanoes wake up this close after solar max, it has one's thoughts rolling....

Oklahoma is an abstract place to study earthquake activity. I've found it pretty direct that it does ebb and flow with solar.

Our temperature cycles going back the last century reflect this, along with 30-40 year PDO/AO cycles covering the other lager parts of the variance. 

The global temp drop that JB predicted many many years ago really did happen, as well, between 2008-09 and 2011-12. We had a bad (warm) winter after Sandy, and they sandbagged him. 2013-14 was the tag on the end of that crash. 

Bastardi is a smart man, he's just very extravagant in personality. Some call it a retraction, but I think it kinda makes what he teaches and does really stick well. 

Nobody at all could have predicted Hunga Tonga volcano or, going back to 2015-16, the QBO literally getting stuck and failing to propagate down, what you have is a bunch of folks who really need to accept defeat in most or all unproven theories and reinvest in getting 2 weeks of weather right.....first. Or being intelligent enough as a people to truly understand reality of why we have billion dollar disasters today when we had far fewer today. 

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Regardless of what's going on, that seems virtually impossible especially in this day and age.

Probably not straight, but a rebalance is inevitable. Crashing solar and other variables will only add to the odds. 

Seeing how long our side of the globe has been warm vs other areas is a key here as well. 

Heat up and smash the west pac full of warm water and it will be hard to keep our continent above average temps for long stretches like the last few years. 

On 3/29/2024 at 9:18 AM, Tom said:

There's always "Next Year"...as some have been discussing on here, what can we look for when we go from a Strong Nino into a La Nina next Winter???  Survey says...(courtesy WGN)

 

What does the Good Ol' CFSv2 indicate way out in lala land....last 12 runs...

That's a compelling stat when taken just on one data point alone. Pretty heavily tilts the deck one way. 

If the N. Pac flips, I'm looking at 18-20 months straight of cooler than avg central conus. We'll see if that holds up. 

One sure way to know La Niña is back.....

Days of wind in the spring here and violent t-storms. A cold, wet south wind is another oddity.

Outside of the La Niña influences, this is really ascended from a warmer start to a very typical spring month.

On 3/12/2024 at 4:56 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It should be noted that our most recent strong la nina, in 2010-11, followed a strong el nino season (2009-10). In fact, it is common for strong/super el ninos to transition into strong la ninas the following season. In addition to 2010, other years that featured such a transition are 1973, 1988, and 1998. The 1973-74 and 1988-89 la ninas are the two strongest la ninas on record.

I thought 2010-11 was the top or second strongest, but I may be mistaken. 

Know it was the coldest the Pacific had been overall in decades at one point. 

15 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Obviously its true for the PNW, but I think the midwest is also more susceptible to arctic blasts during la nina than el nino. 

Yeah. When you have a cooperative north Pacific, it keeps the cold pushed over on our side. 

Well, the AO's heart is about to skip a beat....

Will be interesting to see how this month runs out now. 

A little cold slap in the face on its way out is looking likely. 

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Local Met is giving North Texas a 70% chance of rain.  
Overcast this morning 58.*
High today 68*
Do we need rain, or what? 

If we go back to a disconfigured La Niña structure like 2022, you may be thankful for any rain you get in before summer. 

It appears ol March is trying to go out with a roar around here. 

Looking like it won't be the last round of storms on my side of the state for the month. Northwest Arkansas got rocked and lot of power outages were reported.

Upper ocean anomalies have tanked like a rock in the last 3 months from their peak in December.

Atmospherically we favor a Niña base state already and the N. Pac is in alignment with this as well. Will be interesting if we can see a full-scale Niña with a cold pdo in place to go with. 

We really just exited the most non-Niño of all the strong ones I can remember, so this Niña will have my interest. 

On 3/8/2024 at 12:16 PM, Tom said:

Of note, is the continuing warmth of the GOM...I'm really concerned for FL this season and pretty much all of the Gulf States.

Yeah. Been awol for a few, but I have saw that. Its a dead on pipeline almost on a map. 

What is incredible is seeing the virtually stable North Pacific in contrast to the equator.

It appears it won't be much longer til the end of 2023-24s Nino episode. 

What a 7 day change. 

Really any last semblance of winter is gone now here. I see the signs of real spring showing everywhere. It's wonderful. Had a bit of everything this month here. 

On 2/10/2024 at 3:39 PM, Black Hole said:

What's your impression of la nina overall for us? To me it seems to slightly increase the odds of a good arctic blast but hit and miss with snow. 

I agree with this. More cold air masses movement due to warmth at mid and high latitudes, but trade offs are global moisture transport decreasing because colder air, even at the equator, holds less moisture.

On 2/6/2024 at 10:25 AM, chescowxman said:

Some really interesting statistics for Chester County that really makes you question some of the historical temperature trending data we see. Incredibly the NCEI data set for Chester County PA. Of note from 1895 through 1970 (77 years) the reported average Chester County temperatures for 73 of those 77 (95%) years is now reported as lower than any available reporting site in the county in those years. So are we to assume all stations in Chester County were faulty for 95% of the reporting observations through 1970??

You're definitely not crazy and that's an unbelievably damning series of finds, including your previous post on the topic. 

I've looked at COOP data files and stuff in my area going back to the turn of the century which have since been altered or digitally whited out on the old PDF doc scans. It's really disappointing, but I'm not surprised. There's no limit to what these folks will do to enforce what they want believed.

Those adjustments would look a lot like the global temperature charts nowadays. 

Last few rounds of modeling starting to perk up my antennae for a good textbook late-season snow.

I guess I'm ready to see what this last round of cold and storms has to offer. Been a little something for everyone on the southern end this season. I can't complain. 

Feels like I stole southern California's weather.

Genuinely sorry for a lot of my silence this season. Been great to check in aside from my snow events ever so often and check everything out, though.

The warmth closing out January and opening this month looks pretty stout but I'm still leaning on another last punch of winter as we get towards the end of it. 

The continued -PDO, (in opposition to what has really been a much more strong, eastward and expansive El Niño than I had anticipated) is an amazing check-down or balance. 

4 hours ago, Madtown said:

Eventually it has to snow. This is year vs years past in Ironwood MI. It's gonna snow...when who knows

Oh wow. I didn't realize there was such an amazing deficit up there. Hope you pick up some white stuff!!

On 1/22/2024 at 9:19 PM, Andie said:

We’ll be in the high 30’s to 50’s. So glad we aren’t  “sweating the ice”. 

Very thankful. It absolutely feels warm here now. Glad to hear the quiet sound of my furnace not running so hard. 

Truly wanted to remark on how utterly dead all my grass and everything is now. That's one of the best cold stretches we have had here in a good while. 

Crossed the 32 degree mark and hoping I don't look back for awhile. May not be forecast to be really "warm" here, but a great break and glad to survive without tree damages. 

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Baker played a great game.  Until the last throw.  That was a good game.  I like him for going into Ohio State and beating them and planting the flag. 

Yes. Was telling my brother, he reminds me so much of Brett Favre, then he did that. Lol. Said, "Well, that too. He has Favre's problem of trying too hard."

Ohio State...That's a moment that belongs enshrined in sports history forever. It was electric, even from home. It was like he broke them. Lol. Too cool. 

4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

My English was so bad in my post lol.  Been watching and celebrating the Lions victory.   Good time to be a Wolverine and a Lion fan.  

Yes it is. ( not your English, a good time to be a fan). I hate that they beat out Baker, being a red-blooded sooner alum, but good stuff no less.

But, absolutely so happy for you all up there! Pretty cool.

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It’s the side roads that are still snow covered.  They are going to a disaster here.  Even will just plain rain for the second storm.  

Here in OK, I still have snow covered side roads that never see sun due to trees and I said the same thing. 

There's going to be nothing I can do in any precip events until the ground thaws as its uphill every way out of where I live. 

Well, this has escalated from "Not much to worry about", to ice storm warning pretty quickly. I think going in all the caveats and uncertainty was well-covered by NWS and I'm very okay with that. 

Ice events and cold-pockets over terrain are hard to measure. I wouldn't have guessed missing the high by 3 degrees today, either, based on conditions/modeling. Must be a lot of snow still laid up in the valleys and hollers out here. 

Another unique thing about this event is that it may be the most destructive in such a short span for any ice storm I've witnessed in my lifetime. A half inch of ice and 30 mph gusts for 12 hours is bad news.