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OKwx2k4

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Everything posted by OKwx2k4

  1. No problem. The eastern bias thing does get old, even for a person living in the middle. I live in a state that they only care about for about 3 weeks in late April and May (tornadoes) or in summers when we have our typical every other yearly heatwaves so they can blame global warming. Hang in there. I survived the late 90s and early to mid 2000s here when they actually removed snow days from our state schools because we didn't really need them. Needless to say, we have snow days again statewide. Winter will be back. It always comes back. :-)
  2. No elaboration needed. He's too warm west and too cold too far east. That's enough for me. In a -NAO type winter along with NiƱa (especially one that oscillates in strength back and forth quite a bit) the NW to S Central and maybe far SE cold temperature profile is the preferred look for winter. I've had -NAO and -AO in my forecast this year since mid to late August and had my core analogs and weights on them since at least that long. The North Pacific Warm Mode or "Blob" or whatever you would like to call it does have some scientific precedent for creating the downstream effects that were created in 2013-14 and 14-15. There are papers online written about it. I discovered them several years ago and while obscure at times are quite interesting to read. I said that to say that the PDO number is not quite nearly as important as the location and strength of the warm pool. I believe 2002-03 was a -PDO but unless you pulled up the daily numbers from that season you would never know it by looking at the SST's up there. The warm pool being much further west than either of the 2 recent analogs used would tell me simply that the location of EPAC ridging should set further west than 2013-15. Again, that's enough for me. Don't really need a PDO or ENSO number for that one. Either way, I agree with you on a lot of points and I disagree on 1 or 2 but they're not strong disagreements. I believe the west gets some cold but I believe that in late winter the core of winter looks like my temp maps I posted last month. In other words, I don't think we will see a sky-high PNA all winter. I think it will be quite variable. The only part of the west that I'm really really sure will be above average will be the desert SW. It's been in every analog I've had and it is just not going away. I've rattled here long enough but felt like your post deserved a good response. We agree on more than we disagree on, that's for sure.
  3. Also of note, the latest contribution to SOI is -2.xx. It's crashing as we speak. This gives big support for a pretty hefty trough into the central CONUS for the time of year around the 20-22nd, which, of no surprise is now on both models. Should likely see it deepening as we go. Especially within day 5.
  4. I'm on the same page with you guys. This is the most promising thing I've seen so early in the season since '09-10 and '10-11.
  5. I asked the other day but there was a lot of stuff going on at the time. Does anybody have any particular favorites as far as weather stations you've owned? I'm looking to spend a pretty decent amount of money on one so I naturally want it to be a good one. Thanks in advance.
  6. Very volatile Tom. It makes the weeklies not even worth posting about. When it does try to put a trough down in the long range, it tries to shove it down into the west or swings it out over the east coast. I'm a GFS fan for awhile. At least until winter.
  7. Last one for the day. For you folks up north. The Brazilian says it gets real in about 2 weeks.
  8. It's still way early but the GFS says any warm ridging will be short lived. Looks like our new pattern has some endurance.
  9. Congrats to the Cubs! I don't have a team I like this year so why not them!
  10. He's got the worst east coast bias of anybody I've ever followed but he's generally correct. Just too far east. He really cherry picked some of the most east biased analogs for his forecast and as such he has a really washed out looking cold pattern for the winter.
  11. You talking about the Christmas blizzard of '82 or the storm system around the 2nd of the month that caused the massive severe weather and flooding with a tornado outbreak in Arkansas. (A LOT like the December storm system last year)
  12. I'm growing more and more confident that the Gulf is safe for the rest of this season but my opinion isn't much.
  13. Yeah. I posted it under October obs but my worries about this being a brown warm winter here are now officially zero. Just for a safety net of objectivity though, I'll go 10% chance that I have a warm winter. 25% Normal to slightly cool winter and 65% cold to frigid. Snow is going to do what it's going to do.
  14. Yes they definitely are some great developments. By my studying and analogs, along with other more recent developments, I literally have less than a 10% chance of having an above average temperature /below average snowfall season. In other words, it would be extremely hard to screw this one up. :-) I'll look into 82 again. If I remember correctly it had a very nice arctic outbreak or 2
  15. Very nice. I hadn't checked the blog today, but in the last week or so, I have noticed a huge amount of differences as well. Awesome stuff.
  16. I thought I was slightly going on a limb the other day when talking about where there should be a trough. Sounds like the models finally put 2 and 2 together. :-) Bring it on. If this is the pattern we get then I think I will really like it when it fully matures in DJF.
  17. Awesome! The subfreezing line briefly made its way into Oklahoma a little while ago for a couple of hours in the Panhandle. It's so dreary looking outside right now but it feels so refreshing!
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