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Everything posted by OKwx2k4
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September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Going to be a bit of a sketchy night out there folks. The 2-3 inches of rain isn't a need. Not in the fashion we're going to receive it at least. Lol. However, old school lore says thunder in Autumn is good for snow. Starting to see a pattern I like developing. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Really glad for the nice soaking rainfall this morning. Looking ahead, looks like we literally hold the same temps for 8-10 days straight and then a good crash is imminent. Going from 80/60 to 70/45 is going to be a good drop off but that crosses over into next month's discussion at this point. Very glad to see our friends up north picking up much needed rainfall. Texas should see more precip later in the season as we near late-autumn. -
@Black Hole I'm really still OK with a trough in the west at this point in the game, as the westward shift in Niño hasn't really had its effects yet along with the Bering Sea still shuffling into place. That last map is the perfect mid-autumn map. It's all coming together perfectly for cold, in my opinion. Can almost just feel it in the air this year it seems like.
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September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Going to be quite a day in some parts of our state, for sure. This is definitely quite a pattern shift we have seen and much more exciting at least than "day x of heat and drought". Although not saying its cold or even cool yet for most by any stretch. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
That's crazy stuff. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Basically, if this happens or even close this winter, I'll be in snow or precip for like 7 days straight. Those maps are a HUGE blessing for those suffering drought and I'm thrilled to see it. @Iceresistance, these storms look like they've got a little thump in them. Will be a bumpy evening. -
With the AO going flat neutral for a time, will be a great 2 weeks to see the other factors influence our atmosphere and also observe the seasonal pattern progression. Really, as some said already, watching the west coast, enso and Bering Sea weather progressions. Would love to see a southern branch develop as we go forward.
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September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
There's good stuff all over that run for crossing into October. I agree with the emphasis on "long range" but realistically that's where this is headed. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Yeah. When it retros from GOA to Aleutians, we're in business. Lock it in! -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
I hope we all like rain. After this event kicks it off, we're going to look and feel like the Seattle of the south with all the clouds for the duration of the forecast. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
I know I did speak of late-season storms razing the NE coast and "fish storms" but actually at an "invest" and 14 storms, I got the max wrong. We'll see this pattern blend into our winter pattern. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
With a flurry of hurricane activity these last few weeks, I've undershot the total of named storms to date at 15. I believe my max was 15 total with 3-5 majors, so I'm wrong. Wouldn't have guessed in a Niño year that we would have spiked so high in total ace, but they're definitely not all the same. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Looking ahead through the week, our friends in the Rockies of Colorado and points NW look to record their first snowfalls if the GFS holds up. Worth noting that for Colorado this is a month early or so as its first snows average in October. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
These laye September heavy rains coming up in the forecast remind me yet again of the 2000, 2001 autumns along with 2009 and 2010. Looking more and more like something special is shaping up in our future weather patterns. -
A good look at today's enso probabilities. I like how it reflects the thoughts of an earlier peak (per ideas of Tom, Black Hole and myself) as well with what could be a target of November as max. Whether we cross and stay at the +1.5°C in 3.4 will just have to play out and see.
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@Black Holedid a great job there. A blended and delayed 2009 is still my top analog and i'll be honest, I'm nervous at what that entails seeing as I absolutely know this progression to close September is a new pattern. It looks like an '09 and 2013 mashup if I had to do it from memory. If 2013 would have had any at all imput from an energised southern branch or any real "phasers" at all, it would have made a very great winter into a legendary one. I want to add another factor that leads me to cold conclusions over warm and that is our retrogression coupled with the setup rolling through the Bering Sea along with the tri-pole of warm piols in perfect places up there. This tells me that the endless dumps of cool dry air into the Central Pacific are shutting down (responsible for Hawaii's drought). In fact, checking models right now, shows it. When that's closed off and you see low after low after low literally slamming the Aleutians, you can bet something impressive is on its way.
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This is a non-canonical, non- major Niño. It's evolution to west based is underway and its decline has begun. Most typical standard El Niño forecasts are based on 2 events. 1997-98 and 2015-16. This is none of that. Typical Major Niño events peak in January, we get flooded with Pacific air til March and suffer through a cold spring. This event peaking 1.3c in Sept/Oct is going to radically shift that progression forward. I love snow, but wrong is wrong and right is still right. I've pretty well held my forecast since spring and called out my own flaws, so I'd believe that my biases are all in check. You won't hear me forecast a "record winter", just the same as it was impossible to call the extremes we have witnessed this summer. I will say that in the southern and Eastern 2/3 of the country, we should see above average snow.
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September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Yeah. Was coming on to note, that while there are still some large HP ridges still advertised in the longer range, both major models now starting to make those very transient and as upstream responses to incoming storms. Big, broad-scale troughs looking to roll through the eastern 2/3 of CONUS throughout the period. I think it is only a matter of time before these cold air masses find a continental polar source as our friends north of the border look to begin seeing their snowy season kick off in earnest. Also, there are a lot of flooding risks developing or already in place for some our friends in the NE states. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
I bet that feels like a sigh of relief. Was just saying how glad I was to see that. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Next 100 or so hours around my region look like autumn perfection followed by a late reminder of our summer before I believe this pattern finally starts to cave all the way. It'll put September basically on the lukewarm side of average if it all plays out. Will have at least a better base of data to look at in the next few days. Glad to see a cold front deliver all the way south of the Red River. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
One truly unique thing this month is that there are an unusually high number of trees which have broken out in bright yellow splotches. Definitely very likely heat stress and surface drought-related from end of summer, but I haven't saw trees change this early in years. Probably 22-23 years. Can't remember which. I'm split on whether or not the overall foliage season will be good or bad. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
That's a nice good wall of water headed east on radar. Looking forward to it! Definitely an autumn feeling day today. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
I'm sitting at a nice cool 60 degrees this morning. Fall is officially here in green country. I couldn't be happier. Going to be a beautiful season. -
September 2023 Observations and Discussion
OKwx2k4 replied to hawkstwelve's topic in East of the Rockies
Glad to hear thunder and rainfall returning to my area tonight. Doing some record searches for fun I discovered that September has an incredible temperature range at Fayetteville Arkansas. The all-time high is 103 (tied on 3 other occasions), and the all-time low was 31. It has frosted three times in September since records began there in 1949. Makes June, July and August the only 3 months here which have not recorded frost or freeze. I don't believe we will see that this year, but it is interesting. Of the coldest Septembers on record, only 2009 at 15th place ever went on to produce a great winter. However of the memorable warmest and driest episodes in September history, 2000 being a prime example and 2013 as another, the winter that followed was epic.