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About snow_wizard

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    The Snow Wizard

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    Covington, WA

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  1. I am going to really enjoy this weekend. Our first nice shot of chilly air albeit short lived. Sunday looks potentially crisp.
  2. We're in a solidly cool air mass right now. I think they should improve on their min. Right now it appears the weekend mins will be a lot cooler.
  3. It's like the changes shown for the weekend have kind of reshuffled the deck. I hope this run is onto something.
  4. I think it will come down to how warm the 29th nd 30th get. No doubt the next 4 days or so look pretty cool.
  5. I'm pretty impressed with the changes that have taken place in the models for this weekend. What looked like a warm and gross washout has morphed into a much drier and cooler interlude. This should be enough to assure we will come in below September 1967 for temperature average.
  6. One good thing to be said for this turd of a month is it effectively takes 1933 off the table as an analog. That September was very cool and wet.
  7. Parts of WA are going to be downright water logged the next few days. OR could still have something to worry about if we get strong east winds with the coming death ridge.
  8. Cold troughs will come. The kind of extreme ridging being depicted this time of year with a Nina is about as close to a guarantee as you can get the hammer will drop a bit down the road.
  9. Looking at the insane warmth on the 0z GFS reminds me of the insane warmth in early Nov 2010. Just three weeks after that the hammer dropped with an epic reversal and very cold weather for the NW. Like this year it was a first year Nina cold season. I think the chances are better than not we will see a big crash after that monster ridge sets up. Reversals are common with such extreme patterns.
  10. At some point it is going to flip with the Nina. 1988-89 was one of my favorite winters and it got off to a very slow start that season. I'm guessing at least one decent cold snap in October. We shall see.
  11. You don't know anything for sure. It could turn cold later this year and stay colder than we have been accustomed to for decades. We don't know enough about the solar aspect yet. As I said earlier in a bout 50 years we will have a very good idea after going through the grand minimum.
  12. I have yet to hear the climate change fear mongers address how it's possible we have gone from full blown ice ages to conditions similar to present multiple times over the past few million years when man was a total non factor.
  13. The grand solar minimum is a definite curve ball that may result in things going in a completely different direction than most people think. As it is some scientists believe the warmth the past few years is mainly due to the oceans releasing excess heat stored up during the recent solar grand maximum. Nobody can deny the sun is the one X factor (besides possible man caused warming) that may account for much of the warming over the past several decades. We will know much more after this grand minimum finishes playing out. That should be in like 50 years.
  14. I'll be interested to see if there is a reversal with a deep / cold trough before the firehose sets in. At any rate sometimes first year La Nina seasons are slow starters.
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