primetime

Worst kind of road setup IMO is where temperatures have been above freezing, then they fall into the mid 20's or lower...snow falls at a good clip and partially melts on the roads, then over a short period of time, freezes hard....no one can drive on snow that has partially melted and refrozen into a hard, icy crust.

http://i66.tinypic.com/286zpyw.gif

Euro Ensemble 5 day avg for days 10-15. For a 5 day average, this is a strong signal for the big Bering Sea ridge http://i64.tinypic.com/2mg5nx2.gif

Days 9-10 on Euro looks like a money setup for lowland snow, right? Not my area

Check that Phil. The years on the analog maps are for the end of winter (Jan-Feb), not Dec....so, their years look to be mostly cool ENSO.

-NAM and STJ increase??

They had ocean effect snow flurries in Jacksonville, FL today

Excellent post newbigmack. You do a good job of presenting your thoughts in a well thought out and organized manner. Keep up the good work. It's a shame that posts like this garner less attention than the run of the mill post on the 300 hour GFS. The questions I would have are.....was there something during the fall that would have given us a clue that the walker cell behavior was going to be more nina-like for Dec? And do we expect it to remain nina-like through the winter?

Phil - do you have any new thoughts (big picture) as we go into the heart of winter?

No problem. I'd personally like to see it dump east of the Rockies given my location, but the Euro Ensemble is wanting to focus the cold moreso in the western and central states. GFS Ensemble has it farther east...but hard to go against the Euro Ens in a model war.

12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range. Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

Appreciate it...thanks

bigmack - Is there a site where we can see these images updated, or is this a one time image? Thanks

Phil - thanks for the updates in here.

Phil - when you say tropical forcing, just wondering what this is based on...MJO, CCKW, VP Anomaly progression? What are you looking at to know the tropical progression?