Phil

The impressive speed of this CCKW across the Pacific is another indicator the niño is losing its grip on higher frequency elements of tropical forcing.

The last 2 months have already established a warm CONUS pattern which, when manifesting during post-niño springs, almost always precedes warm summers nationally. This bears striking resemblance to spring 2010. Only difference is cool anomalies aren’t as prevalent (I suspect the same will hold true during the summer).

This would be a closer match to 2010 than 2012. Because 2012 wasn’t coming off a strong niño, where-as there are still niño-like elements to the current base state (albeit attenuating). Of course there will be subseasonal scale differences as well. Unwise to project from any analog pool alone.

You don’t have a point. The context was *leaving town* on a day with desirable weather, to a destination with more desirable weather. Not *returning home* to desirable weather.

You feel a lot of things.

A more in-depth analysis of the event from Rollenbeck at al, 2022: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/4/824 Note the murky overlap between EOF(s) defining niña-modoki and niño-costero. The truth is ENSO has multiple spectra, and the niño 3.4/ONI metric is out of date (and should be done away with entirely) because it fails to capture several components of ENSO variability.

The 2023/24 niño emerged from a niño-costero event. First time we’ve seen that type of evolution before the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift. This is fascinating stuff when you really dig into it.

This is an informative read: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-017-0151-8

I think you know the answer to that one.

The Niño 3.4 number doesn’t tell the whole story. There was a healthy, quasi-stable niña low pass signal during the first part of that winter. The atmosphere was well coupled. There was no major intraseasonal event (MJO/SSW et al) that could have torpedoed the base state like that. Not only did it abruptly fall apart without warning, but come February the atmosphere had coupled to the niño-costero signature as if it was a mature niño event. That’s not supposed to happen. It’s cute you think it’s as simple as a cursory glance at the niño 3.4 number, though. I used to think that way..when I was 11yrs old.

Colorado-like diurnal cycle today. 35°F at 7AM to 71°F by noon. Will miss this come July when it feels nastier at 9PM than it did at noon.

You have T-mobile? I’ve only heard awful things about them.

I always get the in-flight WiFi too. Can only play sudoku and minesweeper for so long

It’s healthier to talk about your feelings as opposed to bottling them up. Try it sometime.

That’s not true for me, but we’re all different I guess. We used to go skiing in UT and I enjoyed snow events there just as much as here. One of our trips actually lined up with a historic spring storm there, went to bed with strong SE winds and drizzle, woke up to 12-18” of snow and strong W/NW winds. I’m still salty I slept through the overnight chaos..the progression of weather conditions basically mirrored a strong miller-B nor’easter out here.