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Everything posted by Tom

  1. An interesting Blog article written by Judah Cohen touches on a few key points regarding the Polar Vortex status and what may lie ahead. I mentioned in this post (a day before his post), that I see signals the Snow Advance Index (SAI) could be quite high this season across Siberia. He seems to be siding with that general idea as well. What's noteworthy, is the weakened state of the PV thus far, this early in the season. As always, it's a "to be continued" wait and see how the strat behaves. The PV is a wild card like in every season. The article is an interesting read if you have the tim
  2. After analyzing model data, I'm still trying to figure out if the clipper sliding down this weekend is part of the new LRC or a mix of both the old/new pattern. It's fairly evident that the blocking evolving across the Arctic right now is certainly much different than last year. The placement of all the block across the Northern Hemisphere are rather interesting to me. I'm pretty certain that we will be seeing influences of these blocks over the coming cold season. Every year about this time, I try my best to figure out Day 1 of the new LRC and I'm beginning to see some clues fr
  3. The Mitt is going to be on fire over the next few days...high rez models picking up on some real heavy Lake Effect rain showers..possibly thunder??? Why not open up October with some LES up in the U.P.????
  4. Happy Hump Day! I can't believe today is the last day of September. Overall, I'd say its been a great month of weather that practically gave me everything I would have asked for. A fantastic Labor Day weekend followed by some cooler and wetter weather. Then we had an extended dry and tranquil weather pattern which was perfection. Now, we are capping it off on a cool and somewhat wetter note. I'm really looking forward to October as it looks to provide somewhat of that same flavor with many ups and downs.
  5. On my morning walk, it felt kinda chilly and my hands got cold actually. It's also wonderful to see how much brighter the mornings are now without the smokey skies. Atm, there are pristine blue skies with a slight wind out of the NW and there was a heavy dew on the grass. Many trees starting to slowly change color.
  6. It's a chilly and calm morning with a temp of 46F. Instability showers are in the forecast today as the NW Flow continues. Indoor temp down to 66F but I'm not biting yet to turn on the furnace. Might wait till the Thu-Fri period when the real chill hits the region. Happy "National Coffee Day"...cheers to everyone who enjoys their morning cup of coffee!
  7. LR clues why I believe the Eastern CONUS will have a Winter this season: 1) CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and especially holding the colerd waters near ENSO 3.4 region (-2C peak in Dec) 2) NE PAC Ridge will be a driving influence across North America 3) Scandinavian/Ural Blocking (models trend stronger with blocking as we get closer in time) 4) Sub Surface cold pool is positioning itself across the central/eastern PAC... Lastly, the question remains, if and when we will have a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event. This is th
  8. #RealAutumn....has arrived! It's going to be a busy week around these parts as I see a couple more good chances of precip besides today's stratiform/post-frontal rain event. A rotating piece of energy around the backside of the monster trough in SE Canada looks to bring a wave through on Wed/Thu along with LE rain showers. The clipper type system showing up over the weekend is interesting to say the very least. Very amped up pattern around here which is a great sign...finally... 00z Euro the wetter of the bunch through this weekend...
  9. It started raining just before I hit the sack last night around 9:00pm and it has continued steadily throughout the night. Perfect stratiform rain you'd expect in the Fall. Local reports of about 0.59" which is about how much the models were showing. It's the first precip we've had in over 2 weeks!
  10. Surprise rains across E NE from today’s storm system??? How is out there?
  11. Some LR thoughts on this beautiful Sunday morning...I'm paying close attention to the wx pattern thousands of miles to our NW, near the Gulf of Alaska, where today a powerful and rare early season storm system is poised to thrash the SE coast of Alaska with Hurricane Force winds. My brother and his family have a cabin near the Kena coast where they had some great Salmon and Halibut fishing last month. Over the next week, this part of the North American continent is going to get lambasted by 4 storm systems in a week long barrage. Take a look at the 00z GEFS animation below...
  12. Just like many of you yesterday, we got stuck in a low stratus deck all day long, thus, temps only topped out in the upper 70's instead of mid 80's. I was hoping to get some vitamin D but nature had different plans. Gusty SW winds continue to blow before the CF makes its way here this afternoon. Is this the last mild morning of 2020??? It's a very warm 68F right now and with the windows open it does feel kinda nice. Took a look at the models and we may have a SLP to track after all??? Both NAM's show a SLP tracking up along the trailing CF and strengthening up into the Mitt on Monday
  13. Not the sunny day the models were advertising. Low stratus deck is hanging on tough over N IL. Kinda sucks because I wanted to enjoy some vitamin D!
  14. Ya, I don't necessarily take it verbatim, but the Euro weeklies were also showing a strong CF towards the end of the month and if you utilize the BSR for any LR prediction, it would fit also.
  15. Fired up an October thread... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/3496-october-2020-observations-and-discussion/
  16. As we wrap up the month of September early next week, we will enter one of the more important months of Autumn that provides us clues what mother nature will have in store as we get deeper into the colder season. Some major changes in our wx pattern are dialing up as we open up a brand new month. Significant high lat blocking seemingly develops right at the start of the month as the new LRC develops, first, way up north in the high lats (good sign) and then trickles down into the mid-latitudes about a week later. What are the models showing??? Let's discuss.... The clues I
  17. Woke up this morning to the sound of a SW breeze and mild temps in the mid 60's (64F). Feels like a warm and slightly humid July morning (DP 61F). Looking forward to spending time outdoors today and enjoying this summer-level warmth. My lawn sure would like a decent soaking rain but it looks like the models are drying up a bit for early next week. Anything will help at this point. 00z Euro still advertising a decent rainmaker with the frontal boundary...boy, it sure did trend away from the front-runner/GL's storm....all good, bc its very early in the season and its just nice to
  18. This is indeed concerning out in your region of the Plains states because I don't see any real good chances of precip in the extended.
  19. After analyzing both the Euro and JMA weeklies from yesterday, it does look very likely that the eastern CONUS will have the coldest open to October in possibly a Decade believe it or not. All intents and purposes, it appears this Autumn is going to provide the eastern CONUS with a different flavor and what the western Sub has dealt with in recent October opens. You can thank the +PNA which I jumped on a couple weeks ago according to the N PAC pattern and utilizing the BSR as a wonderful long range forecasting method. The SER is will be all but non-existent throughout the month of October f
  20. Happy Friday! #TGIF...what a great day to take off of work if you could do so and enjoy what appears to be Summer's last grasp, at least for this region. I think I may even venture off to the beach on Saturday as it will feel like mid-summer with temps pushing the upper 80's (86F) amidst strong S/SW breezes, minimal wave action with an offshore wind. Models are wavering back and forth for early next week. The 00z Euro took a step back while the GFS took a step forward in developing a SLP along the frontal boundary that tracks up into the GL's region. 00z GEFS...classic Pa
  21. I was thinking the same thing over here while taking a walk the other day. It does seem like that early cold spell in Sept really kicked things off and the cool nights and warm/dry days are certainly helping along with plenty of sunshine. We may be having a banner year for fall colors this year. I know up north, they are reaching their peak season and some gorgeous colors are showing up in the Northwoods and Arrowhead of MN. https://www.travelwisconsin.com/fall-color-report This weekend is shaping up to be a fantastic weekend for the outdoors
  22. 972mb just east of Lake Superior...let's see if trends continue today...its a complex set up whereby a southern piece forms along the front and phases with the northern stream energy diving S/SE out of NW Canad and into the GL's region...fascinating to say the least...
  23. It's another comfortable, cool and calm morning here today with a temp hovering in the upper 50's (57F). Wash, rinse, repeat....I could get used to this but I'm afraid my windows will be closed by this time next week and my furnace will be activated for the 1st time this season. Speaking of next week, BIG changes brewing on the Euro/Ukie for early next week as both models are suggesting a "Pan Handle Hook" type of storm system to traverse the Southern/Eastern Sub Sun-Wed and bombing out near the GL's. Woah, this is quite the change and fascinating to say the least. What a way to finis
  24. Taking a stroll around the neighborhood this morning and I’m seeing more trees starting to turn color. Starting to look like Autumn !
  25. I spotted something this morning when flipping through the models and if you look at the 500mb pattern across N.A later next week, it almost looks like what the CFSv2 is currently forecasting for the month of October. A glimpse of whats to come??? I'm already anticipating to see an active northern stream this coming season as being one Exhibit of the developing LRC. The BIG difference this cold season will be the Greenland Block that I truly believe will show up in the colder months. This will allow a southerly shift in the storm track. I got this feeling December will continue the theme
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