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jaster220

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jaster220 last won the day on February 26

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About jaster220

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    Pure Michigan!

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    KRMY (Marshall, MI) KAZO (work)

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  1. And???? Pics??? Hoping to get north on Saturday for a few hours myself. Worried that by the time I get another chance it may be too late this year. Already, even down in Marshall a bunch of trees are lighting up. Even saw a hardy tree with color. Pretty sure it was an oak. Both '81 and '82 were early color seasons. The first led to the historic cold/snowy winter while the next led to the first modern era super Nino. My thoughts on this autumn being a Nina is that if winter comes in early it will also exit early.
  2. @ Tom To follow-up on your comment wrt "energized system" in this pattern. This is very 07-08
  3. BOOM! Won't be long now if this pattern remains the dominant one heading thru autumn.
  4. Right now CPC's maps show a normal to BN first half around here temps wise with normal precip.
  5. Hoping so. I am looking for perfect Indian Summer conditions to enjoy before too cold gets here. Nov of 2010 was great around here as an example.
  6. Seems my CWA has the most action attm. Just getting hammered by CFs! Here's a nice AFD outta my office: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 -Periods of showers and tstms tonight through Thursday -Frost/Freeze potential Thursday night and Friday night -Rain system Sunday && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 -- Periods of showers and tstms tonight through Thu
  7. Nice table there. Was going to compare snowfall but I see it is by year vs season. Makes it a bit challenging. Do you have a list of snow totals by season as well?
  8. Dittos for this guy, friend. Yesterday's high of 56F was 24 degrees colder than Saturday's 80F. Add in the contrast between overcast/damp/rainy and wall-2-wall sunshine and the contrast was stark. Not that a 24 deg drop is that huge (heck, that's a hourly obs for our Plains peeps) but it's nice to see autumn temps to finish our BN September in style. Should be a top-shelf day on tap with sun and low 60s around here. Trees are really noticeable already. Well ahead of schedule and especially noteworthy with all the recent frost-less autumns around here.
  9. Same for me. Looking like this first round of rain will end up on the lame side. NBD really since this is the time of year that a small batch of liquid can be stretched a lot further. Besides, as Tom posted several more chances in the near term for SWMI.
  10. Wow, didn't realize the Nina was going to that strength. I remember some research showing that the extreme ENSO states {both + & -} were not too friendly for SMI. Having said that, recent winters have pretty much tossed any notions of expecting a traditional outcome when adding up all the "drivers" within any given ENSO state. I've seen a full on Nino deliver a cold and snowy winter (09-10), and a winter with a raging +AO bring the historic cold n snow (13-14). We even had a Mega-Nino deliver an above normal snowfall winter with (4) major storms (15-16). Then there's the past 2 winters whe
  11. Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active. Things that are in my AFD for this week: Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type Brisk north winds High temps 10-15F below normal Cold core thunder Likely waterspouts Lows in the 30s Possible frost
  12. Nice! The last minute trend I am hoping for here as well
  13. Some of those systems verbatim would indeed get far enough west to "hit the Mitt" (see hot zone map attached) Great stuff Tom - thx
  14. 2017 was horrid hot well into October. I think we've gotten this month to kinda balance that one out.
  15. Nice turn-about amigo. As I said about that GEFS animation, with a high confidence in SLP development and placement, this looked promising. I feel for our Plains Peeps and their drought situation. We've also gone back to at least a surface dryness as my south facing garden and lawn is going brown again. A solid 0.5 to 1" of rain followed by more cloudy-n-cool wx should alleviate the dryness concerns around here. Let's see if this can trend even wetter?
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