ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I feel like running in circles and flailing my arms!We just need to find a way to throw down a little snow cover for everyone before early next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Radar filling in just south of SLE. Fwiw, most models showed mostly sleet/freezing rain south of Portland. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 NAM looks like it's headed in a cold direction in the "long" range. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 31 with ZR in EUG. Salem has bumped up to 34, dp of 21 though... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Radar filling in just south of SLE. Fwiw, most models showed mostly sleet/freezing rain south of Portland. Yeah, would be surprised if SLE saw snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120812/namconus_T850_nwus_53.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Insane improvement on the 6z ensemble. Not one member that isn't below normal early next week. Mean drops to -12 for SEA. That's insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Insane improvement on the 6z ensemble. Not one member that isn't below normal early next week. Mean drops to -12 for SEA.That is impressive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 PDX just came in at 33 with a dew point of 15. Snow or not, today will still get ugly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I feel like running in circles and flailing my arms!I bet that's what you actually do. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Yeah, would be surprised if SLE saw snow. Seems the column is cold enough for snow at SLE right now, just worried about those really anemic looking radar echos. I really can't tell what's even down there from the useless medford radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 You could make a case that all 3 are, tremendous model agreement. Even the 00z EURO which didn't look as good from a 850mb temperature perspective showed 3 freezing or below highs starting next Wed and huge snow/ice storm for PDX Metro/SW Washington on Thursday.The models are still struggling to grasp the pattern progression upstream. Don't spike the football yet. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 925mb 0C line is a little south of Albany right now. It has actually moved slightly south the past hour I guess. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 The EURO run from last night does look better for Friday at least. Crossing fingers. Nice bulls eye over Kirkland, Bothell. 22 currently. Brrr Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Tons of precip around Portland on the HRRR at 3 p.m. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016120813/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f10.png Unfortunately the HRRR is also showing major splitting of the front when it gets up here This is at 11 p.m. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016120813/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f18.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 925mb 0C line is a little south of Albany right now. It has actually moved slightly south the past hour I guess.Mid levels should cool a bit with the onset of precip given the depth of the dry air. Bad side of that is the fact it's gonna take awhile for anything to reach the ground. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 The models are still struggling to grasp the pattern progression upstream. Don't spike the football yet. I'm not but it's about that time where the models need to start converging on a solution. Does this remind you of November 2014 where the Arctic airmass was so bitter cold that it made it's way more West? The huge Arctic Blast was suppose to leave the PNW with little or no cold air but the models trended colder and colder leading up to the event so much that the NWS here was actually forecasting a snowstorm but all we got was sleet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if I even started with ZR/SL. Though Horse Creek about 7 miles east of here at 3400' is still at 20. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm not but it's about that time where the models need to start converging on a solution. Does this remind you of November 2014 where the Arctic airmass was so bitter cold that it made it's way more West? The huge Arctic Blast was suppose to leave the PNW with little or no cold air but the models trended colder and colder leading up to the event so much that the NWS here was actually forecasting a snowstorm but all we got was sleet.I see some similarities to that one but some differences too. Key here is we have the tropical forcing trying to yank us into a +EPO/+AO while the extratropics are trying to maintain the amplified NPAC wavetrain/-EPO. Any flattening of the precursory waveguide over the NPAC (hub for EA/NA torque ratios) could ruin the rest of December..January things change again but instead of 150E forcing we'd like more IO forcing, so lolz. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks like some snow falling on traffic cams just west of Corvallis. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illusion Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Seeing a sleet/snow/freezing rain mix in the Corvallis Albany area. Mainly sleet though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 This is going to be a Portland, primary westside and gorge deal. I doubt many areas south of Wilsonville see much of anything besides cold rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 12z not inspiring. Also don't like where it's going in the long range. Lolz. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 12z not inspiring. Also don't like where it's going in the long range. Lolz.Flip flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 12z not inspiring. Also don't like where it's going in the long range. Lolz.Scared me. **** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 12z not inspiring. Also don't like where it's going in the long range. Lolz.I imagine the 12z must be out to about day 3 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 12z GFS is good enough to get the job done. about ~.4 to .5 in QPF while we are below freezing. Shows 2-3 inches over PDX metro. Better than the 12z NAM I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 12z GFS is good enough to get the job done. about ~.4 to .5 in QPF while we are below freezing. Shows 2-3 inches over PDX metro. Better than the 12z NAM I guess.Score! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I imagine the 12z must be out to about day 3 right now.24 hours. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Flurries breaking out right now...That band of precip is pretty thin at the moment... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 24 hours.Sneaky bastard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Well my place of work is closed for the day so let's do this thing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Sneaky bastard. He should be banned for life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Flurries breaking out right now...That band of precip is pretty thin at the moment...Looks to be broadening as it moves forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Sneaky bastard.The challenge is to guess early on. I think the 12z won't be as good as the 6z. Move over, Flatiron. There's a new resident genius in town! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks to be broadening as it moves forward.I think the radar will actually start to fill in a lot to the south over the next few hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Well my place of work is closed for the day so let's do this thing! My wife is a professor at UP and of course it is open today... I have to go tend to the newborn while she lectures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 4km NAM doesn't look bad. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 The challenge is to guess early on. I think the 12z won't be as good as the 6z. Move over, Flatiron. There's a new resident genius in town!You have no faith in the ensembles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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