December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Just dumping snow here again... c-zone has a nice definition to it this morning and moving SE which is indicative of cooler, drier air moving in. Last night it was moving north.

 

Could be some good accumulation here with a traditional c-zone set over the I-90 corridor.

Yesterday you were worried there wasn't enough precip left to move through? Doesn't look like that's going to melt today either.

[Front Ranger]

Still snowing north of the border too. Been snowing on and off for almost 3 weeks in the BC lower mainland.

It's going to be a special winter for you guys.

[TT-SEA]

Yesterday you were worried there wasn't enough precip left to move through? Doesn't look like that's going to melt today either.

 

More for all of King County... needed heavier precip rates to make this situation work.  

[HighlandExperience]

More for all of King County... needed heavier precip rates to make this situation work.

Yup we got screwed. Mostly cold rain in Issaquah and I could see the snow just above me in the hills. Maybe 200-300 feet above me. Very annoying.

 

Snowwizard must be peeved.

[MossMan]

Yup we got screwed. Mostly cold rain in Issaquah and I could see the snow just above me in the hills. Maybe 200-300 feet above me. Very annoying.

 

Snowwizard must be peeved.

Both Jim and Bryant went on forum silence...they must not have gotten any snow?

[Jesse]

Just dumping snow here again... c-zone has a nice definition to it this morning and moving SE which is indicative of cooler, drier air moving in. Last night it was moving north.

 

Could be some good accumulation here with a traditional c-zone set over the I-90 corridor.

You always get your way.

[HighlandExperience]

Both Jim and Bryant went on forum silence...they must not have gotten any snow?

Most places didn't see snow stick on the ground. Even in Vancouver BC. Elevation made a big difference.

 

Just heavy wet flakes!

[Deweydog]

Both Jim and Bryant went on forum silence...they must not have gotten any snow?

Crazy considering yesterday's setup was an absolute lock.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF - Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122412/096/500h_anom.na.png

[The Swamp]

It sure is fun to track these blasts out 9, 10, 11 days.

 

Just remember.  Those same models can't even get it right at hour 6 or 12.

 

Hour 364 is never a LOCK.

[MossMan]

Even though the winter of 2013-14 had two epic events down here, it was extremely boring outside of those two events which were about 2 months apart. Even if we don't have as extreme an event as those two this year so far has been a fun ride. Salem already has 5.5" of snow which sadly puts them at about their 4th or 5th snowiest winter of the decade...

Even though I have only totaled about 4" through all of these events it has been so fun to start watching the next round of fun unfold on the models while being in the middle of the event we had been tracking...soooo much better than the last several years! Let's hope this cycle continues throughout the winter!

[Deweydog]

You always get your way.

He lives in a good spot for snow.

[Farmboy]

Thank you, DJ for the images w/  excellent analysis!  One of the reasons I keep coming back here..

[MossMan]

Crazy considering yesterday's setup was an absolute lock.

Jim "wasn't feeling it" and Bryant was convinced "nobody would see anything other than cold rain" so I don't know why they would be disappointed if there were no expectations! I would have thought Bryant would have had some snow up there...perhaps he is still out playing it it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS ensemble pretty meh

[Jesse]

He lives in a good spot for snow.

 

Yup. And still moans incessantly/loses his s**t just as often if not more than the rest of us.

 

I will be seeing relatives today and there will be no snow at their houses or mine. Lol!

[Timmy]

Wrf took away any chance of snow here Monday-Tuesday. Merry effing Christmas to me. No white Christmas or post Christmas after models were very strong on both up until 36 hours ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - Definite move towards the colder GFS

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122412/120/500h_anom.na.png

[MossMan]

Most places didn't see snow stick on the ground. Even in Vancouver BC. Elevation made a big difference.

 

Just heavy wet flakes!

My area was a good spot for precip intensity apparently, even sea level had sticking snow In northern Snohomish Co.

[Kayla]

Euro looks to be trending towards the GFS.

[Jesse]

PDX got down to 27 last night. Colder than I expected.

 

Hit 26 here. At least the cold keeps coming back. I still think early January could be a thing.

[Timmy]

Euro looks to be trending towards the GFS.

King gfs?

[Gradient Keeper]

Thank you, DJ for the images w/  excellent analysis!  One of the reasons I keep coming back here..

Thanks and no problem.

[Kayla]

Wrf took away any chance of snow here Monday-Tuesday. Merry effing Christmas to me. No white Christmas or post Christmas after models were very strong on both up until 36 hours ago.

 

Weren't you just complaining about all the snow sticking around on the roads for too long a week ago??

 

This was always a very marginal setup, even more so for Oregon peeps.

[Gradient Keeper]

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.

 

http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

[Deweydog]

Yup. And still moans incessantly/loses his s**t just as often if not more than the rest of us.

 

I will be seeing relatives today and there will be no snow at their houses or mine. Lol!

Sour grapes are extra sour on Christmas Eve!

[Heavy Snow]

Day 5 - Definite move towards the colder GFS

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122412/120/500h_anom.na.png

Euro looks to be trending towards the GFS.

 

The trend is our friend!

[Kayla]

King gfs?

 

For whatever reason the Euro handles cutoffs extremely poorly... GFS definitely seems to be leading the way on this one.

[Jesse]

Sour grapes are extra sour on Christmas Eve!

 

I don't think that term means what you think it means.

[Deweydog]

Praise Jesus!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 - Not sure I like this.... or maybe too exhausted to even know

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122412/144/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

To help me get over our disappointing weather this week the NFL has given me the gift of Tom Brady on Christmas Eve. Thank you NFL and God King Tom Brady.

[Deweydog]

I don't think that term means what you think it means.

Or you just don't like being called out for it.

 

If any of us snow freaks can score some snow for Christmas, I'm all for it.

[Jesse]

I just want to say how much I've enjoyed seeing the consistently chilly weather with snow at times regionally this winter so far. I also don't think we are done with the fun by any stretch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 6 - Not sure I like this.... or maybe too exhausted to even know

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122412/144/500h_anom.na.png

 

Well the GFS ensembles were a big step back. Could be seeing the King EURO lead the way on this one. 

[Farmboy]

Day 6 - Not sure I like this.... or maybe too exhausted to even know

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122412/144/500h_anom.na.png

Looks a bit messy...

[Kayla]

Well the GFS ensembles were a big step back. Could be seeing the King EURO lead the way on this one. 

 

It's almost identical to the 12z GFS through hour 144...

[Jesse]

Or you just don't like being called out for it.

 

If any of us snow freaks can score some snow for Christmas, I'm all for it.

 

Sour grapes would be more like me saying "Oh snow isn't that great anyway. Causes traffic issues and hard to shovel. I'm glad we dodged the bullet down here."

 

I just thought it was amusing how intolerable he has been at points this week then he ends up scoring big, like usual. You would think it was funny too if you weren't being forced into the position of devil's advocate right now.

[TT-SEA]

Jim "wasn't feeling it" and Bryant was convinced "nobody would see anything other than cold rain" so I don't know why they would be disappointed if there were no expectations! I would have thought Bryant would have had some snow up there...perhaps he is still out playing it it?

Jim was pleading with Seattle posters to get excited and post on Thursday night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just want to say how much I've enjoyed seeing the consistently chilly weather with snow at times regionally this winter so far. I also don't think we are done with the fun by any stretch.

 

I have found it fun, but frustrating. I think I am kind of with Jim on that front. Some areas have done better than others. Salem, TT-SEA, Timmy have done very well. People like me, Bryant, Jim, etc... Haven't done quite as well compared to other places. 

 

That said I have not been disappointed overall. Historically the big snows here are January-March, even in recent years despite our overall mild Januaries. 

 

In the end it looks like December 2012 will remain the snowiest December I have recorded up here in 6 years. This month will settle right behind 2013 for cold. So 2nd coldest, 2nd snowiest December in six years. Not bad.