East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

[Phil]

Huge gust just ripped through here. Caused the window glass to pulsate back and forth.

[Phil]

Tough winds with the snow squalls today. Got one on video, easily 50+mph.

[weatherfan2012]

I'm not sure yet. Some of the predictive methodologies might also be erroneous in mistaking correlation with linear causation.

I'm thinking Dalton type minimum now, but could be wrong.

yeah it certainly is complex and even more so to predict.one thing Robert Filex has been completely Hammaring on has been the underground volcanos in reason in part why our oceans have been warm and it's importants in the ice age cycle.he also in his book stated quite clearly that doing ice ages cycles the climate of Chicago tends to sifts south into Georgia plus add on the enso it an interesting on going puzzle to all put togeather.

[Phil]

Anything interesting on the horizon?

Yeah, watching the 20th +/- a few days. Following what could be another New England blizzard, follow-up wave could work if the confluence from departing storm is oriented properly. If not, borderline storm final week of February, and if that fails, one more shot early/mid March.

[weatherfan2012]

Grand total of 0". Lol.

Puked snow for 3hrs but the surface temperatures were just too warm to accumulate. Also seeing a few 50mph gusts across the region today as the pressure gradient tightens.

this was always going to be a high risk failure in our reagion for one the such warm temperatures the last few days and also the fast movement of the storm this was always going to be more of new England storm then anyone else's and seem to have played out that way.I still those think we have more opportunities mid to late febuary even into march and I wouldn't be surprised if we scored on a event or two in our own doing the next few weeks as the pattern may be becoming more favorable for a few weeks.

[Phil]

One of those squalls that roared through here today. As usual it dried out as it rode down the lee of the mountains and ended up being 90% wind, 10% snow.

 

My reaction was due to our heavy table being picked up and tossed in my direction. Both Holton and Bannockburn topped 59mph during this squall, right around the corner from me.

 

Edit: BES hit 68mph. That's less than a mile from me.

 

 

Aftermath. Table kinda rolled around while on the ground, with the umbrella still attached acting like a sail of sorts.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/17D421F0-51C9-41E5-9AD7-DB7BA904662D_zpsmj7wpew7.png

[Andie]

That's pretty breezy Phil. Always interesting to me that you get so much wind where you are. There's a lot of talk about the Midwest and southern plains getting high winds, and we do, but you seem to get it on a more regular basis.

 

North Texas winds will pick up when spring arrives and we usually have nonstop blows of a week or so.

Enough to drive one batty.

[Phil]

That's pretty breezy Phil. Always interesting to me that you get so much wind where you are. There's a lot of talk about the Midwest and southern plains getting high winds, and we do, but you seem to get it on a more regular basis.

 

North Texas winds will pick up when spring arrives and we usually have nonstop blows of a week or so.

Enough to drive one batty.

Few people understand our wind climatology, even I didn't understand it fully until a few years ago, given our average wind speeds aren't very high and don't attract attention. Outside the mountains, it's actually unique to the MD/VA domain west of the Fall Line, thanks to the axial orientation of the mountain ridges to our west relative to the climatological pressure gradient following cyclogenesis. What happens is adiabatic warming/drying on W/NW flow deepens the mixing layer, and frictional torquing/perturbation by the ridges idealizes mass transfer through our domain under a W-E pressure gradient, such that during pressure rises from the west under W/NW steamflow, vertical mixing is enhanced and adiabatically self sustaining, especially under strong insolation, where gusts at the surface can even exceed the 850mb wind speeds in some circumstances.

 

While our *average* winter wind speeds are lower relative to the Midwestern states, we average about 28 days per winter with winds at/above 40mph, about 19 days per winter with winds between 45-55mph, and about 4 days per winter with winds at/above 58mph (high wind warning criteria), almost always out of the W/NW. It's actually not unusual for winds to approach or exceed 70mph at least once per winter. Last April, IAD gusted to 67mph during that gradient event, and gusts exceeded 70mph at other locations. You have to go back to 2011/12 to find a winter where winds failed to reach 70mph somewhere in the MD/VA lowlands west of the Fall Line, and that period still compensated with hurricane Irene in August 2011 (60-80mph along/east of Parrs ridge and the Fall Line) and the great Derecho of June 2012 (60-100mph across most of the region). Then winter of 2012/13 kicked off right away with hurricane Sandy (60-80mph) and followed with a huge wind event in March (60-70mph). So those stretches are mostly meaningless and often surrounded by impactful events for whatever reason.

 

This winter, we have yet to experience a region wide high wind warning criteria event. The mid-February to mid-April timeframe is our windiest period climatologically, so usually that's when they happen.

[Phil]

Note the manner in which the ridges "bend" into something resembling an 's' shape. This is the reason for the peculiarities of our downslope wind climatology.

 

 

http://www.virginiaplaces.org/graphics/ridges2.jpg

[weatherfan2012]

The strong west qbo and the strong pacific jet this winter is a interesting debated case I'm wondering if we had a weaker qbo number 5 or lower even if it was west if the results would have been different.perhaps just like the enso having the index to strong can be a bad thing as it tends to overwelem the patterns to much and in this case the qbo because it was at record strong west levels likey overwhelmed things to much and ruined good timed blocking we may have had other wise had if it was a weaker singal.like wise to strong of a east qbo I'm sure can be a bad thing as well which go's back to the point that you reather see them at low or moderate levels and not overwhelming at most times.those there is I'm sure exceptions.

[weatherfan2012]

Few people understand our wind climatology, even I didn't understand it fully until a few years ago, given our average wind speeds aren't very high and don't attract attention. Outside the mountains, it's actually unique to the MD/VA domain west of the Fall Line, thanks to the axial orientation of the mountain ridges to our west relative to the climatological pressure gradient following cyclogenesis. What happens is adiabatic warming/drying on W/NW flow deepens the mixing layer, and frictional torquing/perturbation by the ridges idealizes mass transfer through our domain under a W-E pressure gradient, such that during pressure rises from the west under W/NW steamflow, vertical mixing is enhanced and adiabatically self sustaining, especially under strong insolation, where gusts at the surface can even exceed the 850mb wind speeds in some circumstances.

While our *average* winter wind speeds are lower relative to the Midwestern states, we average about 28 days per winter with winds at/above 40mph, about 19 days per winter with winds between 45-55mph, and about 4 days per winter with winds at/above 58mph (high wind warning criteria), almost always out of the W/NW. It's actually not unusual for winds to approach or exceed 70mph at least once per winter. Last April, IAD gusted to 67mph during that gradient event, and gusts exceeded 70mph at other locations. You have to go back to 2011/12 to find a winter where winds failed to reach 70mph somewhere in the MD/VA lowlands west of the Fall Line, and that period still compensated with hurricane Irene in August 2011 (60-80mph along/east of Parrs ridge and the Fall Line) and the great Derecho of June 2012 (60-100mph across most of the region). Then winter of 2012/13 kicked off right away with hurricane Sandy (60-80mph) and followed with a huge wind event in March (60-70mph). So those stretches are mostly meaningless and often surrounded by impactful events for whatever reason.

This winter, we have yet to experience a region wide high wind warning criteria event. The mid-February to mid-April timeframe is our windiest period climatologically, so usually that's when they happen.

After the crap fest winter in 2001-2002 we had some great severe weather evens and wind events that spring pretty amazing to go from such a crap borning pattern to severe weather events and wind events glore.

[Phil]

The strong west qbo and the strong pacific jet this winter is a interesting debated case I'm wondering if we had a weaker qbo number 5 or lower even if it was west if the results would have been different.perhaps just like the enso having the index to strong can be a bad thing as it tends to overwelem the patterns to much and in this case the qbo because it was at record strong west levels likey overwhelmed things to much and ruined good timed blocking we may have had other wise had if it was a weaker singal.like wise to strong of a east qbo I'm sure can be a bad thing as well which go's back to the point that you reather see them at low or moderate levels and not overwhelming at most times.those there is I'm sure exceptions.

Well the QBO/NPAC-anticyclone correlation only applies in Niña system states, and this winter wasn't a coherent Niña state.

 

So, when system state was in Niña mode, that NPAC ridge did dominate. When intraseasonal state override weak Niña background, the opposite occurred (as +QBO favors cyclonic state under +ENSO convective state). So quite the volitile pattern this winter. Didn't do much here this time, but plains and western US did swing quite a bit.

[Phil]

After the crap fest winter in 2001-2002 we had some great severe weather evens and wind events that spring pretty amazing to go from such a crap borning pattern to severe weather events and wind events glore.

Every warmer than average -ENSO winter on record has been followed by an active severe season, so yeah maybe that's something we should keep in mind.

[Phil]

That February 20th window..man that has *serious* potential.

 

Just a tiny tweak there will result in a complete phase with the backend shortwave, and subsequently we get a major east coast blizzard.

 

Sometime within the next 24-36hrs we might start seeing some insane looking model runs.

[weatherfan2012]

That February 20th window..man that has *serious* potential.

Just a tiny tweak there will result in a complete phase with the backend shortwave, and subsequently we get a major east coast blizzard.

Sometime within the next 24-36hrs we might start seeing some insane looking model runs.

what is this febuary 15-16 storm deel as that the one many seems hype on at the moment.

[Andie]

Phil, when you describe the winds as such, it is easier to understand as a lesson in physics. Doesn't get so caught up in met mumbo jumbo. Very interesting. Thanks for taking time to write that.

 

Seems my sacrificial newt ceremony will pay off Tuesday. We're expecting .85" to 1" of rain !

77* today and yes, windy.

[Phil]

what is this febuary 15-16 storm deel as that the one many seems hype on at the moment.

So close to a bomb, but need small tweaks to the orientation of the precursory waves.

 

We've struggled with timing all winter, but if we can time this one properly, could be a 30-40" event for someone.

[weatherfan2012]

now is this 15/16 storm the 20th storm threat

you were talking about or is the 20th the next threat after the 15/16 one sorry if I got it confused.

[Phil]

now is this 15/16 storm the 20th storm threat

you were talking about or is the 20th the next threat after the 15/16 one sorry if I got it confused.

Could be either one depending on which waves interact and/or phase, and at what times. You know what I mean? Either one could be "the storm".

[weatherfan2012]

Could be either one depending on which waves interact and/or phase, and at what times. You know what I mean? Either one could be "the storm".

yeah I get what you are saying now and agree 100% going to be a interesting and long week a head as we sort out the details over the next week or so.

[Phil]

yeah I get what you are saying now and agree 100% going to be a interesting and long week a head as we sort out the details over the next week or so.

Yup, 00z is already off to an interesting start by hour 108, will show something different than 18z for sure.

[Phil]

Also, there's a chance this upcoming gradient wind event Sunday night and Monday morning could meet High Wind Warning criteria, though overnight timing limits potential. I'm rooting for it since there's nothing else to root for in the predictable future.

 

Why do the big gradients seem to occur overnight? Haven't had a daytime event in quite awhile, IIRC.

[Phil]

High wind watch just issued for 60mph gusts. Wooohooo!

[weatherfan2012]

Yup, 00z is already off to an interesting start by hour 108, will show something different than 18z for sure.

well you can see from data from last night how these threats can simply just crap the bed completely same pattern and problems as we have seen all winter the Pacific just is not favorable to progressive with the jet.

[Phil]

LWX just summarized the wind potential. This could be a big one if everything comes together properly. While I haven't looked myself, apparently some of the BUFKIT soundings are suggesting gusts will approach 60kts. That would be very impressive, as that's close to 70mph.

 

If this were a daytime event, man we'd get smacked. If the low can deepen a bit faster than modeled, that strong gradient could persist into the late morning hours on Monday, and maybe mix down some real big daddy gusts.

[weatherfan2012]

LWX just summarized the wind potential. This could be a big one if everything comes together properly. While I haven't looked myself, apparently some of the BUFKIT soundings are suggesting gusts will approach 60kts. That would be very impressive, as that's close to 70mph.

If this were a daytime event, man we'd get smacked. If the low can deepen a bit faster than modeled, that strong gradient could persist into the late morning hours on Monday, and maybe mix down some real big daddy gusts.

mines well cheer for this as there is not much else to get really excited about since the storm threats appear to be crapping out so let's rock it on the wind event.

[Andie]

High wind watch just issued for 60mph gusts. Wooohooo!

You really need to live on a mountaintop with your love of wind !

[Phil]

You really need to live on a mountaintop with your love of wind !

Haha, true. What else is there to look forward to? I want anything exciting at this point. The last few winters have been extremely inactive in the long run.

 

I'm desperate.

[Phil]

mines well cheer for this as there is not much else to get really excited about since the storm threats appear to be crapping out so let's rock it on the wind event.

This 100%. I hope we hit 70mph. Time to bend the fabric of reality and pull in a big time windstorm.

[Andie]

Haha, true. What else is there to look forward to? I want anything exciting at this point. The last few winters have been extremely inactive in the long run.

I'm desperate.

I'm desperate for winter as well !!

 

88* today,....88 !

 

Expecting about an inch of 48* rain Tuesday. Ah, yes, that should kill us.

 

If my Mt. Cedar allergies don't kill me, - this will !

[Phil]

Yeah I heard about the crazy warmth down there. At least you'll cool down sharply over the next few days.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah I heard about the crazy warmth down there. At least you'll cool down sharply over the next few days.

some places had 90s and 100s in ok that real crazy that more like June July then febuary way way WAY off for this time of year bad enough those poor folks have to deel with in the summer let alone winter now.hopefully with the declining solar winds we can get back to some real winters over the next few years so bring on the solar minimum lol.I remember the ice age thread you wrote on the old western forums in 2012 I think you brought up alot of good information in it and I agree with the idea yours and Robert Filex that the cycles seem to suggest that the next ice age cycle is due but when and how it all plays out is the hard part to anwer because as you said it may be more liner in system baliced.

[Phil]

High wind warning just issued for gusts to 60mph.

 

Let's do this thing.

[Andie]

Roller coaster temps and Mt. cedar is kicking all our asses. Just give me some consistency.

I am so not ready for spring.

 

The coming ice age will show up both uninvited and likely in disguise. I'm expecting Texas to be dry and temperate, relatively speaking. But other areas north may be getting the butts kicked with temp and wind shifts till it settles in. How long that will take, I don't think anyone knows. But I think the interglacial period is entering its dotage.

[Phil]

Snowshoe WV just hit 70mph.

[weatherfan2012]

Roller coaster temps and Mt. cedar is kicking all our asses. Just give me some consistency.

I am so not ready for spring.

The coming ice age will show up both uninvited and likely in disguise. I'm expecting Texas to be dry and temperate, relatively speaking. But other areas north may be getting the butts kicked with temp and wind shifts till it settles in. How long that will take, I don't think anyone knows. But I think the interglacial period is entering its dotage.

yeah if you look at past ice ages cycles Texas likey was only a few degrees cooler then in today's climate.Robert has stated that the climate of Chicago tends to sifts south into Georga doing ice age cycles which has always interested me to know.

[Phil]

Severe thunderstorm warnings being issued for high winds along the frontal boundary:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BDED1DF9-09C2-4583-BD48-3CAD896A5A37_zpsywycvuht.png

[Phil]

This is actually scary. Some old trees are blowing apart.

[Phil]

DCA gusted to 66mph.

[Phil]

Wintergreen hit 110mph!