Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

TWC posted b4 that my first accumulating snowfall on average is in November (Jaster, that includes you too? I thought you get accumulating snows earlier?!)[/quote

 

Occasionally in October, yes I can. Prolly 70% is in Nov though.

I figure you do, since you get that LES machine kicking in.

[Tom]

Niko, I just found this map n story that was publish back in August of 2014. Not only does it support mby total of 100.5", but I noticed 2 other standouts in the long list of locales. Bloomingdale in Van Buren Cnty where my son's live had almost 170" (166)! I know they mentioned having to clear 36" from their driveway twice. The other one was Maple City, a small Polish community west of Traverse City. Back in winter of 1990-91 I worked near there. They scored an incredible 266"! If that's not the LP record I'd like to know what is?

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/08/season_snow.html

 

Think I'll try to look up some daily snow data for Maple City during that year, should be interesting.

I'm going to have to check out this place one day.  Thanks for sharing.

[jaster220]

I'm going to have to check out this place one day.  Thanks for sharing.

Actually Tom, I think I got that wrong. I'm pretty sure it's the town of Cedar in Leelanau Cnty that holds an annual Polish festival. And it's just a few miles east of MC.

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like Omaha only had one winter worse than 2009-10 since 1960. That was 59-60 a notorious winter for Mich as well.

That was an okay Winter in Lincoln too. The most impressive thing is that Lincoln managed a 20" snow depth in mid-March! A depth above 12'' is impressive any time of the year, so the fact that we managed 20" in met Spring is something else.

[Tom]

I'm trying to do something different this year and created a contest for "First Flake of Snow"...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1646-first-flake-of-snow-contest/?do=findComment&comment=259118

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies control run showing folks from the southern Plains up towards the Lakes see their first 1" of snow by Nov 13th...it even includes our member down in OK!  The EPS mean suggesting by end of Oct that from the Lakes and points west see their first flakes of snow.

[Tom]

Both CFSv2 and the Euro Weeklies look like November opens with a very amplified N.A. pattern that is very similar to this one...

 

[Tom]

Let it snow!  First big snows hit the central Rockies in UT/CO...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/gjt/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/bou/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[Niko]

Let it snow!  First big snows hit the central Rockies in UT/CO...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/gjt/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/bou/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

Tis the season! Let the snows begin.

[Tom]

CFSv2 trends for the month of November...NE PAC/AK/NW NAMER ridge looks like a trending theme...bringing back memories of '13-'14...just sayin'

[jaster220]

CFSv2 trends for the month of November...NE PAC/AK/NW NAMER ridge looks like a trending theme...bringing back memories of '13-'14...just sayin'

 

Well, from a strictly mby focus that's great news. But referring back to WxDecoded's outlook having 81-82 as an analog as well, I'm going to say that my excitement is even greater for that season. If for no other reason, because it was much more share the wealth awesomeness.

 

Remember, that's the season that featured even deeper snow in mby, as well as the season of MSP's back-to-back 18" storms (2 in 3 days!). NMI scored Dec and all of Jan with blizzards and incredible snow depths over the entire region, not just a few counties. The action then shifted south for SMI to score from the last day of Jan (bliz of '82) right through April's final hit. 

 

It was also Illinois' 2nd most severe winter of all time, tying the vaulted '77-78 for number of severe storms as outlined in this historical study: 

 

 

 

..just sayin' 

[jaster220]

Fun facts on that wild winter:

 

 

 

 

What I liked was the dynamic systems as I'm a total windy storms geek..

 

 

 

 

Almost impossible for me to have anything but fun with a 983 mb SLP anywhere in MI, but when they bisect the LP, we usually get some wicked LES due to the "low baro factor". (During this storm, I was actually trying to make it up north for skiing but had to turn back. One of only 3 times in my life that I've been in visibility so bad, you couldn't see beyond your front bumper).

 

 

[jaster220]

CFSv2 showing a wet December:

 

 

 

 

And a chilly MET winter:

 

 

[jaster220]

Could some places in our sub look like this next month??

 

 

 

 

AAM wants to help!

 

 

[Niko]

Could some places in our sub look like this next month??

 

gettyimages-635076814.jpg

 

 

AAM wants to help!

 

DLE4O4gW0AAuLsg.jpg

[Niko]

CFSv2 showing a wet December:

 

DLISqYEWkAAZXcE.jpg

 

 

And a chilly MET winter:

 

DLISphmW4AA0OLE.jpg

Question is, will it be cold enough for the precipitation to be snow.

[OKwx2k4]

I keep on posting my winter thoughts in October Observations by accident, but looking like a great winter is on the way! 2000-01, '08-09, and '10-11 type winter is looking very likely. I'm liking the way the pattern looks this month and really look for a repeating pattern very similar to continue throughout the winter. Think winter ends early this year though which is the sad part. I'm not too sure about that part yet though.

[OKwx2k4]

CFSv2 showing a wet December:

 

DLISqYEWkAAZXcE.jpg

 

 

And a chilly MET winter:

 

DLISphmW4AA0OLE.jpg

Dry for me but dry means snowier and colder here usually. I like the pattern there.

[possum]

been reading this for a good while now and not sure exactly where i would fit in.  (area wise)  i'm in extreme NW Tennessee.  have given up on seeing real snow storms over the past 20 or so years, but i can still hope for cold now and again.  any one have any thoughts on yearly record lows in my area? ( NDJ is all i care about)  

[Tom]

CO Rockies ski resorts are loving the early snows!  #Breckinridge

 

 

 

[Tom]

been reading this for a good while now and not sure exactly where i would fit in.  (area wise)  i'm in extreme NW Tennessee.  have given up on seeing real snow storms over the past 20 or so years, but i can still hope for cold now and again.  any one have any thoughts on yearly record lows in my area? ( NDJ is all i care about)  

Welcome!  I usually would like to see how the pattern evolves through November but best guess is the coldest anomalies will hit in Feb.  Although, depending on when we get our Stratospheric Warming Event's (SSW's), I could see January get very cold for a time.  We need to see how strong the SE ridge and blocking will be this season.  Glad to hear we have a new poster down near the App's.  Could be a big year for App runners. 

[jaster220]

Question is, will it be cold enough for the precipitation to be snow.

 

Even our core winter months (J,F) in SMI feature rain events, so a mix of snow events with wet events is most likely.

 

Even in historic winters, SMI sees some rainers - that big one just a few days after the Jan 2014 PV Bliz still torches my tail feathers. WORST timing I've ever experienced. Only redeeming fact was that it wasn't a 60F and rain like last Dec 26th, so the deep snow pack survived surprisingly well, forming a moisture-dense foundation for the rest of the historic winter. 

 

Here's Albion's daily log (closest daily recording for Marshall area - 12 miles east) showing how just a few days after the bliz brought an awesome snow depth of 18+ inches and high temp of MINUS 1º !, it flipped to two days of 40F and rain, knocking 10" off that beautiful deep snow cover:

 

 

 

 

It's rare for this non-LES region to get that kind of snow depth, so I was quite upset to see it take a hit so hard so fast! But, I'd never experienced a winter like 2013-14 in SMI, only during my yrs in NMI snowbelt. I didn't even think it was possible to have a winter where depths of 15+ OTG would happen for many days during (3) months! 

 

So, when we actually got back to that 18+ depth on the 27th, and then BEAT that by nearly half a foot in Feb, ofc that took a lot of the sting out of the early January melt-down 

 

 

[jaster220]

I keep on posting my winter thoughts in October Observations by accident, but looking like a great winter is on the way! 2000-01, '08-09, and '10-11 type winter is looking very likely. I'm liking the way the pattern looks this month and really look for a repeating pattern very similar to continue throughout the winter. Think winter ends early this year though which is the sad part. I'm not too sure about that part yet though.

 

Well my friend, on that one I think you'll be changing that call    Ofc, at your latitude, spring just naturally comes much earlier than up here in MI. So, you'll need to be more specific where exactly you mean? I would think your place does best with an earlier season more aligned with the lack of sun angle thus MET winter months, whereas I consider the peak time for traditional solid winters here to be from the winter solstice to mid-March. Very much what occurred in 2013-14, though some decent snows were had starting about Dec 10th. I think with an 81-82 analog in play up here, we could be looking at winter conditions extending well past the end of Feb. We just had enjoyed our warmest April on record, so we're due a pay-back, lol

 

been reading this for a good while now and not sure exactly where i would fit in.  (area wise)  i'm in extreme NW Tennessee.  have given up on seeing real snow storms over the past 20 or so years, but i can still hope for cold now and again.  any one have any thoughts on yearly record lows in my area? ( NDJ is all i care about)  

 

Welcome to you possum! So, didn't that mega-bliz start in TN a couple Jan's back? Did it not get your place? The "Dark Knight Storm" or whatever it was called social media (not TWC's name)

[Tom]

Here's a map showing analog years Nov-Mar with a weak Nina, -QBO, and high latitude blocking...

 

 

[jaster220]

CO Rockies ski resorts are loving the early snows!  #Breckinridge

 

 

 

 

So beautiful out there! Would love to hit those slopes, if only once..

[Niko]

Here's a map showing analog years Nov-Mar with a weak Nina, -QBO, and high latitude blocking...

Look at that streak of darker blue color extending over SEMI.

[Niko]

So beautiful out there! Would love to hit those slopes, if only once..

Its a very wet snowfall. Notice on the pavement how the snow is melting away.

 

I definitely need to hit the slopes..only problem is I have no idea how to ski.

[Tom]

Pretty nice run on the Euro Weeklies last night.  Fits the pattern evolving in the Pacific and across East Asia.  Winter is knocking on the door as we approach November.  Beautiful jet cutting underneath blocking all across NW NAMER as trough after trough targets the central Rockies.  Strong signal for a much better winter for the Plains states this season.  Starting to get a little giddy seeing the models paint a much better potential LRC for this year.  FWIW, the EPS through mid November is colder now for the central/southern Plains and its dragging down the 2" mean snow line out from CO/NE/N IA/N WI with much of Canada from Manitoba and east covered by a thick snow cover.  Very positive trends overall.

[Niko]

Hopefully, by month's end, some new "Winter Outlooks" will come out. Looking forward to seeing what they show.

[jaster220]

Here's a map showing analog years Nov-Mar with a weak Nina, -QBO, and high latitude blocking...

 

     Yeah, thru March. No offense to OkWx, but that's not screaming early end of winter scenario imho.

 

Pretty nice run on the Euro Weeklies last night.  Fits the pattern evolving in the Pacific and across East Asia.  Winter is knocking on the door as we approach November.  Beautiful jet cutting underneath blocking all across NW NAMER as trough after trough targets the central Rockies.  Strong signal for a much better winter for the Plains states this season.  Starting to get a little giddy seeing the models paint a much better potential LRC for this year.  FWIW, the EPS through mid November is colder now for the central/southern Plains and its dragging down the 2" mean snow line out from CO/NE/N IA/N WI with much of Canada from Manitoba and east covered by a thick snow cover.  Very positive trends overall.

 

"Starting" ?? 

 

Seriously though, we're about 6 wks from being ready for any heavier snow falling here. Need to get enough leafs off the trees so we don't have an Oct '97 or Oct '06 mess on our hands. 

[Minny_Weather]

Oct '97

You got that too? That was crazy here. I think my part of town got 13". Since the trees still had leaves, numerous roads were blocked and houses had trees on them. I think schools were closed for 3-4 days after that.

[Tom]

default_clap.gif     Yeah, thru March. No offense to OkWx, but that's not screaming early end of winter scenario imho.

 

 

"Starting" ?? 

 

Seriously though, we're about 6 wks from being ready for any heavier snow falling here. Need to get enough leafs off the trees so we don't have an Oct '97 or Oct '06 mess on our hands. 

I think a lot of us near the Lakes will have bare trees showing up by Halloween with the potential for multiple freezes before the end of the month.  When I say "giddy", i don't necessarily mean to see snow (although I wouldn't mind) but more so the evolution of the new pattern.  That's all.

[Niko]

Tbh, very few trees around my area have become half way bare already.

[Tom]

#InconvientTruth...Sept logs record ice gains across the Arctic last month...the most since 1987 when records began ...

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-28/inconvenient-record-arctic-sea-ice-growth-september

[jaster220]

I think a lot of us near the Lakes will have bare trees showing up by Halloween with the potential for multiple freezes before the end of the month.  When I say "giddy", i don't necessarily mean to see snow (although I wouldn't mind) but more so the evolution of the new pattern.  That's all.

 

Ahh, gotcha. Yes, for sure, anything has to be more active (exciting) than what we've endured for months around here. Heck, one notable event a month would seem amazing right now. Can't hardly imagine something like Jan '82 with a record 8 

[Jaycee]

You got that too? That was crazy here. I think my part of town got 13". Since the trees still had leaves, numerous roads were blocked and houses had trees on them. I think schools were closed for 3-4 days after that.

 

I wasn't here, but I've heard about it a whole bunch. Can't believe these totals for October, WOW!

 

 

 

 

 

People also seem to forget in Omaha that we actually recorded 6" of snow on 10/10/10. I can say with confidence that an active October more than likely leads to an active December, so hoping these trends keep happening!!!

[jaster220]

#InconvientTruth...Sept logs record ice gains across the Arctic last month...the most since 1987 when records began ...

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-28/inconvenient-record-arctic-sea-ice-growth-september

 

Umm... fact check?? Article date is 2017 but all the charts, vid, etc are from last yr..

[Niko]

Detroits Upcoming Winter Season:

 

 Updated on August 15th, 2017....a little old. Hope this outlook stays the same when more, new updates develop.

 

https://patch.com/michigan/detroit/farmers-almanac-2018-winter-forecast-released-metro-detroit

[Niko]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

 

I like the fact that Alaska is expecting to have above normal temps. Usually, that spells cold for us, at least in this portion of the country.

[Tom]

Umm... fact check?? Article date is 2017 but all the charts, vid, etc are from last yr..

Not sure, but when I clicked on this link below it shows the trends...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php