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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18


Tom

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Here's an update on the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover as Russia/Siberia is onto a fast start in the snow advance dept...

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

 

Northern Hemisphere...

 

 

multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

Eurasia...

 

multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

 

 

00z GFS showing a lot of snow expanding westward in the coming 10 days...

 

gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

We 'should' see this pattern over Eurasia (as well as the entire N Hemispheric pattern) advance back east from the 20th of this month through Mid November if the rising PDO has anything to say about it. If it doesn't, it will be a Western winter, Eastern and southeastern torch year.

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I can remember 88-89 from an Okie standpoint. It was a really harsh winter here. I remember it distinctively being the first time in my life saw the news talking about subzero temps in Oklahoma City while reporting during a ground blizzard. A large, heavy snowfall ended the winter in March with over 18-24 inches in 24 hours of wet heavy snow over eastern Oklahoma. One of the most varied and extreme winters I've known about.

I'm going to assume that it was pretty insane further north and west of here.

Unless my memory is completely shot, quite sure that was a dud season where I was in SEMI. If southern regions were hit hard it must've been a NINO or Nino-like winter.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Unless my memory is completely shot, quite sure that was a dud season where I was in SEMI. If southern regions were hit hard it must've been a NINO or Nino-like winter.

It was a weird winter. I lived out in OKC back then. Iirc the blizzard wasn't noted for snow amounts but just bitter cold 40 mph winds. My dad lived in Eastern Oklahoma where we do now and we came to visit him for spring break the week after his chicken houses fell in.

 

Think 87-88 was Nino. 88-89 was weak Nina or neutral. Lot of Ninas finish here with a late snow event. Must've went straight west-east vs cutting up the lakes.

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We had a ton of crazy flooding up here in SE Wisconsin and NE Illinois. Is that going to translate into anything? I mean, usually you get an optimistic 10:1 ratio of snow inches to rain inches. And we had a week with a ton of rain. It just seems like we had a ton of really big rainstorms out here this summer.

 

I hate to be a dreamer, but look

 

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-rts-2013.gif

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-rts-2017.gif

 

I got the info from here: http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/7cities/madison.html

 

I noticed the last few winters we had that were awful, we were at average or below. Seems like if we have a wet summer and spring, the next winter is good. I looked at 2010 was above average too, and it had some pretty big winter storms in Wisconsin.

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We had a ton of crazy flooding up here in SE Wisconsin and NE Illinois. Is that going to translate into anything? I mean, usually you get an optimistic 10:1 ratio of snow inches to rain inches. And we had a week with a ton of rain. It just seems like we had a ton of really big rainstorms out here this summer.

 

I hate to be a dreamer, but look

 

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-rts-2013.gif

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-rts-2017.gif

 

I got the info from here: http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/7cities/madison.html

 

I noticed the last few winters we had that were awful, we were at average or below. Seems like if we have a wet summer and spring, the next winter is good. I looked at 2010 was above average too, and it had some pretty big winter storms in Wisconsin.

What about 2000-01 or '01-'02 for your area? Similar to this year also?

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Unless my memory is completely shot, quite sure that was a dud season where I was in SEMI. If southern regions were hit hard it must've been a NINO or Nino-like winter

88/89 was a strong La Nina year. Grand Rapids had 62.4" of snow that winter with Feb being the coldest and snowiest with 25.1" Detroit only had 25.1" of snow that winter.

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I'm hearing the new Euro Monthlies are turning colder for November...December looks to be really cold across our sub forum into January.  Feb-Mar a flip to warmer.   The new weeklies come out today and I'm anticipating that trend to continue given the main drivers of our weather pattern to continue.

 

Meantime, the latest NMME is showing a cooler central PAC and warmer NE PAC (+PDO this winter?) compared to its previous run.  These are big trends in the N PAC and positive ones for a better winter.  La Nina looks to be still on track.

 

 

DLr_lXcVoAAaZSW.jpg

 

 

 

 

The response from the ring of warmth in the NE PAC has a warmer NW NAMER and cooler eastern CONUS...

 

DLsE8maUQAAr82Q.jpg

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Meantime, the latest NMME is showing a cooler central PAC and warmer NE PAC (+PDO this winter?) compared to its previous run. These are big trends in the N PAC and positive ones for a better winter. La Nina looks to be still on track.

 

 

DLr_lXcVoAAaZSW.jpg

 

 

Another thing I'm looking for in the next weeklies is AO. Last run showed a trend to +AO as November ended, so I'm excited to see if that was a one-time fluke.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Another thing I'm looking for in the next weeklies is AO. Last run showed a trend to +AO as November ended, so I'm excited to see if that was a one-time fluke.

Something that I look for that usually sniffs out a -AO is if the models are seeing a warmer Strat.  GEFS have been doing real good forecasting long term trends in the Strat.  With that being said, they are showing big warming over the Archipelago suggesting some disruption to the PV Week 2.  This should lead to a -AO pattern so, I'm as curious as you are, if the Euro Weeklies head more towards a -AO state.  CFSv2 weeklies are still on board with the flip end of Oct into Nov.

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It's still early in the season, but something is brewing across Siberia/Russia and south of Greenland.  Typically, these strat warming events cause a reaction 2-3 weeks down the road.  Could this lead to a -NAO as we close out Oct into Nov???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

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I can remember 88-89 from an Okie standpoint. It was a really harsh winter here. I remember it distinctively being the first time in my life saw the news talking about subzero temps in Oklahoma City while reporting during a ground blizzard. A large, heavy snowfall ended the winter in March with over 18-24 inches in 24 hours of wet heavy snow over eastern Oklahoma. One of the most varied and extreme winters I've known about.

 

I'm going to assume that it was pretty insane further north and west of here.

 COLD!!!!  not much snow, but VERY COLD!!  and that is what i want.    i just hate 33 and raining.  

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It was a weird winter. I lived out in OKC back then. Iirc the blizzard wasn't noted for snow amounts but just bitter cold 40 mph winds. My dad lived in Eastern Oklahoma where we do now and we came to visit him for spring break the week after his chicken houses fell in.

 

Think 87-88 was Nino. 88-89 was weak Nina or neutral. Lot of Ninas finish here with a late snow event. Must've went straight west-east vs cutting up the lakes.

 

88/89 was a strong La Nina year. Grand Rapids had 62.4" of snow that winter with Feb being the coldest and snowiest with 25.1" Detroit only had 25.1" of snow that winter.

 

I knew it wasn't a Nino (86-87 was), and the strong Nina would explain the poor snow situation. I like to peruse the historical data for SMI, and I find that just looking at peak monthly snow depths paints a really accurate portrayal of how a winter was overall. For instance, a great depth takes consistent cold and snow-on-snow due to settling, sublimation, etc. Now, I just "snap-shotted" 88-89 for KFNT (was living just east of there at the time), and yeah, it totally vindicated my memory of that very lame winter. Now, KFNT (Flint) isn't known for LES, but the better winters will hit double-digit snow OTG, sometimes like in 2013-14, 81-82, 78-79 (the best yrs) they'll hit 15-20" depths. When the deepest is 4", that tells the story of what a horrid winter that was, coming off a very frustrating winter of 87-88 when systems hit one county south, and one county north all season. But even with that, the peak depth at KFNT was more than double 88-89. Wow, hope I never have to re-live that kinda stuff again!

 

 

 

EDIT: TWC had a decent video on the upcoming winter and they showed temp and precip anomaly maps for (3) levels of Nina. Strangely, a strong Nina actually pushes warmth further north, whereas the closer to neutral ENSO, the more the cold penetrates into the CONUS. Precip was less drastic variance, but again, weaker Nina would be best for southern GL's region. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So, "back to the future" of our impending winter.. ;)

 

Can't help but feel that Snowday's going hit a bulls-eye again like they did (4) yrs ago. BAMwx's prolly the next closest with their axis of Above Normal snow, but Snowday's is locked and loaded based on this next 7 days being the new LRC pattern.

 

 

 

Snowday is seriously inviting NE peeps to the winter party of 2017-18

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, BAMwx's telling NE peeps to "just be happy we have you at average, you're NE after all"

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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BAMwx has also tweaked their DEC outlook. No chg to precip, but they've tightened a gradient of sorts between the cold plains states, and what they feel will be a strengthening SE Ridge due to the Nina. 

 

With avg temps for SMI portrayed, we'll either get lucky with tracks like 07-08, or we will prolly be looking at the typical first real snow in the last 10 days of the month.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Let it snow!  Let it Snow!  Let it snow!

 

It's snowing along the I-70 corridor in CO where I wish I was at the moment.  I remember the Eisenhower Tunnel and the beautiful landscape in this region.  Snow is flying and it will likely allow for some ski resorts to open very soon...

 

 

Eisenhower tunnel...

 

 

Vail...the beautiful Aspen's are already past peak color with snow flakes flying...

 

 

 

Click on this link if you love seeing snow capped mountains...

 

https://snowbrains.com/race-to-open-update-natural-snowfall-cold-temperatures-this-week-could-be-the-one/

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Winter's not waiting for autumn out there is it? Ofc, I have a snapshot pic from Nov 11, 1983 at my folk's place when we got a solid 4" snow with the yellow leafs on the trees still. That was really rare back then in SEMI. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The latest Euro seasonal is showing a fast start to winter....

 

BAMwx folks shoulda consulted this model projection first, lol. I think it's capturing the flatter divide between warm and cold over the S. Lakes vs that classic Nina SE Ridge trajectory they published in their new update today. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Something that I look for that usually sniffs out a -AO is if the models are seeing a warmer Strat.  GEFS have been doing real good forecasting long term trends in the Strat.  With that being said, they are showing big warming over the Archipelago suggesting some disruption to the PV Week 2.  This should lead to a -AO pattern so, I'm as curious as you are, if the Euro Weeklies head more towards a -AO state.  CFSv2 weeklies are still on board with the flip end of Oct into Nov.

 

With all the talk of solar minimum leading to a series of frigid winters starting soon (now??). This recent spike in sunspots would lead one to think "hold that thought"! 

 

Now, Idk if spots and flares go hand-in-hand or they are totally separate events with totally different impacts? I remember some years when ill-timed solar activity ruined a winter that looked promising (05-06?). But, I've also heard that they can "help lock a pattern in". So, again, not sure if the recent solar "perk-up" is to be added in the plus column or the minus column tbh? 

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:D  :D  :D  How many smiley faces can I post at once? Is there a limit?  :lol:

 

Euro precip anom maps for D,J,F,M  

 

 

 

 

 

 

(if I controlled the wx, every autumn would be this way..)

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:D :D :D How many smiley faces can I post at once? Is there a limit? :lol:

 

Euro precip anom maps for D,J,F,M

 

2017109 Euro moisture anoms for Dec 2017.jpg

2017109 Euro moisture anoms for Jan 2018.JPG

2017109 Euro moisture anoms for Feb 2018.JPG

2017109 Euro moisture anoms for Mar 2018.JPG

 

(if I controlled the wx, every autumn would be this way..)

Someone may be measuring snow depths in yard sticks this year! Impressive to see, now we need Mother Nature to deliver the goods.

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Someone may be measuring snow depths in yard sticks this year! Impressive to see, now we need Mother Nature to deliver the goods.

And that ofc, is just the precip not temps, which right now the Euro only shows Dec cold with Feb as a torch month all over NAM. We said before though that seasonal isn't really the EC's strongest suit.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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And that ofc, is just the precip not temps, which right now the Euro only shows Dec cold with Feb as a torch month all over NAM. We said before though that seasonal isn't really the EC's strongest suit.

The precip anomalies are very similar to the CFSv2 though. I'll take it for now.

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New Euro weeklies are out. Showing a troughy pattern in November, but it's pretty warm biased imo. Still showing a trend to +AO.

The Aleutian Low becomes a dominant N PAC feature as well as the NE PAC ridge around the 23rd/24th of October.  Everything seems to be falling into place for a good pattern come November.  I think you guys out in the Plains will see hints of snow before months end, if not, then almost certainly early November.

 

Notable shots of cold: 10/28-10/30, 11/11-11/18, 11/19-11/24

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New Euro weeklies are out. Showing a troughy pattern in November, but it's pretty warm biased imo. Still showing a trend to +AO.

 

 

The Aleutian Low becomes a dominant N PAC feature as well as the NE PAC ridge around the 23rd/24th of October.  Everything seems to be falling into place for a good pattern come November.  I think you guys out in the Plains will see hints of snow before months end, if not, then almost certainly early November.

 

Notable shots of cold: 10/28-10/30, 11/11-11/18, 11/19-11/24

Didn't we have a +AO/NAO winter couple years back that produced plenty of cold and snow for areas south and east of the plains? I recall KC and Chicago having a really good winter with a massive blizzard; possibly the GHD storm??? 

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Didn't we have a snowy winter couple years back that produced plenty of cold and snow for areas south and east of the plains? I recall KC and Chicago having a really good winter with a massive blizzard; possibly the GHD storm??? 

I'm not sure what winter your thinking of but the GHD-1 storm was Feb '11 and from what I remember, if it wasn't for the Blizzard, the winter would have not been at all that nice.  Spring came about 10 days later and by mid Feb the snow pack was gone.  I hate when that happens!

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The precip anomalies are very similar to the CFSv2 though. I'll take it for now.

Agree with u that it has a better handle on the precip. And with the recent coaster ride of temps, cannot rule out the same during winter, but the departure maps don't give me that vibe tbh.

 

But we did have that exact scenario in one of the analog seasons 89-90. Early winter pattern followed by a Jan torch (which ended in NWMI with their 2nd 2-foot blizzard).

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Didn't we have a +AO/NAO winter couple years back that produced plenty of cold and snow for areas south and east of the plains? I recall KC and Chicago having a really good winter with a massive blizzard; possibly the GHD storm???

 

 

  

I'm not sure what winter your thinking of but the GHD-1 storm was Feb '11 and from what I remember, if it wasn't for the Blizzard, the winter would have not been at all that nice.  Spring came about 10 days later and by mid Feb the snow pack was gone.  I hate when that happens!

Correct! 2013-14 featured a mostly positive AO, the EPAC warm blob delivered for us in the Lakes.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Didn't we have a +AO/NAO winter couple years back that produced plenty of cold and snow for areas south and east of the plains? I recall KC and Chicago having a really good winter with a massive blizzard; possibly the GHD storm???

I just re-read your post and yes, we did have a winter with a +AO/NAO...it was the infamous '13-'14 season! That was predominantly a +PNA NW Flow season tho and KC did not experience a good winter. Feb '11 GHD-1 was the only share the wealth blizzard I remember.

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Right now, December is not looking all that cold. 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I just re-read your post and yes, we did have a winter with a +AO/NAO...it was the infamous '13-'14 season! That was predominantly a +PNA NW Flow season tho and KC did not experience a good winter. Feb '11 GHD-1 was the only share the wealth blizzard I remember.

'13-'14 was a neutral year. Neutral years still can be good even with a +AO/NAO. With a Nina year approaching, there is less wiggle room.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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